After assessing all of the data and hearing from people we trust, we think that Harris retains the slightest of edges in the “Blue Wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. So those states lean to her in our final ratings—as always, “leans” does not mean “safe.” If the election was a week ago, at least one of these three states would very likely be leaning toward Trump instead.
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina lean to Trump. Of all of these ratings, the lean in Georgia may be the shakiest—a week ago, we would not have envisioned having a serious internal discussion about potentially leaning Georgia to Harris, which may convey something more broadly about how we think the election’s closing days have gone. A Harris win in Georgia (or North Carolina) would likely be predicated on an especially strong Democratic Election Day vote.
Finally, Nevada moves to a very slight Leans Democratic. In Jon Ralston we trust. Nevada is not necessarily a must-win for either candidate, but if things get wild (like if Trump wins Pennsylvania but Harris wins Georgia), it could mean everything.
As a nod to Selzer, we are also moving Iowa from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, as well as the single electoral vote in Nebraska’s 1st District (the one that includes Lincoln), just as a hedge against a possible anti-MAGA explosion that is localized in the Great Plains. If that does happen, though, the fallout likely won’t be limited just to that region.
If Harris does win, it might be an indicator that the last days of a campaign can matter, even at a time when so many vote before Election Day. We are not going to recount the various headlines from Trump and his allies over the past 10 days or so, but ask yourself: has Trump closed strong in this race? We don’t really think so, nor do many of the people we’ve talked to in the past several days. He also, in our view, has been more prominent down the stretch than Harris has been, which may not be helpful to him—this is mostly impressionistic, to be sure, but think back to when Trump won in 2016: The focus late in that campaign was Hillary Clinton’s emails and her problems.
The difference between the two candidates’ “ground games” also may be important: Democrats are running a traditional field operation, while the Republican operation is decentralized, with figures like Elon Musk very involved. Perhaps the GOP-allied operation will work, but it’s easy to raise questions about it. Republicans also have some reliance on young conservative men, a group that could be tricky to turn out. Democrats have their own longer-standing turnout challenges, particularly with nonwhite voters and their own youth cohort, although their expanded white college bloc is of course a very high turnout group.
Anyway, this is where we end up. Maybe we’re just grasping at straws, but straws are the only thing to grasp in an election with signals as mixed as this one. As we’ve said before, it would not be a surprise if either candidate won.