2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

[Wibble]

In Australia you only have to line up subject to the availability of a decent democracy sausage.

The democracy sausage and the Bunnings sausage - 2 great Australian institutions.

 

[Morty_]

He is done electorally if he loses. There is no chance he runs in 2028 - already now he is falling apart. Maybe he will take on a Godfather type role in the GOP, where he endorses the people that have kissed his ass the most for their races, but I could also see him just retreating to playing golf and eating McDonald's in between his court cases.

Imagine he endorses his son, Trump Jr, and with a bit of help from the RNC, gets him through the primaries.

His sons are fairly lame, even Jr, so that would be a gift for democrats in 2028.

 

[surf]

Trump is the republican party until the day he dies. The republicans were a vacuum after Obama won and he filled it.

True, in the sense that Trump revealed who the republicans are, i.e. made it acceptable for them to present their worst tendencies and beliefs. The party won't change much because they are mostly like him in their politics.

 

[calodo2003]

What is your prediction?

Harris / Walz & it won't be particularly close.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Imagine he endorses his son, Trump Jr, and with a bit of help from the RNC, gets him through the primaries.

His sons are fairly lame, even Jr, so that would be a gift for democrats in 2028.

Don Jr. and Eric have zero of the "charm" and charisma that made Trump successful in politics. They are just extremely whiny, and one of them seems like a massive cokehead. I seriously doubt they will even attempt a run at the White House.

 

[Carolina Red]

I got a #bringbacktrump ad on mine and no matter how many times I tell it “I don’t want to see this ad”, when I refresh, it comes back up.

Elon is such a bitch

 

[Morty_]

Don Jr. and Eric have zero of the "charm" and charisma that made Trump successful in politics. They are just extremely whiny, and one of them seems like a massive cokehead. I seriously doubt they will even attempt a run at the White House.

Idk, Don Jr appears to be an attention-hog, so maybe he would give it a go.

 

[gaffs]

Well, candidates certainly can't get through a primary without his base, and they aren't interested in compromising much.

Just a feeling, but i think Haley would be the favorite vs Harris, the MAGA-people that stays home without Trump on the ballot, is more than made up with Haley cutting into democrats margins in the suburbs, with independent voters overall.

Trump looks old and tired, does he run again in 2028? I think not, at this point, though, worth mentioning co-chair of the RNC is a member of his family, maybe they will try to get Trump Jr over the line in the primaries, with a bit of internal rigging.

The question that i don't think anyone publicly knows the answer to is, how big is Trump's base? The base being those who were not previously engaged in politics and since Trump, have made it their whole identity? And will they lose all interest if there is no more MAGA and the Republicans turn to Haley.

Does anyone know? I suspect the GOP do know, which is why McConnel didnt get together enough senators to impeach Trump.
Or, maybe they just thought Trump would go away. It didn't help when McCarthy went to kiss the ring in Mar-A-Lago a couple of weeks after Jan 6.

I agree. He looks old and tired. The whole performance is old too. But then, being a candidate again allows him to cry "political prosecution" if and when he is tried in his various cases.

If Haley does run, it depends on how the economy and the country in general is doing in 4 years time. I just dont think the GOP can go back to being "normal" after 8 years of MAGA.

One thing that does worry me about Harris's chances of reelection (which I shouldn't be thinking when she has not even won) is that the momentum she has gained on the back of Roe being struck down wont last, especially when no change can be passed in the Senate without 60 votes. Unless there are 10 (or more) Republicans who decide to allow abortion to be legal federally again, as they can see that they will continue to lose general elections because of it - maybe wishful thinking.

 

[gaffs]

He is done electorally if he loses. There is no chance he runs in 2028 - already now he is falling apart. Maybe he will take on a Godfather type role in the GOP, where he endorses the people that have kissed his ass the most for their races, but I could also see him just retreating to playing golf and eating McDonald's in between his court cases.

I bet you thought the same on Jan 6th 2020? I think everyone did.

 

[Hamnat]

Idk, Don Jr appears to be an attention-hog, so maybe he would give it a go.

He could try obviously. I mean the RNC bought his book to get on the best seller list. And with your Sister in Law running the RNC of course try to continue the grift. But he presents like an angry cokehead. Only Ivanka of the children seem remotely uhm human maybe?

 

[Raoul]

I bet you thought the same on Jan 6th 2020?

He was still young enough to run again and win in 20. If he loses now, he will be toast since he won’t be able to stop his legal cases between now and 2028.

 

[WI_Red]

I bet you thought the same on Jan 6th 2020? I think everyone did.

Honestly, I didn’t. I always thought that Biden would not push for his prosecution out of a sense of “healing” and “unity” and that Trump would survive till 24.

 

[RUUD_10_LEGEND]

I bet you thought the same on Jan 6th 2020? I think everyone did.

I didn't, and I'm being honest. He's the ultimate turd that will not flush and even then, as well as during the trials, I maintained my prediction he'd be back in the WH come 2025.

How I hope that I've been wrong all this time.

 

[Morty_]

I bet you thought the same on Jan 6th 2020? I think everyone did.

Well, i think many thought his base would get him over the line in the 2024 primaries regardless, since its a cult, and they did.

 

[FriedClams]

The US loves to talk about itself as being the “home of the free” and the cornerstone of democracy.

Yet it imprisons a an enormous portion of its minority population and goes to great lengths to limit the ability of its people to vote.

There’s a lot of things about the US I do genuinely love, but my god it’s broken to the very core.

True and not true. The vast majority of people I know just live there normally day to day lives like people in other countries.

 

[FriedClams]

Trump is the republican party until the day he dies. The republicans were a vacuum after Obama won and he filled it.

They would be best placed to find someone who can get behind some liberal ideas, like Pierre Polievre has done in canada.

 

[Mike Smalling]

I bet you thought the same on Jan 6th 2020? I think everyone did.

I can't remember, but I'm not so sure. This is different though, as it has nothing to do with a scandal that is supposed to bring him down. It's about him being physically functional enough to run in 2028, and about him being a the loser of two presidential elections in a row, in that scenario. Also, if he loses he will spend the next few years defending himself a variety of court cases.

I don't think it's even a particularly controversial or bullish statement. I simply don't think we see Trump in another election, if he loses.

 

[Morty_]

The question that i don't think anyone publicly knows the answer to is, how big is Trump's base? The base being those who were not previously engaged in politics and since Trump, have made it their whole identity? And will they lose all interest if there is no more MAGA and the Republicans turn to Haley.

Does anyone know? I suspect the GOP do know, which is why McConnel didnt get together enough senators to impeach Trump.
Or, maybe they just thought Trump would go away. It didn't help when McCarthy went to kiss the ring in Mar-A-Lago a couple of weeks after Jan 6.

I agree. He looks old and tired. The whole performance is old too. But then, being a candidate again allows him to cry "political prosecution" if and when he is tried in his various cases.

If Haley does run, it depends on how the economy and the country in general is doing in 4 years time. I just dont think the GOP can go back to being "normal" after 8 years of MAGA.

One thing that does worry me about Harris's chances of reelection (which I shouldn't be thinking when she has not even won) is that the momentum she has gained on the back of Roe being struck down wont last, especially when no change can be passed in the Senate without 60 votes. Unless there are 10 (or more) Republicans who decide to allow abortion to be legal federally again, as they can see that they will continue to lose general elections because of it - maybe wishful thinking.

Trump drove rural turnout like nobody else, thats for sure, not sure it makes up for bleeding support in the suburbs, but in 2020, with help from the EC, it was enough to almost break even, as we saw.

I agree though, i don't think GOP can go back to the McCain-era of republicans, flaws and all, in 2028, it will have been a really long time since a conventional republican has been on the national ticket, and it will have been even longer since one actually won a presidential race, a republican trying to re-run that era may not work anymore.

But i will point to 2022, and the normal-republicans(for this time) did much better than the MAGA-folks.

 

[mariachi-19]

I got a #bringbacktrump ad on mine and no matter how many times I tell it “I don’t want to see this ad”, when I refresh, it comes back up.

Elon is such a bitch

He’s done. Absolutely done once this election is through if trump doesn’t win. He’s going in bigely

 

[gaffs]

Honestly, I didn’t. I always thought that Biden would not push for his prosecution out of a sense of “healing” and “unity” and that Trump would survive till 24.

I didn't, and I'm being honest. He's the ultimate turd that will not flush and even then, as well as during the trials, I maintained my prediction he'd be back in the WH come 2025.

How I hope that I've been wrong all this time.

Well, i think many thought his base would get him over the line in the 2024 primaries regardless, since its a cult, and they did.

I did not. Yes, he is the ultimate cockroach, but after Jan 6, i thought that would be totally disqualifying. There were GOP Senators saying the same, but they soon fell back in line.

Talked about "Trumps base" in an earlier post. I didnt think the new MAGA devotees would be primary voters, but perhaps they are. Or perhaps this is Trump's party now, regardless, which is why im convinced now that he will run again for 2028, even if he is 8 years older.

 

[gaffs]

I can't remember, but I'm not so sure. This is different though, as it has nothing to do with a scandal that is supposed to bring him down. It's about him being physically functional enough to run in 2028, and about him being a the loser of two presidential elections in a row, in that scenario. Also, if he loses he will spend the next few years defending himself a variety of court cases.

I don't think it's even a particularly controversial or bullish statement. I simply don't think we see Trump in another election, if he loses.

He won't be a "loser" though as it will be a rigged election. His base will think he won in 2016, 2020 and 2024, so rightfully he deserves to run again.

We will see, but i think he runs again so he can pretend he is a political martyr when standing in court. The GOP won't turn on him in that scenario and he has such a huge megaphone and no filter, so acting GOP Senators and Congress members are scared of him.

 

[Blood Mage]

The two Nates seem pretty pessimistic about Harris' chances, we just have to hope that the Selzer poll is the one that matters in the end. I really do worry about what Trump might do this time if he gets back into power.

 

[Sweet Square]

 

[SinNombre]

Based off @InfiniteBoredom and the pod save america, going to follow these counties in GA. NC next

	Type	Polls close	Biden 2020	Trump 2020	Margin abs	Margin %	Turnout	Looking for
GA
Oconee	Rural white	7pm ET	8162	16595	-8433	-34%	84.5%	Trump margins
Athens	College/mixed	7pm ET	36,055	14,450	21,605	43%	67.7%	Dems looking for higher turnout
Fayette	Turning blue, ATL suburb	7pm ET	33,062	37,956	-4,894	-7%	78.5%	Dems are looking to flip this
Cherokee	ATL exurbs	7pm ET	42,779	99,585	-56,806	-40%	76.4%	Has the GOP slide stopped
Forsyth	ATL exurbs	7pm ET	42,208	85,123	-42,915	-34%	79.2%	Has the GOP slide stopped

 

[Sweet Square]

Trumps views on immigration and tariffs are now mainstream. Ultimately large sections of trumpism was successful but it was implemented by liberals.

 

[SinNombre]

Trumps views on immigration and tariffs are now mainstream. Ultimately large sections of trumpism was successful but it was implemented by liberals.

Tariffs as a blunt tool are dumb and the actual implementation was a disaster as one can imagine from a multiple time bankrupt guy but Trump's anti-China policies on IP theft / flooding markets were much needed. As is immigration control on the southern border but that's hardly a Trumpist policy to begin with. Obviously MAGA adds racism to the latter but one can separate necessary policy from the vitriol on the liberal side.

 

[Morty_]

Trumps views on immigration and tariffs are now mainstream. Ultimately large sections of trumpism was successful but it was implemented by liberals.

Now, tariffs was probably more of a left-wing position in the US, but on immigration, he for sure did change things, dems are running on being "tough on the border" all across the US these days.

 

[Mike Smalling]

He won't be a "loser" though as it will be a rigged election. His base will think he won in 2016, 2020 and 2024, so rightfully he deserves to run again.

We will see, but i think he runs again so he can pretend he is a political martyr when standing in court. The GOP won't turn on him in that scenario and he has such a huge megaphone and no filter, so acting GOP Senators and Congress members are scared of him.

This might be just semantics, but he will have run two presidential campaigns in a row that did not end up with him actually becoming president. Even for MAGA people the delusion only goes so far. But it's not really about them, as much as it is about the moderate Republicans and the GOP establishment. If he loses again, they will be absolutely desperate for someone new in 2028, considering Trump has proven not to be viable, and that he will be even more deranged and feeble by then. Especially considering he will have lost to a fairly average Democratic candidate that was forced into running a shortened campaign.

Anyway, I truly hope this hypothetical gets turned into reality, so we can see who is right in 3-4 years time.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

Wouldn't it be a newly randomised order each time it's loaded for a new voter? If not then that's crazy.

It's roughly equal between counties to ensure fairness.

If you have 3 candidates, A, B, C, a 3rd of them will go ABC, BCA, CAB respectively.

 

[Blood Mage]

How soon will NC get called on Tuesday? Will be an early night if Harris takes it.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

Darth Brandon was playing 4D chess all along.

 

[Raoul]

He won't be a "loser" though as it will be a rigged election. His base will think he won in 2016, 2020 and 2024, so rightfully he deserves to run again.

We will see, but i think he runs again so he can pretend he is a political martyr when standing in court. The GOP won't turn on him in that scenario and he has such a huge megaphone and no filter, so acting GOP Senators and Congress members are scared of him.

I know Rs that thought he was a loser after 2020 and immediately wanted DeSantis to be the next nominee. That was until Trump decided to run again and made DeSantis look very small and inconsequential. If he loses again this time, he will be a busted flush, and whatever grip he holds over the base and political establishment will gradually wane, especially as a steady stream of incriminating information comes to light when his future cases go to trial.

 

[SinNombre]

Based off @InfiniteBoredom and the pod save america, going to follow these counties in GA. NC next

	Type	Polls close	Biden 2020	Trump 2020	Margin abs	Margin %	Turnout	Looking for
GA
Oconee	Rural white	7pm ET	8162	16595	-8433	-34%	84.5%	Trump margins
Athens	College/mixed	7pm ET	36,055	14,450	21,605	43%	67.7%	Dems looking for higher turnout
Fayette	Turning blue, ATL suburb	7pm ET	33,062	37,956	-4,894	-7%	78.5%	Dems are looking to flip this
Cherokee	ATL exurbs	7pm ET	42,779	99,585	-56,806	-40%	76.4%	Has the GOP slide stopped
Forsyth	ATL exurbs	7pm ET	42,208	85,123	-42,915	-34%	79.2%	Has the GOP slide stopped

NC

NC
Wake	Raleigh triangle	7:30pm ET	393,336	226,197	167,139	27%	79.9%	Dems need raw numbers to go up
Mecklenberg	Charlotte	7:30pm ET	378,107	179,211	198,896	36%	71.9%	Dems need raw numbers to go up
Edgecombe	Black county	7:30pm ET	16,089	9,206	6,883	27%	71.5%	Check for black enthusiasm and raw numbers
Buncombe	Asheville	7:30pm ET	96,515	62,412	34,103	21%	78.3%	Helene impact - Dem county
Catawba	Rural industrial	7:30pm ET	56,588	25,689	30,899	38%	76.9%	Helene impact - GOP county
Davidson	Rural	7:30pm ET	64,658	22,636	42,022	48%	78.0%	Trump numbers holding up
Union	Charlotte exurb	7:30pm ET	48,725	80,382	-31,657	-25%	78.1%	Has the GOP slide stopped
Nash	Raleigh exurb	7:30pm ET	25,947	25,827	120	0%	76.3%	Has the GOP slide stopped

 

[Sweet Square]

Obviously MAGA adds racism to the latter but one can separate necessary policy from the vitriol on the liberal side.

I don’t think the policy and the racism can be separated. Liberals laughted at the idea of a border wall and called it stupid in 2016 but now they view it as an necessity.

Not to the same level but Trump could be viewed as a mini Reagan figure. Someone who fundamentally shifts American politics for the years to come.

Now, tariffs was probably more of a left-wing position in the US, but on immigration, he for sure did change things, dems are running on being "tough on the border" all across the US these days.

Yeah the tariffs stuff seems to be a mix of Cold War remixing against China and some appeals to manufacturing nostalgia.

The "tough on the border" and overall anti immigration views seem to everywhere in the US.

 

[iKnowNothing]

I can’t believe that after all that has happened, this presidential race is so close. It’s so ridiculous.

 

[Shane88]

And for the gambling degenerates amongst us, the updated Skybet model says;

Trump 8/11

Harris 11/10.

 

[RDCR07]

Is he reliable?

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

I don’t think the policy and the racism can be separated. Liberals laughted at the idea of a border wall and called it stupid in 2016 but now they view it as an necessity.

Not to the same level but Trump could be viewed as a mini Reagan figure. Someone who fundamentally shifts American politics for the years to come.

The tough on border, limit immigration to protect American low skilled workers actually originated with the Democratic Party, look up Barbara Jordan report.

 

[Raoul]

 

[711]

Betfair has Harris 1/4 on to be the popular vote winner but 11/10 against to win the election.

This version of democracy seems to be a bit shit.