2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

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Morty_ said:
Betting markets are trash, simple as that.

I have a very good idea what the average dude thinks like, i'm one, so, again, you go and defend betting markets 70% or whatever chances of Trump winning, its just not very impressive to me, and it should not be for you either.
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Election futures markets used to be a better predictor of elections than any polls. Back when it was just the Iowa Electronic Market and participants were mostly just college students, professors and political nerds throwing down $5-$20 apiece.
"In presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, the Iowa Electronic Markets have predicted final results better than the poll three times out of four."
https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/PAM/PRESS/ScientificAmerican-3-08.pdf

The problem is with these newer markets like Polymarket, is when some whale throws down tens of millions dollars on a single candidate, it obviously completely skews the market and renders it meaningless as a predictor. If they operated as intended with just tens/hundreds of thousands of different people all throwing down a similar amount of money (say $20) then they would likely still be better election predictors than polling.
 
VorZakone said:
I expect powerful Republicans to shift the narrative and try to whitewash themselves, blaming Trump in the process and hoping everybody just quietly moves on from the Trump years. Pragmatism will kick in.

I'm more interested in how Trump's base will react. Which Repub politician will they flock to? They've been knee deep into conspiracy theories and Trump cultism. Are they as enthusiastic about the Youngkin's, Haley's and Rubio's of the Republican Party?
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They've engineered an entire generation of young men who wholeheartedly believe in their culture war bullshit, so I'm not sure there's any way back for the Republicans. Or the world

Trump has done incalculable damage.
 
Stack said:
I really hope you are right. Its going to be interesting once Trump is finally out of the picture as to what happens to the Republican party, they have allowed themselves to be over run by absolute lunatics and I wonder how the more considered republicans will get their party back?
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They need someone like the conservative leader in canada
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Election futures markets used to be a better predictor of elections than any polls. Back when it was just the Iowa Electronic Market and participants were mostly just college students, professors and political nerds throwing down $5-$20 apiece.
"In presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, the Iowa Electronic Markets have predicted final results better than the poll three times out of four."
https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/PAM/PRESS/ScientificAmerican-3-08.pdf

The problem is with these newer markets like Polymarket, is when some whale throws down tens of millions dollars on a single candidate, it obviously completely skews the market and renders it meaningless as a predictor. If they operated as intended with just tens/hundreds of thousands of different people all throwing down a similar amount of money (say $20) then they would likely still be better election predictors than polling.
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Some Frenchman has 30 million on Trump, there was an article about it.
 
Stack said:
At the last election I was following a lot of what was on here and when I had questions on election night there were a few people who gave me clear answers with really helpful information. I thought Trump was going to win and those who replied to my questions during the evening were right on the money.
Again Im thinking Trump will win so Im hoping during the election this forum can keep me up to speed as each states results come in. Its a funny thing how after the last election this thread is going to be my go to for understanding whats happening as it happens
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I'm sure some of the same characters (me, I'm pointing at me) will set up camp in here on Tuesday. Hopefully @calodo2003 can avoid getting banned in the next 48 hours so he can join us this year :)
 
VorZakone said:
I expect powerful Republicans to shift the narrative and try to whitewash themselves, blaming Trump in the process and hoping everybody just quietly moves on from the Trump years. Pragmatism will kick in.

I'm more interested in how Trump's base will react. Which Repub politician will they flock to? They've been knee deep into conspiracy theories and Trump cultism. Are they as enthusiastic about the Youngkin's, Haley's and Rubio's of the Republican Party?
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Even if Trump loses, the power structure of the party would still remain fractured between pro-Trump MAGA loyalists who previously bought into the Tea Party 14 years ago, and quickly embraced Trump 5 years later. That is probably about 75% of the GOP today, mainly due to Trump himself controlling the party's narrative and emplacing loyalists (like his daughter in law) to run the GOP apparatus. The remaining 25% are more in the pre-Trump lane which would comprise the three components that previously made up the US conservative movement.

Fiscal - Obsessed with cutting government to balance the budget and reduce the debt. Also concerned with reducing the power of the federal government and returning it to states. Paul Ryan was among the main cheerleaders for this, as are current members of the "Freedom Caucus".

Military - Basically the NeoCon wing - Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton et al. A general belief that the US should lean forward to use its power abroad, and should continue to make robust investments in the DOD budget.

Social - Mainly evangelicals (formerly known as "the religious right" in the 90s), obsessed with all things anti-abortion and loosening or completely removing restrictions on the separation of Church and State, anti-gay marriage, anti-trans, as well as cultural flashpoint policies such as whether bakery owners must bake wedding cakes for LGBTQ customers, and so on. Their entire MO centered around stacking SCOTUS with justices that would both kill Roe and support their desired restrictions on LGBTQ rights.

In an ideal world, Haley, who appears the least insane among Republicans, would be the logical new leader of the party, especially since she performed well against Trump in the primaries, even after dropping out of the race. But Haley's problem would be that she doesn't check the boxes of the MAGA crowd who will want something closer to the way Vance talks today.

Therefore, it looks like the post Trump GOP will be up for grabs between Vance, Haley, DeSantis, and Youngkin.
 
langster said:

Channel 4 – America Decides: US Presidential Election​

Krishnan Guru-Murthy, Matt Frei, Emily Maitlis and Jeremy Vine will present Channel 4’s coverage from 10pm and they promise an undeniably impressive roster of guests.
They include Boris Johnson, the former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, Michael Gove, David Miliband, Democrat Carol Moseley Braun – the first African American woman elected to the US Senate – and Republicans John Bolton and Sean Spicer, Trump’s former White House press secretary.
There’s also – and why not? – Rufus Wainwright, Grayson Perry and Brian Cox.
Channel 4 is partnered with CNN meaning, it says, it will be “the definitive way to watch the US election in the UK”.
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Well I certainly feel sorry for Democrat Carol Moseley Braun.
 
WI_Red said:
I'm sure some of the same characters (me, I'm pointing at me) will set up camp in here on Tuesday. Hopefully @calodo2003 can avoid getting banned in the next 48 hours so he can join us this year :)
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Well if you were one of those last year you were greatly appreciated. There were people filling in the gaps as polling booth results came in. At one point in one state I thought Trump had won it until people in here were pointing out certain important polling centers results hadnt come through yet. Those people filled in the gaps and the results came in as they predicted. It was pretty fascinating and awesome seeing real time proper knowledge being confirmed.
 
Beans said:
Some Frenchman has 30 million on Trump, there was an article about it.
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30m on the less likely. Enough to swing the betting market odds towards them and make them favourite. Then stick 30m on the other one. Swing it back the other way. You're hedged and make money regardless. Unless it's a draw?
 
Stack said:
Well if you were one of those last year you were greatly appreciated. There were people filling in the gaps as polling booth results came in. At one point in one state I thought Trump had won it until people in here were pointing out certain important polling centers results hadnt come through yet. Those people filled in the gaps and the results came in as they predicted. It was pretty fascinating and awesome seeing real time proper knowledge being confirmed.
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People will have less conviction in their statements this year I think.
 
Raoul said:
Even if Trump loses, the power structure of the party would still remain fractured between pro-Trump MAGA loyalists who previously bought into the Tea Party 14 years ago, and quickly embraced Trump 5 years later. That is probably about 75% of the GOP today, mainly due to Trump himself controlling the party's narrative and emplacing loyalists (like his daughter in law) to run the GOP apparatus. The remaining 25% are more in the pre-Trump lane which would comprise the three components that previously made up the US conservative movement.

Fiscal - Obsessed with cutting government to balance the budget and reduce the debt. Also concerned with reducing the power of the federal government and returning it to states. Paul Ryan was among the main cheerleaders for this, as are current members of the "Freedom Caucus".

Military - Basically the NeoCon wing - Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton et al. A general belief that the US should lean forward to use its power abroad, and should continue to make robust investments in the DOD budget.

Social - Mainly evangelicals (formerly known as "the religious right" in the 90s), obsessed with all things anti-abortion and loosening or completely removing restrictions on the separation of Church and State, anti-gay marriage, anti-trans, as well as cultural flashpoint policies such as whether bakery owners must bake wedding cakes for LGBTQ customers, and so on. Their entire MO centered around stacking SCOTUS with justices that would both kill Roe and support their desired restrictions on LGBTQ rights.

In an ideal world, Haley, who appears the least insane among Republicans, would be the logical new leader of the party, especially since she performed well against Trump in the primaries, even after dropping out of the race. But Haley's problem would be that she doesn't check the boxes of the MAGA crowd who will want something closer to the way Vance talks today.

Therefore, it looks like the post Trump GOP will be up for grabs between Vance, Haley, DeSantis, and Youngkin.
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As I said before I think the powers that be with the Republican Party will be looking to make a martyr out of Trump if he loses this election.

He’s not going to run again as he is ancient and senile and he’s the complete opposite of a constructive force to keep around the party. They’re going to want to build on his legacy without having to constantly kiss the ring and let him and his family run things and siphon money from the party.
 
Stack said:
Well if you were one of those last year you were greatly appreciated. There were people filling in the gaps as polling booth results came in. At one point in one state I thought Trump had won it until people in here were pointing out certain important polling centers results hadnt come through yet. Those people filled in the gaps and the results came in as they predicted. It was pretty fascinating and awesome seeing real time proper knowledge being confirmed.
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In that case I’ll be following this thread.
 


Its a feature, not a bug.

Ohio Republicans passed a law limiting each COUNTY to ONE early voting center. This means Franklin County (population 1.3 million) has as many places to vote as Vinton County (population 12,000).
 
WI_Red said:


Its a feature, not a bug.

Ohio Republicans passed a law limiting each COUNTY to ONE early voting center. This means Franklin County (population 1.3 million) has as many places to vote as Vinton County (population 12,000).
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Looking at people in that video, one can see why Republicans want to make it harder to vote.
 
Just voted - Harris/Walz & Adam Schiff for Senate

Something quite funny: CA uses vertical iPad looking tablets for the actual in person voting. When the screen for Presidential candidates appears, Harris/Walz is the first option, followed by RFK, followed by some obscure candidate I’ve never heard of. Trump is no where on the initial screen. You actually have to scroll down the page to finally see Trump/Vance as an option.
 
WI_Red said:


Its a feature, not a bug.

Ohio Republicans passed a law limiting each COUNTY to ONE early voting center. This means Franklin County (population 1.3 million) has as many places to vote as Vinton County (population 12,000).
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That's absolutely unhinged. I just took a quick look to compare, and as far as I can tell my municipality of less than 15k people had ~30 different polling stations for early voting in the last elections in Norway. Not all open at the same time, of course, and many of the more remote ones only open once, but nobody is ever lacking any place to vote. One of them was the school I work at, so I just voted while on a break.
 
The US loves to talk about itself as being the “home of the free” and the cornerstone of democracy.

Yet it imprisons a an enormous portion of its minority population and goes to great lengths to limit the ability of its people to vote.

There’s a lot of things about the US I do genuinely love, but my god it’s broken to the very core.
 
Raoul said:
Just voted - Harris/Walz & Adam Schiff for Senate

Something quite funny: CA uses vertical iPad looking tablets for the actual in person voting. When the screen for Presidential candidates appears, Harris/Walz is the first option, followed by RFK, followed by some obscure candidate I’ve never heard of. Trump is no where on the initial screen. You actually have to scroll down the page to finally see Trump/Vance as an option.
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Just curiously scrolling down there aye?
 
Rado_N said:
The US loves to talk about itself as being the “home of the free” and the cornerstone of democracy.

Yet it imprisons a an enormous portion of its minority population and goes to great lengths to limit the ability of its people to vote.

There’s a lot of things about the US I do genuinely love, but my god it’s broken to the very core.
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The bit about voting has a lot to do with the federalist system of governance, where each state is allowed to pretty much run elections the way it wants, which is of course silly when it’s comes to national elections. Some states can make it easier, others can make it harder, especially in Republican states.
 
Pexbo said:
Just curiously scrolling down there aye?
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Yep. Wanted to see how far Trump was on the list. He was at the very end, probably because his name starts with a T. Not that it would matter in an overwhelmingly Dem state.
 
Raoul said:
Just voted - Harris/Walz & Adam Schiff for Senate

Something quite funny: CA uses vertical iPad looking tablets for the actual in person voting. When the screen for Presidential candidates appears, Harris/Walz is the first option, followed by RFK, followed by some obscure candidate I’ve never heard of. Trump is no where on the initial screen. You actually have to scroll down the page to finally see Trump/Vance as an option.
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Wouldn't it be a newly randomised order each time it's loaded for a new voter? If not then that's crazy.
 
BD said:
Wouldn't it be a newly randomised order each time it's loaded for a new voter? If not then that's crazy.
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Choices displaying alphabetically instead of automatically defaulting to the two main parties wouldn’t be so unusual here. Although, Trump would squeal like a tortured animal if he narrowly lost a key swing state with such a setup.
 
Raoul said:
If Trump wins on Tuesday, they will probably stick with Trumpsim for some time. :)

Vance as VP would also represent a glimmer of what a post MAGA party may look like. All the demagoguery, but minus the populism.
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They question is, what do Republicans do if Trump loses?

They quickly fell back in line in 2020, even post Jan 6.

I think there is a feeling they cant win without his base, so it may be a case of a candidate in the mould of Trump, or Trump running for the 4th time.
 
Frosty said:
This is utterly crazy.

The 21st century version of this:

https://sharetngov.tnsosfiles.com/tsla/exhibits/aale/pdfs/Voter Test LA.pdf
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Outrageous stuff. And what’s more outrageous is that we see this election after election. If anything, things get worse.

nimic said:
That's absolutely unhinged. I just took a quick look to compare, and as far as I can tell my municipality of less than 15k people had ~30 different polling stations for early voting in the last elections in Norway. Not all open at the same time, of course, and many of the more remote ones only open once, but nobody is ever lacking any place to vote. One of them was the school I work at, so I just voted while on a break.
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It took me like 10 seconds to vote here in Maryland. The instructions were clear: drop the ballot from the car (drive through) and move on.

But then I live in another state than these red/swing states, which feels like another country… that’s the new America for you.
 
gaffs said:
They question is, what do Republicans do if Trump loses?

They quickly fell back in line in 2020, even post Jan 6.

I think there is a feeling they cant win without his base, so it may be a case of a candidate in the mould of Trump, or Trump running for the 4th time.
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Well, candidates certainly can't get through a primary without his base, and they aren't interested in compromising much.

Just a feeling, but i think Haley would be the favorite vs Harris, the MAGA-people that stays home without Trump on the ballot, is more than made up with Haley cutting into democrats margins in the suburbs, with independent voters overall.

Trump looks old and tired, does he run again in 2028? I think not, at this point, though, worth mentioning co-chair of the RNC is a member of his family, maybe they will try to get Trump Jr over the line in the primaries, with a bit of internal rigging.
 
Trump is the republican party until the day he dies. The republicans were a vacuum after Obama won and he filled it.
 
Abizzz said:
Trump is the republican party until the day he dies.
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He is done electorally if he loses. There is no chance he runs in 2028 - already now he is falling apart. Maybe he will take on a Godfather type role in the GOP, where he endorses the people that have kissed his ass the most for their races, but I could also see him just retreating to playing golf and eating McDonald's in between his court cases.
 
Mike Smalling said:
He is done electorally if he loses. There is no chance he runs in 2028 - already now he is falling apart. Maybe he will take on a Godfather type role in the GOP, where he endorses the people that have kissed his ass the most for their races, but I could also see him just retreating to playing golf and eating McDonald's in between his court cases.
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This I can see happen, the latter I truly doubt. He wants to be at the center of attention, it's his drug. Unless he has some mental decline beyond the state he has been in in the last decades he will stay in the lime light until he drops.

More importantly though, the republicans are nothing without him. Old school fiscal responsible small government republicanism isn't a main stream position anymore and they've never replaced it. Unless some other personality shows up that can outshine him he will be their centerpiece for a few years (he's hardly going to live forever). The floridianfeckface tried and look how that went.
 
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