2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

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SinNombre said:
@InfiniteBoredom

Are you looking at Osceola in FL?

FL
OsceolaLarge PR population7pm ET97,29773,48023,81714%72.7%Getting less blue - high PR pop. PA indicator?
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I'm not even paying attention to Florida this cycle, but yes, if it's in play that's one of the place you would look to, then obviously you want the votes to come out in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

For PA the Puerto Ricans are in Philly proper and some of its suburbs so looking at counties alone won't be enough, you have to dig down to precint level. In general, I think Erie, Allegheny, Montgomery and Northampton are good enough indicators as bellweather for the state. If she's competitive/winning all of them and get a strong turnout out of Philly, there aren't enough rural/exurb votes to make up the deficit for Trump.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
VA: Chesterfield
GA: Oconee, anything above 33 for Harris is good
MI: Wayne/Macomb, specifically looking at margin for the latter, anything above 46
WI: Waukesha, anything above 40
PA: Erie, win it or lose by < 1 pt
NC: Wake and Mecklenburg, specifically looking at raw votes number vs 2020
NV: Duh, Clark mails
AZ: Pima/Maricopa.
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What are you looking for in Chesterfield? Suburban voter sticking with the Dems and spillover into PA?
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
I'm not even paying attention to Florida this cycle, but yes, if it's in play that's one of the place you would look to, then obviously you want the votes to come out in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

For PA the Puerto Ricans are in Philly proper and some of its suburbs so looking at counties alone won't be enough, you have to dig down to precint level. In general, I think Erie, Allegheny, Montgomery and Northampton are good enough indicators as bellweather for the state. If she's competitive/winning all of them and get a strong turnout out of Philly, there aren't enough rural/exurb votes to make up the deficit for Trump.
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I am not looking at FL as a whole either. Just wondering if Oceola will be an early indicator for PR voting in the Philly area.
 
RDCR07 said:
Please let Tuesday be the end of hearing his fecking voice ever again. Just need it to stop.
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Well, it won't be, months/years of bitching and moaning will follow.

Consolation is that it won't be as president.
 
I’m increasingly confident that America will reject Trump on Tuesday. Might be hubris induced by consuming a specific media diet, but I do get that feeling. Trump has lost a step and made serious mistakes.
 
It's also not great for Trump that RFK Jr is still on the ballot in Michigan. I think he loses that state definitely.
 
Blood Mage said:
It's also not great for Trump that RFK Jr is still on the ballot in Michigan. I think he loses that state definitely.
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RFK’s stock has completely imploded in recent weeks. At this point, I can’t see who would actually vote for him given he himself has endorsed Trump.
 
Blood Mage said:
It's also not great for Trump that RFK Jr is still on the ballot in Michigan. I think he loses that state definitely.
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Don't really want to get into an argument with people, but i view it as her strongest swing-state too, personal opinion, one could say.
 
Watching some clips of Trump at his rallies
Rambling, but what stood out was how low energy it all is
 
Just seen a video of trump on the apprentice saying he's good friends with Diddy and Diddy is a good guy
Yet the right won't even question why Trump was besties with Epstein AND Diddy
 
Mike Smalling said:
This might be just semantics, but he will have run two presidential campaigns in a row that did not end up with him actually becoming president. Even for MAGA people the delusion only goes so far. But it's not really about them, as much as it is about the moderate Republicans and the GOP establishment. If he loses again, they will be absolutely desperate for someone new in 2028, considering Trump has proven not to be viable, and that he will be even more deranged and feeble by then. Especially considering he will have lost to a fairly average Democratic candidate that was forced into running a shortened campaign.

Anyway, I truly hope this hypothetical gets turned into reality, so we can see who is right in 3-4 years time.
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All of that makes sense but, we are talking about Trump...

He wont admit defeat.
He will say it rigged, which many will believe. This time it will be amplified by Elon etc so may seem more "credible" this time, even if it is a blowout. They are already doing the groundwork here, whereas last time it was all ad-hoc post the loss.
The GOP are scared of going against him as they know that he can rage tweet against any of them and ruin their chances of reelection.
If he is no longer a candidate, he can't claim the trails are political prosecution.
He is a grifter and needs the donation money for his legal expenses, debts etc.
Same goes for selling his crap - bibles, sneakers, watches etc. He is hundreds of millions in debt.
He can't bare to see someone else run and potentially win.
Lara Trump is co-chair of the RNC.
Loves the sense of importance and worship from the cult.
He loves having all his fluffers around him and where he can pretend to be President in exile at Mar-A-Lago.
If he gives up, I think he knows he will wither away and die.

As you say, i hope we get to find out who is right, as it means he will have lost. :lol: Im all for seeing him run again, and again, and again.
 
MiceOnMeth said:
Just seen a video of trump on the apprentice saying he's good friends with Diddy and Diddy is a good guy
Yet the right won't even question why Trump was besties with Epstein AND Diddy
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And nor will the left. Tapes of Epstein saying he was BFFs with Trump, yet the newspapers or major networks wont touch it.

Surprised they haven't given they covered a womans claims last week that Epstein took her to see Trump in NYC where he groped her. These tapes further build on those claims.
 
Sweet Square said:
Trumps views on immigration and tariffs are now mainstream. Ultimately large sections of trumpism was successful but it was implemented by liberals.
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He basically shifted the whole political spectrum to the right. "Normal" republicans are endorsing and voting for Harris and Harris accepts them to the flock. Center and left dont have any other option to vote dems because there is no one else.

And magaRs are far rigth
 
FriedClams said:
They would be best placed to find someone who can get behind some liberal ideas, like Pierre Polievre has done in canada.
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He did what how? I feel like either I didn't get what you meant here, or you don't know Poilièvre's positions/ideas (also within Canada's Conservative Party).
 


Grasping for straws and getting cooked by somebody who actually knows their shit.

One of the best thing that come out of this cycle, hopefully, is Silver going back to playing poker, or at least think twice before hitting send on his terrible political takes.
 
Mike Smalling said:
This specific guy used to take repeated blows to the head as a profession, and it shows.
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A Dutch ex-boxer was on a gameshow and got a really easy question. “If you cut an apple into quarters, how many pieces do you have?”

He got it wrong.
 
Kaush949 said:
A strong Taylor Swift re-endorsement would be lovely. Preferably in person in PA.

But, it seems like she will in KC for Chiefs vs. Buccs game.
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Just have to settle for Lady Gaga and Katy Perry, sad.

Honestly, who cares? The LeBron's endorsement probably helped her more in terms of shoring up support than Swift with young voters.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Just have to settle for Lady Gaga and Katy Perry, sad.

Honestly, who cares? The LeBron's endorsement probably helped her more in terms of shoring up support than Swift with young voters.
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Young female voters will have greater turnout than young male voters though!

And lots of suburban moms that are swifties!
 
Kaush949 said:
A strong Taylor Swift re-endorsement would be lovely. Preferably in person in PA.

But, it seems like she will in KC for Chiefs vs. Buccs game.
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If any endorsement helped it was probably Swifts due to the collective half a billion followers she has across all platforms.
 
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