Has to happen regardless of Trump win or loss. The state of the GOP at the moment is such that a sizable part goes with the Dems (on war policy) de facto and against them on everything else, also de facto. But there will be a redress of MAGA either way, win or lose (for Trump). I expect a two term president after this.
2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed
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That line is insane.
Automatic voter registration upon turning 18, automatic mail in ballots (Washington/Oregon), Election Day being declared a national holiday and/or early voting in person available the weekend before.
The GOP will never win a national election again until and unless they rid themselves of the MAGAs and Tea Party nuts with those measures.
The GOP will never win a national election again until and unless they rid themselves of the MAGAs and Tea Party nuts with those measures.
I certainly do not see Trump winning Iowa, my Mum used to live up near Des Moines, all very oldie staunch midwest typical republicans, nice old folk but still yearn for the good old days, even someone that has tattoos like me was seen as abit "out there"
Them using "Trump Will Fix It" as an election slogan must look weird for Brits.
That line is insane.
That is mad. Do they only offer one polling station?
Absolutely! I don't think they know. Or they do and there's a specific voting demographic they're targeting with this?
Nate Cohn saw Selzer +3 Iowa and raised her Michigan to the right of Pennsylvania.
Heard some brilliant excuses for this.
It's either ai, Trump closing the top tear or the fans are still slowly coming in.
So now that we know Harris will win (I'm 100% confident), will she be a strong enough candidate in 2028 if the Republicans nominate a semi-normal lucid candidate?
Why are you 100% confident?!
That’s beautiful
I wonder what the people there make of it, who hear him contradict the evidence of their own eyes in real time.
Recent momentum, MAGA fatigue, the MSG rally, the Selzer poll, female voters.
Equally could we look at Biden comments and republican confidence and other things to swing it back?
I’m far from confident!
Republican confidence seems fake to me. What's making them confident?
No one should be confident.
No idea! Close polling?
I do agree it might be a false confidence to claim the election is stolen.
No one should be confident with this court + Mike Johnson.
Let’s get 300+ EVs first, then brace ourselves for the chaos.
Let’s get 300+ EVs first, then brace ourselves for the chaos.
She's done this well in my opinion, by speaking to a large amount of the voting public with the words "Trump Abortion Ban". She can wield that with more authenticity than a male candidate, by speaking as a woman to a key woman's issue, and the preventable tragedies as well as state government creep it has brought. If she'd hammed it up overtly I don't think it would have the same impact.
She has absolutely hammered that home at every opportunity and rightly so.
I think Kamala will win but like 51% sure. Nobody can be super confident. If bookies have Trump as favourite, people still need to be very cautious. There was a lot of overconfidence before the 2016 election from the left as there was in the 2020 from the right.
They can make that claim all they want. The Democrats are prepared for that and any violence from Trump supporters will be handled by law enforcement. It may get ugly, but I don't believe the Trump campaign can overturn the election outcome.
I will take it. If she's +2 in Wisconsin and doing as well as Selzer's poll suggests in Iowa then I would be completely stunned if she didn't win all three in the Rust belt. Only losing Arizona out of the battleground states would be a fantastic result. So much for NC being Harris' toughest state. 
I’m not sure how anyone can be as confident as you’re being given in both previous elections Trump performed way better than the polls suggested he would, and it’s always basically 50/50 in them.
A bit on the nose with the whole Epstein connection.
Saw some credible arguments that pollsters are aware of having underpolled Trump in the past and adjusted their methodology so I don't think that will be the case. And also the 2022 midterms presumably were going to be a "red wave" and that didn't quite happen.
The problem with the Trump campaign is that the closing phase has been awful. They lost discipline, Trump himself lost discipline and morale is declining within the campaign.
But will the average person care or even notice? I’m not even sure.
I think Trump will win, but seeing a lot of hope!
That Iowa poll is the single best poll for Harris in the entire campaign! I hope she's right.
I hate that I'm starting to have hope again!
I hate that I'm starting to have hope again!
Jan 6th couldn't have happened without Trump in the White House. Those tactics won't work when the president actually wants to maintain order.
He is due to get sentenced in NYC on 26 November.
If he loses, he may even declare he is running before then. He can't claim "political interference" for this case, and the others, without being a candidate.
He underperformed his polls during the primaries and his MAGA candidates badly underperformed in the midterms. There’s reason to believe pollsters have adjusted, maybe even overadjusted.
I realize the Selzer poll is highly respected and her track record is very good, but is it being over played a little?
There are only 808 participants in the poll. A higher sample would decrease the margin of error.
I was also thinking about a potential lack of advertising from the campaigns in Iowa. They may not have been bombarded by a lot of the negative advertising about Harris, especially the Trans Prisoners attack ad, which is the one the Trump campaign has put the most money behind, meaning they think it is the most effective.
I would just find it wild that Harris could win Iowa by a bigger margin than PA, MI or WI, as she has had very few polls were she has been +3 over Trump in the swing states.
Plus, Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 53.1% to 44.9%. Trump won Texas, Florida and Ohio by smaller margins.
Or are the other pollsters really all herding, as not to be embarrassed on election night?
There are only 808 participants in the poll. A higher sample would decrease the margin of error.
I was also thinking about a potential lack of advertising from the campaigns in Iowa. They may not have been bombarded by a lot of the negative advertising about Harris, especially the Trans Prisoners attack ad, which is the one the Trump campaign has put the most money behind, meaning they think it is the most effective.
I would just find it wild that Harris could win Iowa by a bigger margin than PA, MI or WI, as she has had very few polls were she has been +3 over Trump in the swing states.
Plus, Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 53.1% to 44.9%. Trump won Texas, Florida and Ohio by smaller margins.
Or are the other pollsters really all herding, as not to be embarrassed on election night?
If (very big if) Selzer is right, Harris will win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by a lot more than what the polls are suggesting.
She learned from Hillary and her "Glass Ceiling" speeches in 2016. She has just focused in on the issues at hand and the threat of Trump. She has been risk averse, but also managed not to make very many errors.
Can anyone give a cogent idea of how this tactic would achieve anything. Trump was unable to overturn the result in 2020 when he was literally the president. What could he possibly achieve with Biden in situ.
I certainly can’t.
When/If he loses I suppose he’s going to want to promote the same narrative as last time that it was stolen. Which to an extent probably worked? Tons of Americans think it was stolen.
Dobbs is sufficient to motivate women, make the election about them, not you.
For Clinton in 2016, even ego aside, she was running after a 2 terms Democratic president, needed something as a rallying cry so naturally gravitated towards '1st woman prez'. They almost succeeded as well by ratfecking the GOP with Trump but ultimately got burned by both her unfavs and Comey. Obivious stuffs like running on flipping the court or protecting ACA didn't motivate liberals the same way it did conservatives back then.
For Clinton in 2016, even ego aside, she was running after a 2 terms Democratic president, needed something as a rallying cry so naturally gravitated towards '1st woman prez'. They almost succeeded as well by ratfecking the GOP with Trump but ultimately got burned by both her unfavs and Comey. Obivious stuffs like running on flipping the court or protecting ACA didn't motivate liberals the same way it did conservatives back then.
If the late breaking voters have swung to Harris in the last week, we are going to look back to the MSG rally being the pivotal moment.
It would be funny as feck if the Cheeto Jesus is finally brought down by some random troll’s words and not his own.
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