2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

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Morty_ said:
Read perfectly fine, you started defending them by saying "no one knows whats going on, therefore markets are reasonably close", i mean, you have set it up in such a way, they can never really be wrong, so it is what it is.
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Literally not what I said, but it's very symbolic of how trash the arguments in this thread are.

The fact that I several times said I have no confidence in the betting markets should have been a clue for my confidence in the betting markets, but I guess making that connection is difficult.

Funnily enough, you managing to miss this is an argument against betting markets estimating the real probability of events, but an argument for betting markets measuring people's perceived probability.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
VA: Chesterfield
GA: Oconee, anything above 33 for Harris is good
MI: Wayne/Macomb, specifically looking at margin for the latter, anything above 46
WI: Waukesha, anything above 40
PA: Erie, win it or lose by < 1 pt
NC: Wake and Mecklenburg, specifically looking at raw votes number vs 2020
NV: Duh, Clark mails
AZ: Pima/Maricopa.
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Taking a screenshot of this. Great insight.
 
gaffs said:
Wild that there is a tape of Epstein saying he was best friends with Trump for 10 years, yet the "mainstream media" dont seem to want to cover it...



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There's a line where Trump is quoted saying something about sleeping with his best mates wives is his favorite thing to do. I've heard that before years ago and it didn't surprise me back then either. You can imagine how that got him off and how he would hold it against others too.

Ir's just frustrating more isn't made of things like this. I'm absolutely convinced, like with Cosby, Saville, Al Fayed and the rest, that the media and authorities have info on Trump that they have kept hidden.

How many women in total have accused him of assault? Remember the stories of when he owned Miss Universe? The rape, sexual assault and physical assault of his first wife Ivana story. The list goes on and the pattern is very clear.

I don't know what's worse, him getting away with it all or the fact so many of his voters don't believe it, or that so many of his voters don't give a shit if it's true or not.

In case anyone needed more evidence, here he is yesterday evening at a rally talking about college girls.



Even Fox had to cut away from that.
 
mariachi-19 said:
I’m starting to think the last 4 years of presidency being a nothing burger have reminded people of what it use to be like and the constant fecking drama was too much under Trump.
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I've been thinking that too. People talk about the shy Trump voter, but I think there's a good chance a that lot of Americans just feel like they want the drama to be over, even if they usually lean R. It's pure chaos with him at the helm, even if you attribute some of the blame on the mainstream media for that.
 
Went back and looked at the historic polling. A lot of the talk about Selzers poll is how close she's been, but take it even further.


The Iowa average of polls in 2020 was Trump +1.3, but there were even Biden +1, +3 and +5 polls in that average from really good pollsters.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/iowa/

Selzer had Trump +7. She knows Iowa like the back of her hand.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Interesting promise to make. Don’t understand the bullishness. It’s not like Iowa is Alabama or Kentucky. Trump only won it by 4% in 2020.
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My guess is it’s cope for the latest A+ poll showing Harris leading Iowa.

Although we are talking about American conservatives so the reasons for a meltdown could be endless.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Interesting promise to make. Don’t understand the bullishness. It’s not like Iowa is Alabama or Kentucky. Trump only won it by 4% in 2020.
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He won it by 9 points. That’s why the Selzer poll is so interesting. Either the most reputable poster is way off or Harris will likely win in a landslide that no-one saw coming.
 
Jev said:
He won it by 9 points. That’s why the Selzer poll is so interesting. Either the most reputable poster is way off or Harris will likely win in a landslide that no-one saw coming.
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Oh yeah, my bad. It’s definitely pretty interesting. Trying not to my hopes up too high, but it’s very encouraging.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Oh yeah, my bad. It’s definitely pretty interesting. Trying not to my hopes up too high, but it’s very encouraging.
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Yeah, most likely Selzer is off considering how much of an outlier it is. But it’s a nice possibility to have that she might be right. Even if she’s just 50 percent right, it means Harris will win this thing comfortably.
 
Jev said:
Yeah, most likely Selzer is off considering how much of an outlier it is. But it’s a nice possibility to have that she might be right. Even if she’s just 50 percent right, it means Harris will win this thing comfortably.
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Also, if that poll is somewhat accurate, it could be seen as a vindication of Harris' strategy of reaching across the aisle for the Cheney vote.
 
This is interesting, I might have to revise my map before the final prediction!
 
Still 53-47 Trump as per 538 (I say this because it's the only time of the three iirc that Trump is the slight favourite with 538). Another Iowa poll came in which basically cancelled the Kamala plus poll out.

Very close now. Question. Which network you all going to using come election day/night(maybe even day again)? I have a tradition of switching between CNN and MSNBC and then over to Fox every hour or so to see what lunatick stuff i happening. Been doing it for 20 years.
 
I am surprised Harris hasnt made more off the first female president pitch.

She should have had obama's maybe drilling this point and getting the women rallying behind her.

There maybe counter polarizarion in certain areas but representatively its a huge pitch. Just making the election first female president vs predator.
 
FromTheBench said:
made more off the first female president.
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In a a country which doesn't particularly want that aspect of the whole thing stressed (not really there yet imo) it's a good decision to downplay gender distinctions. If she wins you will of course hear about it for the rest of your life (condensed into four years and that condensed into five hours of CNN madness).
 
FromTheBench said:
I am surprised Harris hasnt made more off the first female president pitch.

She should have had obama's maybe drilling this point and getting the women rallying behind her.

There maybe counter polarizarion in certain areas but representatively its a huge pitch. Just making the election first female president vs predator.
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Maybe because it's obvious? I think she is right in not playing to her identity too much. She didn't even respond that forcefully to Trump's "Is she really black?" bullshit. Let the right play those games.
 
Adisa said:
If he loses, it won't surprise me if he runs again.
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I have him as favourite to win. If he wins/loses I think he takes the least incompetent of his children (the one he can stage an advertising campaign around) and puts that person in line.One of them is a complete political dud. There's another that seems almost useful or capable.
 
Adisa said:
If he loses, it won't surprise me if he runs again.
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Great, 12 years of Democrat rule wouldn't go amiss with how insane the GOP has become - that party is in desperate need of reform. They need to redefine what it means to be conservative.
 
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