2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

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Harris to make surprise SNL appearance.

Went very quickly from 16 to 08 after that one poll on libs twitter, it's kinda insane.
I got the sense the tide started to turn towards Harris after those remarks made by Tony Hinchcliffe about Puerto Rico.
 
I was certain of a Trump victory but less so now. Even if Selzer is slightly off, a narrow Trump lead in Iowa isn't really good enough f he wants to take the rust belt is it?

If it's on point, it might be a sign of states starting to break for her. Trump was up by 18 points against Biden, and 5 points against Harris. If he's truly 3 points behind now, that is not a good sign for him.
 
I got the sense the tide started to turn towards Harris after those remarks made by Tony Hinchcliffe about Puerto Rico.

I don't think anything has changed much ever since the debate between the Harris-Trump debate, people panic over a point shift here or there, when its just noise imo.
 
The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

It's moments like this that either solidify you being the best pollster in the business, or falling back into the field of "polling is broken".

The focus on women being the cause of this huge swing does bode well for the election though.
 
Either the polling industry is completely cooked or we are about to see a Harris romping to a easy win.



 
And in other news :annoyed:


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If correct, we may be in for a few surprises on Tuesday night.



Even if she's wrong. There is no credible argument to say she's going to be THAT wrong. A Harris +3 poll turning into a result of Trump +10 is career ending. A Harris +3 poll turning into a Trump +1 win is "what did we miss" territory. And considering her history, a small miss would tend to be the rational explanation. I think all we should really take from this is that women are the game changers here.
 
Don’t tell me there’s a chance? I have been getting mentally ready for a Trump win for 10 months now.
 
Folks, dems will lose Nevada, but make up for it by winning Iowa.

That would be the wildest election-surprise i could think of.
 
Even if she's wrong. There is no credible argument to say she's going to be THAT wrong. A Harris +3 poll turning into a result of Trump +10 is career ending. A Harris +3 poll turning into a Trump +1 win is "what did we miss" territory. And considering her history, a small miss would tend to be the rational explanation. I think all we should really take from this is that women are the game changers here.

Agreed. She’s got a pretty good track record, so it would be a big deal if she was off by a lot.

 
Iowa: 28-point lead with independent women and a 35-point lead with women over 65.

I wonder if we look back and Trumps "I'm the protector of women" was the biggest moment of the campaign.
 
I thought Harris would win the election months ago, had a bit of a wobble about it a few weeks ago but the disaster of that MSG Nazi rally last week made me optimistic again.

That Iowa poll result is huge, I was reading beforehand than if Trump was up by 4 it would still be a tremendous result for Harris. So for her to be actually up by 3 is amazing, even if she ultimately narrowly loses in Iowa, the fact she's ultra competitive there spells disaster for MAGA.
 


You know you want it, Joe, 11th hour surprise.


we are going to have to preface every conversation now with "Selzer could be a massive outlier...but".

But I wonder, if she is close to the mark, are the pollsters too heavily weighting young men to trump and that is where these across the board +1s are coming from?
 
Trust Atlas Intel to come along to dampen the enthusiasm :lol: Their polling record was very good in 2020.

 
Whew I feel a lot better after the Selzer poll, fingers crossed her track record remains consistent on November 5.
 
Trust Atlas Intel to come along to dampen the enthusiasm :lol: Their polling record was very good in 2020.



Atlas had a very good 2020 but you can’t put them on the same level as Ann Selzer, a lot of the PA analysis I’ve been seeing has consistently been trashing Atlas methodology this cycle in that state. Who knows though, maybe they are right again.
 
we are going to have to preface every conversation now with "Selzer could be a massive outlier...but".

But I wonder, if she is close to the mark, are the pollsters too heavily weighting young men to trump and that is where these across the board +1s are coming from?
By and large they weight by 2020 recall vote, naturally produce tight result.

Pollsters are utterly terrified of underestimating Trump for the 3rd time in a row.

Trust Atlas Intel to come along to dampen the enthusiasm :lol: Their polling record was very good in 2020.


Atlas is Trafalgar level shit pollster who have gotten elections wrong all over the world and even in their native Brazil, and only got it right in 2020 by being naturally biased in favour of conservatives in a broken clock right twice a day fashion.
 


Normie libs: exuberantly talking about Blexas off Selzer's poll

Me: watching aggregators squirm over their models.

We are not the same.
 


Normie libs: exuberantly talking about Blexas off Selzer's poll

Me: watching aggregators squirm over their models.

We are not the same.


God these people are insufferable. Could this be her "massive outlier" that make her look stupid? Always a chance. But we have the data on her record and these tools come out and go "pfft does she even understand what a poll is".

fecking cretins.
 
Looks like betting markets will get it wrong, again, just as they got the VP selection wrong for Harris, maybe they don't anything about anything, after all? Who would have thought....
 
Looks like betting markets will get it wrong, again, just as they got the VP selection wrong for Harris, maybe they don't anything about anything, after all? Who would have thought....

Given that no one knows what's going on, and betting markets are also reasonably close, it doesn't really look like anything. However, betting markets aren't close to mature enough to do what they could be useful for, which wouldn't be to provide a true probability of the result, it would be the population's estimate.

The arguments against betting markets in this thread are even worse than the arguments for the current betting markets, and they're all horrible.
 
Given that no one knows what's going on, and betting markets are also reasonably close, it doesn't really look like anything. However, betting markets aren't close to mature enough to do what they could be useful for, which wouldn't be to provide a true probability of the result, it would be the population's estimate.

The arguments against betting markets in this thread are even worse than the arguments for the current betting markets, and they're all horrible.
Betting market showed anywhere from 60-40 to 68-32 in favour of Trump based on nothing but vibes mere days ago.

It's always colossally stupid to treat those odds as anything but overly inflated, or purposefully gamed. There's nothing in the polling data or publicly available info for the bettors to digest to justify them.
 
I sold Trump at 67 a few days back so looking pretty good right now. @InfiniteBoredom what are the key counties by state that you are looking at, if you have those handy?
 
I sold Trump at 67 a few days back so looking pretty good right now. @InfiniteBoredom what are the key counties by state that you are looking at, if you have those handy?
VA: Chesterfield
GA: Oconee, anything above 33 for Harris is good
MI: Wayne/Macomb, specifically looking at margin for the latter, anything above 46
WI: Waukesha, anything above 40
PA: Erie, win it or lose by < 1 pt
NC: Wake and Mecklenburg, specifically looking at raw votes number vs 2020
NV: Duh, Clark mails
AZ: Pima/Maricopa.
 
Betting market showed anywhere from 60-40 to 68-32 in favour of Trump based on nothing but vibes mere days ago.

It's always colossally stupid to treat those odds as anything but overly inflated, or purposefully gamed. There's nothing in the polling data or publicly available info for the bettors to digest to justify them.

I have very little confidence in the current betting markets. There are several reasons, the main one being that they're way too small and therefore way too susceptible to being moved by "whales", and that's without getting into the weaknesses of betting markets in general. However, with the polls being as close as they are, and polls being as untrusted as they are, there's also very little evidence of the odds being out of sync with the people generally.

A few days ago one of the arguments against betting markets, presented as a slam dunk, was "why would someone bet big money on Harris when it's a toss-up". Arguing against betting markets being useful is easy, but people here aren't doing it.
 
Given that no one knows what's going on, and betting markets are also reasonably close, it doesn't really look like anything. However, betting markets aren't close to mature enough to do what they could be useful for, which wouldn't be to provide a true probability of the result, it would be the population's estimate.

The arguments against betting markets in this thread are even worse than the arguments for the current betting markets, and they're all horrible.

How about this? Gut feeling of some average dude will be more accurate than their predictions.

No, i'm not impressed by them showing 30 something percent for Harris, but then, we are back to the same old nonsense we have been over before, "well, they did show a reasonable chance, therefore they can't be wrong" and all that, its still not impressive in my mind, simple as that.
 
How about this? Gut feeling of some average dude will be more accurate than their predictions.

No, i'm not impressed by them showing 30 something percent for Harris, but then, we are back to the same old nonsense we have been over before, "well, they did show a reasonable chance, therefore they can't be wrong" and all that, its still not impressive in my mind, simple as that.

I'm sorry, but I'm about as interested in your estimate as betting markets', which means not at all, but you said "looks like", which usually indicates some sort of reasoning. There is none.

You say some average dude might be more accurate, and that might be true! However, you have no idea what that average dude thinks.
 
VA: Chesterfield
GA: Oconee, anything above 33 for Harris is good
MI: Wayne/Macomb, specifically looking at margin for the latter, anything above 46
WI: Waukesha, anything above 40
PA: Erie, win it or lose by < 1 pt
NC: Wake and Mecklenburg, specifically looking at raw votes number vs 2020
NV: Duh, Clark mails
AZ: Pima/Maricopa.
I’ll add for WI, keep an eye out for Brown county (Green Bay). Biden lost 45-52, so if Harris beats that she should be just fine in WI. Brown is a great barometer for WI as it is a pretty good representation of the state as a whole. Madison (Dane county) and Milwaukee (city and county) shifts that 45-52 back to 52-48.
 
I'm sorry, but I'm about as interested in your estimate as betting markets', which means not at all, but you said "looks like", which usually indicates some sort of reasoning. There is none.

You say some average dude might be more accurate, and that might be true! However, you have no idea what that average dude thinks.

Betting markets are trash, simple as that.

I have a very good idea what the average dude thinks like, i'm one, so, again, you go and defend betting markets 70% or whatever chances of Trump winning, its just not very impressive to me, and it should not be for you either.
 
Betting markets are trash, simple as that.

I have a very good idea what the average dude thinks like, i'm one, so, again, you go and defend betting markets 70% or whatever chances of Trump winning, its just not very impressive to me, and it should not be for you either.

Do you not read?
 
Do you not read?

Read perfectly fine, you started defending them by saying "no one knows whats going on, therefore markets are reasonably close", i mean, you have set it up in such a way, they can never really be wrong, so it is what it is.
 
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