2022 US Elections

MarylandMUFan said:
I think you have the Dems and GOP flipped around. Dems should be at 48 and GOP at 49. Dems need AZ and GA to keep it at 50.
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Is this right? I think they were 48-48 with four states to be decided: AZ, GA, PA, NV. But the Dems got Pennsylvania, so now they only need one more of the three AZ, GA, NV. Isn't that correct?
 
frostbite said:
Is this right? I think they were 48-48 with four states to be decided: AZ, GA, PA, NV. But the Dems got Pennsylvania, so now they only need one more of the three AZ, GA, NV. Isn't that correct?
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No, they called PA a long time ago. The outstanding 4 were AZ, GA, WI, NV. Wisconsin just got called to the GOP making it 49-48 for the GOP. Looks like AZ will go to the Dems and NV to the GOP and then GA will go to a December 6th runoff to decide the balance.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Looks like a runoff will be needed to restore my faith in humanity but Warnock looking very solid and Walker not getting the Kemp level of support he needed.
Senate looking promising.
House has been a disaster for the GOP. If they win the House but only by 1-2 seats, they won't be able to obstruct at the level they thought they would and the Dems might even be able to peel any moderate GOP Reps still left.
Turns out abortion was moving voters a helluva lot more than the "pollsters" said it was.





Newsom would be the closest. He's winning 58% to 42% now and his lead will likely widen since the rural districts get counted first. Whether Biden would step aside as he claimed he would in 2020 is another story though.



Yes, I was thinking this too. Florida gets a lot of GOP-leaning voters that want a tax haven so the state sees a larger GOP migration than any other. Also, the Hispanic vote in Florida is much more conservative than in any other state.
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Newsom would be my pick to replace Biden
 
frostbite said:
Then I am reading the following wrong. It seems to me D48-R47, with undecided:
AZ
GA
NV
PA
WI

But PA is Dem, and WI is R, so it is D49-R48...


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...map-us-midterms-latest-winners-seats-congress
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The results on that link show Alaska has not been called for the republicans by the guardian as they don’t know between Murkowski and Tshibaka but both are GOP. Likewise Wisconsin which has been called stateside for the republicans. Factor those in and it’s 49-48 in favour of the GOP.
The 48 for democrats includes PA.
The 3 left (no tick next to the name on the guardian list) are AZ, NV, and GA.
 
MarylandMUFan said:
No, they called PA a long time ago. The outstanding 4 were AZ, GA, WI, NV. Wisconsin just got called to the GOP making it 49-48 for the GOP. Looks like AZ will go to the Dems and NV to the GOP and then GA will go to a December 6th runoff to decide the balance.
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Oh I see, thank you!
 
Charlie Foley said:
The results on that link show Alaska has not been called for the republicans by the guardian as they don’t know between Murkowski and Tshibaka but both are GOP. Likewise Wisconsin which has been called stateside for the republicans. Factor those in and it’s 49-48 in favour of the GOP.
The 48 for democrats includes PA.
The 3 left (no tick next to the name on the guardian list) are AZ, NV, and GA.
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And NV is basically going to GOP anyway, right? So essentially Dems need both AZ (close) and GA (close and will be decided only in December). Tough to call. How close is Arizona now?
 
Sarni said:
And NV is basically going to GOP anyway, right? So essentially Dems need both AZ (close) and GA (close and will be decided only in December). Tough to call. How close is Arizona now?
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Much of the uncounted votes in NV is mail in. That skews heavily Dem.
 
calodo2003 said:
Much of the uncounted votes in NV is mail in. That skews heavily Dem.
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Got it. Most of the info I have been getting on these elections is either through Twitter, here or NYT podcast. All the right wing nutters I know here were getting super excited about Republicans steamrolling these elections, getting Trump back and 'putting the world back on the right path' but seemingly it's not happening. Always nice to see right wing nutjobs suffer.
 
California voted down props 27 and 28. Granted I don’t have a nuanced insight into either prop but seems odd that sports gambling is legalized in 35 states but California lags behind
 
Not national but shit like this gives me hope. The "kids" are so much more engaged than my generation was at the same age. Can Gen Z save us? Can we hold on long enough?

 
Okay, it is D48-R49 and the Dems need two of AZ, NV, GA. Thank you to the posters who clarified this!

Worse than I thought earlier today, but still doable.
 
Isn't a 50/50 senate still bad for the Dems as it gives so much power to Sinema and Manchin? I guess its not technically worse, if they get to 50/50.

What was the expectation going into these elections? How many seats were the GOP expected to take from the house & senate?
 
WI_Red said:
Not national but shit like this gives me hope. The "kids" are so much more engaged than my generation was at the same age. Can Gen Z save us? Can we hold on long enough?

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This is really promising and really important too. National races are extremely important and a lot sexier but I do a lot of work with state legislatures and you would be amazed at how much can and does get done at that level.

well not you, you’re smart. One would be
 
atkar83 said:
Isn't a 50/50 senate still bad for the Dems as it gives so much power to Sinema and Manchin? I guess its not technically worse, if they get to 50/50.

What was the expectation going into these elections? How many seats were the GOP expected to take from the house & senate?
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Yes technically. But, Dem control of Senate will at least allow more judges to be appointed to courts, get more Biden appointments for federal agencies through.
 
atkar83 said:
Isn't a 50/50 senate still bad for the Dems as it gives so much power to Sinema and Manchin? I guess its not technically worse, if they get to 50/50.

What was the expectation going into these elections? How many seats were the GOP expected to take from the house & senate?
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30 to 60 - House
2 - 5 - Senate

Historic day for Dems.
 
So...what happens to the old guy? Will you folk from the shoot-first-ask-questions-later-land have a new president?
 
atkar83 said:
Isn't a 50/50 senate still bad for the Dems as it gives so much power to Sinema and Manchin? I guess its not technically worse, if they get to 50/50.

What was the expectation going into these elections? How many seats were the GOP expected to take from the house & senate?
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I mean 51 would be really nice sure. But given the history of midterms going terribly for the incumbent president and what was expected of this week, it has gone way better than was thought
 
atkar83 said:
Isn't a 50/50 senate still bad for the Dems as it gives so much power to Sinema and Manchin? I guess its not technically worse, if they get to 50/50.

What was the expectation going into these elections? How many seats were the GOP expected to take from the house & senate?
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It’s all contextual on the fact that America’s stupid system allows the voters to basically hobble the incumbent government after 2 years for not getting anything done quick enough in the name of democracy, and almost always do so… For the Dems to have essentially come out about the same as before is historically v.good and only usually happens during wars or national crisis when everyone’s extra mental and jingoistic.
 
NV comes down to the number of mail ballots in Clark remaining, supposedly Clark will have a presser in a few minutes to (hopefully) clarify this number.
 
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