2022 US Elections
- Thread starter calodo2003
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Would be nice, although the only non-partisan poll I'm tracking on the race is Lee +5.
Warnock really needs to be far more aggressive on Walker. What is the point of campaigning for something if you're not ready to drop the gloves off? Playing John Fetterman's playbook of aggressive campaigning is the way.
Agreed.
Both Abrams and Warnock are oddly underperforming in the polls this cycle. A candidate of Herschel’s idiocy shouldn’t be anywhere near a sitting US Senator in the polls, but here we are. The gap should be comparable to that of Fetterman and Oz in PA.
It seems as though both are running a campaign that lets the opponent be the opponent & they are expecting the voters to see the difference between the two.
Oz doesn't have that Heisman winning, good guy, one of us charm Herschel presents in Georgia. True Herschel is a mental deficient that has no business being anywhere near the Governorship barring a photo op with the actual governor but it's identity politics and popularity these days. Not sure what more Warnock could do - too many were already voting for the UGA star/Texas resident.
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220912&instance_id=71706&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN®i_id=116096025&segment_id=106056&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/1cc6748a-42ab-55b6-9bf6-1fbd85722697&user_id=d08441f7926aa9084f340661e2880e29
Good morning. Are Democrats again about to be disappointed by overly optimistic polling?
May be behind a paywall in some regions. Here's a graphic within the article.
Good morning. Are Democrats again about to be disappointed by overly optimistic polling?
May be behind a paywall in some regions. Here's a graphic within the article.
There's no reason to think the polling error will go the same way, even if it's as big as 2020.
Here in NC it seems that every other TV/YouTube add is an attack on Beasley, so the narrative of the GOP not having money seems odd. I think she’ll lose, same with Demmings in FL. Ohio should be Ryan’s as Vance is an abomination, but MAGA’s gonna MAGA. Feel pretty good about the rest, although GA worries me a bit.https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220912&instance_id=71706&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN®i_id=116096025&segment_id=106056&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/1cc6748a-42ab-55b6-9bf6-1fbd85722697&user_id=d08441f7926aa9084f340661e2880e29
Good morning. Are Democrats again about to be disappointed by overly optimistic polling?
May be behind a paywall in some regions. Here's a graphic within the article.
Could go into a few threads…
If this is true this is their Hail Mary for the midterms. The only treason to do this is to. Drive their base to the polls in November. The Dems would be smart to let it proceed to a vote in the Senate to get GOP incumbents on the record. This seems stupid by the MAGAites, right?
Isn't some sort of late-term restriction reasonably popular?
They're apparently going to try to pass off 15 weeks as the cut off for 'late term.' That won't fly with the majority of voters.
What @calodo2003 said. The wording of that tweet is purposeful and misleading which means it could only come from a POLITICO reporter.
I think she's using the language the Repubs will use as they are trying to shift the goal posts massively to try to regain the moral high ground / regain some disaffected voters by declaring all abortion after 15 weeks as 'late term.' Today could be one of those bellwether days in the abortion saga this election cycle if the Repubs come out & move on this Insanity.
Do you have any numbers to back that up?
None firm as of yet, more of an educated guess. I'm basing it off of the newest state law with latest time for an abortion (Florida with 15 weeks). I just couldn't see them going any less nor could I see them try to use what Roe allowed.
I would hazard a guess that the majority shifts, but a slim margin, to being a no to all abortions in the second trimester, but that ignores two things:
1. The framing of 15 weeks as late term is absurd.
2. We have seen how the MAGAites write their laws, so there is an almost certainty that this law will make even needed 16 week abortions (fetus is dead/dying or mothers health is in jeopardy).
I do wonder if it is worth a gamble for Schumer to add add an amendment to the bill guaranteeing 100% free pre and post natal care for ALL mothers and children. Call their bluff on it being all about "the poor babies".
Edit: Some numbers
I wonder if Republicans will point to Europe when they call 15 weeks late term. In Norway, abortion is freely available until after week 12. Of course, after that it's not illegal, it just has to be approved by a panel of doctors. Many other European countries have similar limits, but I doubt the nuances will feature in right-wing media.
In a normal country with a normal political discourse this would be something that could be negotiated and debated. Unfortunately, abortion has become a zero sum game for a large majority of this country. It's either always evil or it should have no restrictions. I understand the pro-choice side of this argument as the anti-choice has no nuance to their argument. You can't negotiate with someone who "fervently believes" that life begins at conception. If someone says they believe this but is still willing to negotiate on things like rape and incest they are telling you who they are; liars who only want to control others.
I think a bill that:
1. Capped reason free abortion at 16 weeks.
2. Gave wide latitude for a woman and her doctor to proceed after 16 weeks.
3. Provided 100% free pre and post natal care.
Would gather a majority of support from the population if presented in the absence of the vitriol and extremism that seems to be our current norm. So yeah, not going to happen. Instead we are going to have to fight these stupid and dangerous ideological battles with a party who pretends to care about life while doing everything possible to make living as difficult as possible.
They are all insane. This is America, not Sparta.
FFS, I worked in a sub-unified command under this clown. He didn't come off as some MAGA nutter in 2015.
Charlie Kirk now saying Lindsay Grahams abortion bill is election interference 
I just hope this lead will hold 'til the very end. Fingers crossed.