Looks like WI and MI are pretty much in the bag, GA and PA still in balance. Looking good.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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it's been 78% in favour of Biden so far so it's actually very likely he will make up the ground.
There are enough potential votes, based on what's been seen. May not be enough, but no reason to rule it out at the moment.
I agree. Trump got PA in the bag. The Steel industry might be a big factor as to why that is.
Oh twitter is glorious is right now.
1.4 million. So he needs more than 1 million of them. Tough but doable considering it's all mail-in.
Expect a few more twists and turns here. This wont be plain sailing.
He absolutely does not have PA in the bag
Hope you are right. If Biden takes PA then its difficult to see a route to 270 for Trump.
The outstanding votes are primarily in counties that historically vote Democrat by a large margin.
They are also the most populous counties in the state.
Is this actually likely and based on facts, or is it a dream scenario? Hoping for the first of course, but after the polls misery I don't trust anything at this point.
Basically a tie but with loads of absentee votes to be counted in Democratic areas. So expect to see Biden extend a lead over the 4th.
Steve Kornacki just on MSNBC saying more results from Fulton County could be in.
It will be much needed.
Some generally very sensible posters lost their collective shit on here in the small hours of last night, just because exactly what they had been told was going to happen, happened.
I'd be surprised if base models don't cover that. You'd need to incorporate far more information for every single voter if you're posing this as a classification task with each voter's information being the input. For instance, you team up with someone like Cambridge Analytica and add in their social media interactions from Facebook, you team with ad companies who will give you sites they've browsed. If ethics are not a bar, you can get places they've visited over the last six months, youtube videos they've watched, articles they've spent most time reading, time at which they paid taxes, amount they spend on guns, interests and voting patterns of their friends and relatives, their likes and retweets on Twitter and Instagram, keywords from their recent posts, heartrate from their tracking devices, sentiment analysis of their recent texts to check their emotions, engagement with political ads, and so on and so forth. Even if you had all this information about every single voter, your models will not be accurate enough because you can't capture all of the dynamic variables. People who can build these models are a dime a dozen like me, but this data is what will be expensive, noisy and inadequate.
It is quite possible that Sanders would have won popular vote, and in big states like California, more Dems would have voted him. But in the end, that does not matter.
So far, Maine is the only senate race that has gone wrong. N Carolina (despite Dems leading in polls for senate) was hard to be won if Trump won the state (which he was predicted to won based on polls). Thing is, people seem to vote a straight ticket nowadays.
Maine is a bit absurd, no clue what happened there. Collins was supposed to be very unpopular, and Trump attacked her on Twitter just a few days ago. Yet it seems that she walked it.
The 1.4m votes left to count are heavy democrat counties with mail votes (which also lean toward democrat votes). I would not rule PA out for Biden at all.
In an ideal world, I'd want people with genuine left-wing beliefs to run the Democratic Party. What I'm not convinced is there's a massive amount of potential voter left, well, anywhere. A turnout approaching 70% is generally about the limit of what you usually see in any country that doesn't have mandatory elections. There's always around 30% of any electorate that can't be bothered to vote. What Biden achieved is, in my opinion, close to the limit.
Now, where I'm setting the bar low is the motivation of voting for him. Because yeah, I don't think a lot of people are genuinely enthusiastic about Biden, they're just happy he's not Trump and that's not a high bar. Eventually, there should be more than that. You can't define yourself simply on the basis of not being like someone else. But for this particular election, this result in my opinion was about as good as anyone was going to get, regardless of genuine enthusiasm or just deep-set loathing of Trump.
Disagree. He's more popular there than some realise he is. Him standing up for US steel won him a lot of voters there.
How long until PA votes are counted? Could Trump be getting Agueroooo'd by Biden deep into injury time in a few days? The meltdown would be glorious.
They are mail votes though, he needs something like 72-74% of them to win the state. So far, he has been winning 78% of mail votes.
So, it is still doable, probably a coin toss at the moment.
Be amazing if he does it don't get me wrong. I just think it will be red.
I'm not even saying Biden will definitely win. Trump could still win it but we don't know that yet.
But Trump absolutely doesn't have PA in the bag, he simply doesn't .
I hope you don't feel like that for long. The bolded part is EXACTLY how the real bad people leverage both sides against each other against their own best interests.
Donald is that you? (Gotta count 'em, man)
It'll be a shame to see the end of the Trump Presidency thread, hoping it'll turn to his criminal trial though.
How so? Don't think in 10 years of using that horrible platform I'd ever describe it as glorious!
If Biden takes PA, then he almost certainly takes MI too. And well, he actually doesn’t need MI in that scenario.
PA is game over. MI is game over (faithless elector aside).
Biden may not even need PA or Georgia if he gets the others.
It's a hefty lead. Much bigger than the other swing states. Postal votes will no doubt close the gap but I'm not imagining by enough. I think it will go red.
Likely Biden bags Michigan and Wisconsin. PA is in the balance, a heavy number (1.4m) yet to be counted, can Biden catch up from 600k behind? It's possible! A lot of these will be heavily democrat favoured.
If Biden keeps Maine, Arizona, Nevada how it is + wins Michigan and Wisconsin, he won't need PA anyway if I'm not mistaken. He gets the magic 270 votes in that scenario regardless. Biden has good pathways to win. Trump has a pathway too but with the votes left to count leaning more toward Democrats, it's v likely Biden 2020 I think.
Worth noting also that we won't get 100% of the PA and NZ votes until Friday I think. But we should get a clear picture before then.
Whatever way it goes, the one thing proven by this election is America is fecked.... such a clearly divided nation.
I think that he actually may have won Arizona, with the hispanic vote and Michigan or Wisconsin
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