It's funny. He was talking about neural nets. As a fellow data scientist with a masters in machine learning (and I'm sure more qualified PhD folks like @Revan will agree) - no matter how good your model is, it's limited by the data you feed it. And there's just too many variables when it comes to stocks and elections, and you will always have a considerable margin for error because your feature set cannot simply include all the chaos of real life. With a carefully curated data set, an intuitively selected and constructed ensemble and a skillful tweaking of loss functions and hyperparameters, you can outperform other models, - but you can't become fecking Nostradamus.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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It's funny. He was talking about neural nets. As a fellow data scientist with a masters in machine learning (and I'm sure more qualified PhD folks like @Revan will agree) - no matter how good your model is, it's limited by the data you feed it. And there's just too many variables when it comes to stocks and elections, and you will always have a considerable margin for error because your feature set cannot simply include all the chaos of real life. With a carefully curated data set, an intuitively selected and constructed ensemble and a skillful tweaking of loss functions and hyperparameters, you can outperform other models, - but you can't become fecking Nostradamus.
I actually think uncertainty because of Covid has also benefited Trump as much as it hurt him. We know there is an economic impact and voters would feel more comfortable coming out of this with a conservative government (ignoring how well Biden and Obama did post 08).
To be fair, Biden can easily win by 80 electoral votes if he wins PA and GE. Or lose, if he loses Michigan (in which case he will lose PA and possibly Georgia). He needs N Carolina in order to go close to 100, but that doesn’t seem to happen.
Rest of the votes are dems most likely
this is what I don’t get at all, keep hearing people saying that. 20,000 does not sound close at all to me.
Maybe there is no new big idea for Dems in USA?
Detroit + other urban areas still not counted hundreds of thousands of absentee votes.
Mail vote has won Wisconsin for biden. Mail vote is likey to win Michigan and Pennsylvania for biden
because they are fecking idiots
Counting his losses presumably
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Its possible. Mail in from Philly, Pittsburg, those highly democratic suburbs
So he did not really do anything did he ? Whether it's voters from the left or the right, both were out in force because of Trump. Biden had nothing to do with it.
Listen, I have been up for 30 hours, survived the Green Bay ink incident, led a rally against despair and procured a phone charger. I will not be denied my irrational hope!
I would actually be surprised if anyone is using neural nets for poll predictions. Statistical methods and maybe some basic ML (like random forests) seem much more suited for this task IMO (actually more likely it is just statistical models). And yes, obviously every learning/statistical model is only as good as the data you feed to it.
He had no clue what he was talking about.
Yes
Same margin Trump won by in 2016.
Over 2.5 million mail-in votes to be counted and I remember reading at least 1.5 mil are expected to be registered dems. far from over
Anyone has a live stream of cnn or any other news channel I can follow please?
Eh, I know people who would have voted against Trump if his opponent was a pillar of salt. Animus against Trump drove the vote out, not being inspired by Biden (if you're inspired by Biden then I have some drugs to introduce you to)
At this point it's not even irrational! It's fecking happening! And this European has been up all night already...
"Suddenly"
Do they know how mail works.Also where was this rhetoric when Biden lead Florida and Trump slowly took over? Why not cry of 'where did these votes come from?' then.
If he wins the absentees anywhere from 74-26 and above then he’s Gucci. Currently 78-21z
It's freely available on CNN.com.
At current projections biden should get over 70% of the remaining PA vote, this could be well over 800k votes for biden.
The 2.5m is the whole total, of which 1.4m is still to be counted.
The next few months will be fun with a butthurt Trump pushing executive order after executive order not giving two fecks.
I've got to be honest if he had predicted a narrow win there would have been a lot less stress for a lot of us (and yes, I know I have to go away and properly understand polling before the next election so I don't go gray prematurely...)
Right now The Donald is sending a message to Ivanka “Last chance to bang a President.”
Thanks
Was getting very depressed when went to sleep!
So it was worth going to sleep. Hallelujah!
Biben gonna win: Hallelujah!
Which is why I admitted that he inspired them by not being Trump. The main point is that it's hard to see anyone else doing any better. This election was always going to be about Trump: half of the US embraced him, the other, slightly larger half (I'm not good at maths) rejected him.
Can't believe how close it all is....given all the predictions in last two weeks I expected Biden to win by 55-45% margin.
Is it too simplistic to say Trump would've won this comfortably but for Covid crisis?
Is it too simplistic to say Trump would've won this comfortably but for Covid crisis?
He won't have to with the Senate remaining red. Turtle flaps and co will give him a clear run at whatever nonsense he wants to legislate.
Ah, fair then.
A decent news to wake up to...I was super depressed and having a melt down before going to bed. Biden, come on man..
Would all the center/center right voters would have voted for Sanders or Warren? I really doubt that any of them would have got Arizona for example, and who knows how Midwest would have gone.
Saying that, I think that a you get centrist would have done better. Like O’Rourke or Buttigieg if they did not suck.
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