2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Solius said:
Seems pretty pointless voting in a president if there’s another system that won’t let him actually do anything.
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For two years perhaps. There's hope the senate could flip in 2022, and Turtle flaps loses his obstructionist powers. Until then we can just hope Biden restores US' standing and cooperation with its allies, especially during a crucial time such as now. I mean a President publicly backing his health/scientific experts and telling people to wear masks and socially distance is a big feckin victory in itself.
 
SinNombre said:
Yeah it is close to the 299-239 prediction I made, which as per the 538 followers on here was "bullshit".

:)


Oh well, we can all be glad that the Orange man is not going to win.
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I've enjoyed your posts all day/night but not really sure why you're so combative towards 538 and Silver.
 
MrMarcello said:
Looks like Nevada could be the tipping point, especially if Trump wins PA. Biden is up about 7600 votes, any forecast on the remaining?
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Biden should be a lock for Nevada. Remaining ballots are mail in, in the most democratic areas around and including Vegas.
 
Trying to not get my hopes up here. Trying hard.....but it's difficult.
 
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A few hours ago, annoying booking loving posters were warring with mods and kept bleating on about bookies stating a certain Trump win.

Proves bookies know as little as pollsters!
 
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Nou_Camp99 said:
Please let Biden win. I do fear for America in the short term though if he does win it. Can't see the trumpees taking it well.
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All bluster. Biden should pepper this into his celebration speech about that demographic...



They'll spout conspiracy theories and scream fraud online. That'll be the extent of it.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
@oates further update there's a rather attractive blonde lassie on CNN and they've now gone over to another rather attractive blonde lassie in PA. Will keep you posted if anything else is raised.
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CNN MO seems to be suits in front of the TV maps, blondes on the road outside counting centres.
 
I think Maine and Collins probably show how much people still vote straight ticket and simply check "incumbent" without paying attention. The whole education attempt about knowing what/who you are voting for clearly hasn't worked very well - which is a bit scary when you consider so many more people now are sitting at home with the ability to pay attention.
 
sammsky1 said:
A few hours ago, annoying posters we're warring with mods and kept bleating on about bookies stating a certain Trump win.

Proves bookies know as little as pollsters!
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They are not completely bs as they do have complex algorithms being worked on by the brightest minds and all that, but their business is to make money, not provide people with accurate analysis and predictions. The way some people treated these bookmakers as if they had insider info was hilarious.
 
prateik said:
Lead slightly widening in MI? Think its gone up a little
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straggling votes from little counties. The big surge for Biden will come when the next round if reporting comes in from Detroit and the surrounding areas, where hundreds of thousands of votes are still being counted.
 
sammsky1 said:
A few hours ago, annoying posters we're warring with mods and kept bleating on about bookies stating a certain Trump win.

Proves bookies know as little as pollsters!
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This post proves you know nothing about betting markets.

People are referring to the exchange, not a standard bookmaker. Huge difference.

Anyway wont pollute the thread...
 
MrMarcello said:
If Biden takes Arizona, Michigian, Nevada, and Wisconsin he wins with 270. Am I reading the map right?
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Yup, exactly 270. With the margins in nv, mi, and wi and possibly in ga, nc, something is going to go to the courts :nervous:
 
So we're expecting an MI push and hopeful win with the Mail in ballots.

But does anyone know about Gary Peters in the senate.. This will help him close the gap too right? He's about 70k down.

Could he hold his seat in MI??
 
sammsky1 said:
CNN MO seems to be suits in front of the TV maps, blondes on the road outside counting centres.
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I'd rather have Susanna Reid in the studio presenting instead of Mr Generic Face Man #4 but it'll have to do.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
@oates further update there's a rather attractive blonde lassie on CNN and they've now gone over to another rather attractive blonde lassie in PA. Will keep you posted if anything else is raised.
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I'll take the color commentary on this:

"Thanks Sparrow, the first young reporter you mentioned is Pamela Brown. Now Pamela did a fantastic job last night collecting and disseminating information. A real dynamo at the news desk. The second player you highlighted is Kate Baldwin. She is a versatile reporter who will pop up all over CNN to fill in for lead hosts. Really great talent on this CNN team. Back to you Raven "
 
mu4c_20le said:
They are not completely bs as they do have complex algorithms being worked on by the brightest minds and all that, but their business is to make money, not provide people with accurate analysis and predictions. The way some people treated these bookmakers as if they had insider info was hilarious.
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This. Absolutely ridiculous.
 
Still haven't slept. Been watching for 15 straight hours now.
 
Most of us seem to be cheering on Biden. Are there many Trump fans on here?
 
Gandalf Greyhame said:
I'd be surprised if base models don't cover that. You'd need to incorporate far more information for every single voter if you're posing this as a classification task with each voter's information being the input. For instance, you team up with someone like Cambridge Analytica and add in their social media interactions from Facebook, you team with ad companies who will give you sites they've browsed. If ethics are not a bar, you can get places they've visited over the last six months, youtube videos they've watched, articles they've spent most time reading, time at which they paid taxes, amount they spend on guns, interests and voting patterns of their friends and relatives, their likes and retweets on Twitter and Instagram, keywords from their recent posts, heartrate from their tracking devices, sentiment analysis of their recent texts to check their emotions, engagement with political ads, and so on and so forth. Even if you had all this information about every single voter, your models will not be accurate enough because you can't capture all of the dynamic variables. People who can build these models are a dime a dozen like me, but this data is what will be expensive, noisy and inadequate.
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David Goldstein showed the data he could find and how he could get more of the "desired" voters to vote in 2018 wasn't it? Simply by customized targeting ads the week before the election in a state. So, I get the potential amount of data available, the uncertainty at a individualistic level that leads to uncertainty at a larger level --> Uncertainty in the models due to data with a large degree of potential variation(?).

But I was refering more to the "live" model with the odds starting in favor of Biden, then Trumph clear favourite and then back again. What caused the shifts in the odds? If we had stopped the "simulation" when Trumph was the biggest betting favourite, then surely given enough time, one could have seen that certain areas with predominantly Biden voters had still not sent in their results which again should have impacted the model more. I'm not knowledgable in building software based prediction models, but from a risk analysis pov, the drastic shifts in odds does not seem to reflect the changes in the live results from the election. It is not like the results was equivalent to Trump scoring a goal and Biden lost Harris to an injury.
 
Raoul said:
I got a full night's sleep. Feeling very refreshed, especially with the way things look to be trending for Biden at the moment.
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Haven't slept all night but surprisingly feel calm and peaceful at the moment. Things do seem to be falling into place, fingers crossed for GA!
 
What’s the breakdown of remaining GA votes? Mail or could they count those straight away?
 
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