2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Has there been any update on ME-2?
 
Some of those analysts on CNN sound close to calling it for Biden. As long as the Nevada mail-in votes aren't a huge anomaly I think so too. But I'm still nervous for some reason...
 
WI_Red said:
Listen, I have been up for 30 hours, survived the Green Bay ink incident, led a rally against despair and procured a phone charger. I will not be denied my irrational hope!
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I’m with you man! Here in Chicago been sticking to this all night. Just downed another Red Bull. Hanging on until I feel comfortable enough to go to sleep.
 
FootballHQ said:
Can't believe how close it all is....given all the predictions in last two weeks I expected Biden to win by 55-45% margin.

Is it too simplistic to say Trump would've won this comfortably but for Covid crisis?
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Trump would have defeated any Democrat if not for Covid. An incumbent president with a strong economy will always win in the US.
 
Revan said:
Would all the center/center right voters would have voted for Sanders or Warren? I really doubt that any of them would have got Arizona for example, and who knows how Midwest would have gone.

Saying that, I think that a you get centrist would have done better. Like O’Rourke or Buttigieg if they did not suck.
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Genuinely believe Bernie would have won but with a completely different demographic and vote pattern than biden
 
Gandalf Greyhame said:
It's funny. He was talking about neural nets. As a fellow data scientist with a masters in machine learning (and I'm sure more qualified PhD folks like @Revan will agree) - no matter how good your model is, it's limited by the data you feed it. And there's just too many variables when it comes to stocks and elections, and you will always have a considerable margin for error because your feature set cannot simply include all the chaos of real life. With a carefully curated data set, an intuitively selected and constructed ensemble and a skillful tweaking of loss functions and hyperparameters, you can outperform other models, - but you can't become fecking Nostradamus.
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With the $500m + in bets on this election, I would have assumed that it would have been worth it to create a more comprehensive model that would take into account the precincts(urban/rural) that still had not sent in their results and the % of absentee votes not registered, assuming this data was available, which is dependent on man power. Not easy, but if the weighing of the variables are correct, it is just a matter of data/lack of data --> data gathering.
 
Welcome to the US of A a where elections are decided by how TV Networks call states.
 
Let's give it a rest for the day with the Sanders, Warren etc. stuff?

The orange one is losing to sleepy grandpa. It's 2 pm on a wednesday and i'm dancing to
 
Breaking: Marco Silva has been appointed President.

No idea how it happened, but then no one knows how the cnut blagged his last two jobs either.
 
Gandalf Greyhame said:
Politico still shows a 12k lead for Trump in MI, it's not gone down as other outlets are suggesting.
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simonhch said:
I’m with you man! Here in Chicago been sticking to this all night. Just downed another Red Bull. Hanging on until I feel comfortable enough to go to sleep.
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Took today off, but I just finished about a half gallon of coffee so I think I’m gonna save the vacation day and “work”
 
Revan said:
Would all the center/center right voters would have voted for Sanders or Warren? I really doubt that any of them would have got Arizona for example, and who knows how Midwest would have gone.

Saying that, I think that a you get centrist would have done better. Like O’Rourke or Buttigieg if they did not suck.
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Sanders would probably scare off a large number of independents and disillusioned ex-Trump voters. Warren might have been a more safe bet. But yes you're right, the US is very much like the UK in the sense that a leftist ticket would likely not be every electable.

Biden's issue wasn't his ideological barometer, but his failure to inspire as a candidate. Buttigieg would probably scare off a few 'Christians' but O'Rourke looks a promising bet for the future.
 
WI_Red said:
Listen, I have been up for 30 hours, survived the Green Bay ink incident, led a rally against despair and procured a phone charger. I will not be denied my irrational hope!
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Inkgate will forever be remembered, I hope the guy got reimbursed too for his what seemed a lifetime trip to Walmart.
 
Revan said:
Would all the center/center right voters would have voted for Sanders or Warren? I really doubt that any of them would have got Arizona for example, and who knows how Midwest would have gone.

Saying that, I think that a you get centrist would have done better. Like O’Rourke or Buttigieg if they did not suck.
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I think we're setting the bar low here. Remember John Delaney? Or Howard Schultz? They would have won the popular vote by a good amount. I think that was the metric @Siorac was using to dictate enthusiasm, and I can argue that a more left candidate would have picked up a disillusioned voter for every center right voter that was lost to Trump.

That said, the need to align to a more centrist lane is dictated by the EC, and the way the senate races are going, it looks like that approach isn't getting the complete validation it set out to get. I will give 100% credit to Biden for doing what Hillary did not: stump across the Midwest, and engage the left wing of the party.
 
I have no idea what’s going on but a Trump meltdown would be funny. Bit like Bluemoon goes into meltdown but multiplied by about 100.
 
GoranIvanisevic said:
Genuinely believe Bernie would have won but with a completely different demographic and vote pattern than biden
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I do not see any path that would have lead to a Bernie win. Most likely would have been a Trump landslide. I mean, we saw Florida going 4+ for Trump, simply cause he claimed that Biden is a communist and in the debates was confusing him for Bernie.

As someone said above, it does not matter what millennials in New York or California think. To win the presidency, you need to win some of the boring states in Midwest (or Arizona) and Sanders had no chance on doing so, while probably also losing New Hampshire and Nevada, while making Colorado and Minnesota competitive.

The US is a very right leaning country. It is why they have a centrist and a far right party as their biggest parties.
 
I turn it off last night because I had to get up early for work but at the time Biden was getting slammed in Michigan did he catch up??
 
Pscholes18 said:
I turn it off last night because I had to get up early for work but at the time Biden was getting slammed in Michigan did he catch up??
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It's not over till it's over but he went from ~300k down to ~20k down with 15% of the vote still to be counted.
 
I cant see Biden making up enough ground to win PA. There are what, 1.5m votes outstanding? And Trump has a 600k lead. Thats too much, for me.
 
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