2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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InfiniteBoredom said:
Obama nostalgia. Doesn’t replace actually being an effective campaigner though, which he sucks at.
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This is what I think. Compared to the two Republican Presidents he's been sandwiched between Obama comes out as positively excellent on a surface level and something to return to if you're not that politically-minded but despise Trump. While there's obviously a much stronger left-wing sentiment the Dems will ideally try to capitalise on in 2020, it's an extremely recurrent trend to see a lot of people lamenting the fact Obama isn't President anymore whenever his name is mentioned. Biden's probably the closest to him in that regard.
 
Raoul said:
I think he would be the favorite if he runs. There are a good number of independents who would go for him.
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Probably depends on how he handles Trump, and whether he tries to focus on policy or gets drawn into prolonged verbal spats.

An issue with him is that he'll have plenty to pick on in his past, and that's an area Trump excels in despite his own appalling misconduct. No doubt he'll misconstrue plenty of Biden's previous statements/policies, and no doubt he'll aim to highlight any of Biden's more problematic actions. By contrast he'd struggle to do that to the same extent with a younger candidate.
 
The guy is a dinosaur. Some of the stuff in that Anita Hill hearing still boggles my mind. In this climate, even Independents will be put off. Seriously, is that the best Dems can do? If you are nominating an old guy, at least go with a guy with an exciting platform.
 
Cheesy said:
Probably depends on how he handles Trump, and whether he tries to focus on policy or gets drawn into prolonged verbal spats.

An issue with him is that he'll have plenty to pick on in his past, and that's an area Trump excels in despite his own appalling misconduct. No doubt he'll misconstrue plenty of Biden's previous statements/policies, and no doubt he'll aim to highlight any of Biden's more problematic actions. By contrast he'd struggle to do that to the same extent with a younger candidate.
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‘Joe Biden voted for the Iraq War. He belongs to the swamp of Washington politicians who got us into this mess. WEAK!’

And there you have it, and more. Trump and his minions would probably steer clear of Anita Hill, but any Democrat running ballsy enough, or desperate enough, won’t let that slide.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
‘Joe Biden voted for the Iraq War. He belongs to the swamp of Washington politicians who got us into this mess. WEAK!’

And there you have it, and more. Trump and his minions would probably steer clear of Anita Hill, but any Democrat running ballsy enough, or desperate enough, won’t let that slide.
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I'm not so sure they would.
 
Cheesy said:
I'm not so sure they would.
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That’s why I added ‘and his minions’. Orange Overlord most likely doesn’t have the self awareness to restrain himself, but his staff won’t fancy digging up Thomas’s and Kavanaugh’s dirty laundries, and Trump’s, by extension.
 
Raoul said:
I think he would be the favorite if he runs. There are a good number of independents who would go for him.
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Which independents? That group is not homogeneous.
A lot of independents are progressives, disillusioned people, libertarian types and eccentrics. He doesn't appeal to any of those groups.

Which exact group of independents do you think he attracts really? The very rare 50% Republican 50% Democrat type?
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
That’s why I added ‘and his minions’. Orange Overlord most likely doesn’t have the self awareness to restrain himself, but his staff won’t fancy digging up Thomas’s and Kavanaugh’s dirty laundries, and Trump’s, by extension.
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I don't know. Teflon Trump has no qualms about grabbing pussies but his opponents are always held to a high moral standard. Moreover, Anita Hill issue might be a big issue for Dems but not for Republicans. I'm sure they will bring it up and independents and Dems will be put off and Republicans will just vote for whoever is on the ticket.
 
fishfingers15 said:
I don't know. Teflon Trump has no qualms about grabbing pussies but his opponents are always held to a high moral standard. Moreover, Anita Hill issue might be a big issue for Dems but not for Republicans. I'm sure they will bring it up and independents and Dems will be put off and Republicans will just vote for whoever is on the ticket.
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Most people alive don’t know about Anita Hill, and how is he actually going to frame it? Joe Biden was a misogynist? There’s no angle that make Trump bringing up Anita Hill look good. He’d wait for a Democrat to test that for him, and jump on it if it sticks, like the Sanders’s ‘judgment’ line on Clinton; or use it as a retort if/when Biden goes after his Stormy Daniels stuff.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Most people alive don’t know about Anita Hill, and how is he actually going to frame it? Joe Biden was a misogynist? There’s no angle that make Trump bringing up Anita Hill look good. He’d wait for a Democrat to test that for him, and jump on it if it sticks, like the Sanders’s ‘judgment’ line on Clinton; or use it as a retort if/when Biden goes after his Stormy Daniels stuff.
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That's fair. Although I think candidates like Gillenbrand (Thanks Eboue) would definitely bring up the Anita Hill controversy and it will stick, definitely in this climate. Trump and his pols would be sure to use it because they know Dems care about that sort of stuff.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Which independents? That group is not homogeneous.
A lot of independents are progressives, disillusioned people, libertarian types and eccentrics. He doesn't appeal to any of those groups.

Which exact group of independents do you think he attracts really? The very rare 50% Republican 50% Democrat type?
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Regular people who view him as a sort of normal candidate. Many people aren't issues voters (as in "does candidate A have better policy positions than candidate B ?") but are interested in a President that makes them feel good, in a similar way that Obama did when he ran. There are likely more than enough people who are suspicious of Sanders and democratic socialist friends to give Biden the nomination.
 
Raoul said:
Regular people who view him as a sort of normal candidate. Many people aren't issues voters (as in "does candidate A have better policy positions than candidate B ?") but are interested in a President that makes them feel good, in a similar way that Obama did when he ran. There are likely more than enough people who are suspicious of Sanders and democratic socialist friends to give Biden the nomination.
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Primaries are contested with high intensity voters. The sort of independents you describe aren’t likely to get registered and go vote on a weekday for a state caucus/primary.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Primaries are contested with high intensity voters. The sort of independents you describe aren’t likely to get registered and go vote on a weekday for a state caucus/primary.
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Independents would only be a percentage. The bulk of his votes would come from regular run of the mill Dems who prefer him to Sanders or think he has a better shot at beating Trump.
 
Raoul said:
Independents would only be a percentage. The bulk of his votes would come from regular run of the mill Dems who prefer him to Sanders or think he has a better shot at beating Trump.
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Turning out those people requires money, organisation, state parties links, campaigning, none of the which he has an edge over other candidates.

Biden is not Clinton, this is a free for all, not one where the frontrunner actually has visible and hidden logistical advantages to capitalise on. Electability is a decent argument, but it isn’t going to substitute actual persuasion and enthusiasm.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Turning out those people requires money, organisation, state parties links, campaigning, none of the which he has an edge over other candidates.

Biden is not Clinton, this is a free for all, not one where the frontrunner actually has visible and hidden logistical advantages to capitalise on. Electability is a decent argument, but it isn’t going to substitute actual persuasion and enthusiasm.
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Biden would be the last Dem who would run into any fundraising issues since he is the party's leading establishment contender. He would obviously be PAC funded like most other non-progressive types.
 
Raoul said:
Biden would be the last Dem who would run into any fundraising issues since he is the party's leading establishment contender. He would obviously be PAC funded like most other non-progressive types.
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Elizabeth Warren is the most prominent fundraiser for Democratic politicians in the race. When it comes time to pull string with the state reps, state party chairs or some congressmen from competitive districts, old Joe would soon realize he’s not Obama or the Clintons.

He won’t be short on money, but he won’t be able to outspent his competitors. Comparative advantage/absolute advantage.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Elizabeth Warren is the most prominent fundraiser for Democratic politicians in the race. When it comes time to pull string with the state reps, state party chairs or some congressmen from competitive districts, old Joe would soon realize he’s not Obama or the Clintons.

He won’t be short on money, but he won’t be able to outspent his competitors. Comparative advantage/absolute advantage.
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Except that Liz (who is more in the progressive camp) doesn't have Biden's likeability, electability, or ability to beat Trump. Only Biden or Sanders will get taken seriously in this regard.
 
Raoul said:
Except that Liz (who is more in the progressive camp) doesn't have Biden's likeability, electability, or ability to beat Trump. Only Biden or Sanders will get taken seriously in this regard.
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I didn’t say she’d win. I used her to illustrate the point that despite having great poll numbers a year before Iowa, Biden in actuality doesn’t have any edge in logistics to maintain and translate that poll numbers into votes.

Joe Biden won’t be the Democratic nominee.
 
I think Warren is just starting her race and it's nowhere close to what it could potentially be once she starts visiting states and engaging unions etc. Her credentials with the middle and working class families will shine a lot more once people start getting to know her and her policies better.
 
Raoul said:
Regular people who view him as a sort of normal candidate. Many people aren't issues voters (as in "does candidate A have better policy positions than candidate B ?") but are interested in a President that makes them feel good, in a similar way that Obama did when he ran. There are likely more than enough people who are suspicious of Sanders and democratic socialist friends to give Biden the nomination.
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But Biden is no Obama and doesn't have the reputation as a good campaigner or public speaker. If any of the establishment candidates Booker, Harris, Gillibrand, Brown gets some momentum I can see them overtaking Biden for the establishment votes. A lot of the voters you are talking about are still hoping Michelle Obama decides to run.
 
Cheesy said:
This is what I think. Compared to the two Republican Presidents he's been sandwiched between Obama comes out as positively excellent on a surface level and something to return to if you're not that politically-minded but despise Trump. While there's obviously a much stronger left-wing sentiment the Dems will ideally try to capitalise on in 2020, it's an extremely recurrent trend to see a lot of people lamenting the fact Obama isn't President anymore whenever his name is mentioned. Biden's probably the closest to him in that regard.
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I hear that a lot more from Europeans or wealthy Hollywood types than working class American citizens where I live.
 
Revan said:
She'll be 30 and not legible for election. Hard to trust polls which don't set even the basics right.
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The "basics" are sample sizes and weights. Many polls with good methodologies include a hot-topic question, and this is an example of that.
This is their press release, where they are noting surprise that she is better known than 2020 contenders
And in her first week as congresswoman, Ocasio-Cortez, whose Twitter following compares more closely to those of presidential aspirants than her fellow new members, appeared on CBS’ “60 Minutes” for the kind of profile typically reserved for veteran politicians.


The latest Morning Consult/Politico survey found Ocasio-Cortez to be better known than a number of the Democratic Party’s possible 2020 presidential contenders, including former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who in 2018 enjoyed his own time in the spotlight as the unsuccessful challenger to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). The Jan. 11-14 poll surveyed 1,984 registered voters and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
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(note that that language means they don't include her as a 2020 contender)
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
I hear that a lot more from Europeans or wealthy Hollywood types than working class American citizens where I live.
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It's undoubtedly a regular sentiment you see online whenever he's brought up. Although it's obviously not universal and will vary across the country. As far as former Presidents go though he's fairly popular for one whose reign only concluded a couple of years ago.
 
Cheesy said:
It's undoubtedly a regular sentiment you see online whenever he's brought up. Although it's obviously not universal and will vary across the country. As far as former Presidents go though he's fairly popular for one whose reign only concluded a couple of years ago.
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Online I can see for sure. But among the regular people I come across that don't follow Twitter or social media (usually say in their 30s rather than 20s), the impression they give is that not all that much has changed for their lives. Policies still favor the elites and big corporations, health care costs are keep rising with quality not improving and people that aren't in the well-off level generally feel they have to "get theirs" and they are justified in being selfish because that is the example set by all the politicians and corporations.
 
Sherrod would be good as VP. He's got good political opinions, just no charisma. Which unfortunately is the main attribute for a winning candidate.
 
Eboue said:
Hes seems fine it's just that no one knows him.
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sometimes those that are too well known are the ones that have targets on their backs.
I'm not supporting him mind.
As always need to know what he stands for and his history.

Castro has no charisma. Also very inexperienced.
Biden...same ol same ol....and just Old. Unlike Bernie he is not driven.

Sherod. I do like. And he does speak passionately.
Perhaps.

After the Trump ship has well and truly sunk, things will get interesting.
 
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