2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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perhaps a little off topic so feel free to send a message rather than derail the thread but its being said that if trump gets his nominee to the courts there will be a challange to rowe vs wade so essentially looking to change abortion rights

but what exactly do republicans want to change it to - or have they not thought that far
illegal under all circumstances?
only to save the life of the mother
ok in cases of abnormal feotus
Rape?
where do they intend to try to redraw the line?

I'm not up on the details but I'd imagine restricting it to the first trimester and the well known exceptions, which is in keeping with polling on the issue iirc.
 
That’s not good. Still, if Biden can hold Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan it should be grand.

Edit: Pretty small sample size though. 613.

At this point, unless the Dems win the Senate and are not chickens for once, things will be very grim.
 
1. It is absolutely crazy that a person's ability to vote is in anyway related to their financial situation.
2. Good on Bloomberg and the other contributors to take action to ensure ex-felons can vote - definitely more helpful than that campaign he ran.
3. I wonder how much of an effect this will have. I'm guessing only a small share of those people will actually end up voting. Would be huge if it could help swing Florida, though.
Bush beat Gore in florida by around 500 votes.
 
I was thinking about this yesterday.

Kentucky has about 2m population that votes.

If I was a Dem billionaire and wanted to make a difference, I would offer a $1000 to every person in Kentucky who is registered republican or unregistered and votes against McConnell and he loses.

For an investment of about 200m or so, you would get rid of the evil leader of the GOP.
 
I'm not up on the details but I'd imagine restricting it to the first trimester and the well known exceptions, which is in keeping with polling on the issue iirc.

No chance that's where the base that goes rabid about "abortion is murder" stops there. If they have a solid 6-3 they will want the line at not even allowing victims of rape to have an abortion - adoption they'll say. I'd guess they'd only allow it in cases where mother's life in danger.
that's where the "pro-life" people I've known would draw the line.
 
No chance that's where the base that goes rabid about "abortion is murder" stops there. If they have a solid 6-3 they will want the line at not even allowing victims of rape to have an abortion - adoption they'll say. I'd guess they'd only allow it in cases where mother's life in danger.
that's where the "pro-life" people I've known would draw the line.

Any person who's pro-life should be 'canny' enough to realise that the exceptions should always be allowed. It's much, much harder to argue the case for further liberalisation when they are.
 
Does anyone have any links to polls conducted anonymously?

I wouldn't trust any that aren't.
 
Any person who's pro-life should be 'canny' enough to realise that the exceptions should always be allowed. It's much, much harder to argue the case for further liberalisation when they are.
Many of those ‘canny’ people cannot divorce their religion from their common sense, unfortunately.
 
What do you mean anonymously? As in a completely random sample? That would get you terrible polls.

That the respondent replies to the poll anonymously.

In other words, that the poll isn't conducted face-to-face or over the phone.
 
Five Things Biden and His Allies Should Be Worried About - New York Times


You should subscribe and read the article, but for those who can't this was interesting:

A Democratic strategist — who requested anonymity because his employer does not want him publicly identified talking about the election — analyzed the implications of the most recent voter registration trends for me.

In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he said, overall
registration is up by 6 points through August compared to the 2016 cycle, but net Democratic registrations are down by 38 percent. That’s about 150,000 fewer additional Democrats than were added in 2016.
In addition, he continued, registration among whites without college degrees
is up by 46 percent while registration by people of color is up by only 4 percent. That gap is made more stark when you realize that over the last four years, the WNC (white non-college) population has increased by only 1 percent in those states, while the number of people of color increased by 13 percent.
The pattern was more pronounced in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than it was in Michigan.

On its own, increased registration among non-college whites would have only a negligible effect on total state voting, my source pointed out, but
it becomes troubling if it reflects greater interest more generally for these voters in those states. And there are good reasons to believe that if that is the case, those additionally energized voters are very underrepresented in surveys now.
Even if white non-college turnout reached the highest expectations, he cautioned, it would not “erase Biden’s current polling leads. But it does make the races much closer.”

While Democrats have struggled for years with non-college whites, another set of problems for Biden and the party has begun to emerge this year in what many liberals had been counting on as a key constituency: the steadily growing Hispanic electorate.

As Ian Haney López, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and Tory Gavito, a human rights lawyer who is president of Way to Win and the founder of the Texas Future Project, wrote on these pages on Sept. 18:
According to recent polls from Quinnipiac and Monmouth, 38 percent of registered Hispanic voters in 10 battleground states may be ambivalent about even voting. At least so far, this large group of Latinos seemingly perceives little reason to choose Mr. Biden over President Trump.
Why? López and Gavito offer an explanation based on 15 focus groups and a national survey:
Progressives commonly categorize Latinos as people of color, no doubt partly because progressive Latinos see the group that way and encourage others to do so as well. Certainly, we both once took that perspective for granted. Yet in our survey, only one in four Hispanics saw the group as people of color.
In fact, the authors continued, the majority of Hispanics
rejected this designation. They preferred to see Hispanics as a group integrating into the American mainstream, one not overly bound by racial constraints but instead able to get ahead through hard work.
Another data point they found “even more sobering”: López and Gavito asked
eligible voters how “convincing” they found a dog-whistle message lifted from Republican talking points. Among other elements, the message condemned “illegal immigration from places overrun with drugs and criminal gangs” and called for “fully funding the police, so our communities are not threatened by people who refuse to follow our laws.”
As they expected, “almost three out of five white respondents judged that message convincing.”
 
Any person who's pro-life should be 'canny' enough to realise that the exceptions should always be allowed. It's much, much harder to argue the case for further liberalisation when they are.
You don't know the pro life group. Onenil is not far wrong but i will say that there is a significant amount of pro life population who believes life is gift of god and won't make an excuse for incest and rape as well. That is not even considering the charming minority who believe if you conceived,them you must have enjoyed it
 
People worrying about Arizona are :wenger:. Cindy McCain just endorsed Biden, AZ should be a wrap (as a native Arizonan, there is no family more respected than the McCain family in the state).

Look, if Biden takes FL and AZ, he will likely only win by 1-2 points max so it makes sense that some polls may have Trump ahead from time to time. Im not worried about a 2016 polling error as they fixed the issues to the point where 2018 was actually quite accurate.
 
That the respondent replies to the poll anonymously.

In other words, that the poll isn't conducted face-to-face or over the phone.

kfagBE1.png


https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ut-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/

Many polls (eg. Yougov) are online.
 
. Trump may test this. According to sources in the Republican Party at the state and national levels, the Trump campaign is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority. With a justification based on claims of rampant fraud, Trump would ask state legislators to set aside the popular vote and exercise their power to choose a slate of electors directly. The longer Trump succeeds in keeping the vote count in doubt, the more pressure legislators will feel to act before the safe-harbor deadline expires.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

@Raoul am I starting to win you over to panic stations yet?
 
Why does it matter? Florida and Arizona I always assumed would be Trump states. It's mid west and south east where it will matter. Our state, North Carolina, will be a total battlefield.

If he's improving in FL, then he's likely going to do better than expected in NC, GA, AZ and a few other states that are currently too close to call.
 
https://www.270towin.com/maps/je99E

That is what I’m putting my faith in.

In other news



Why am I not assured by this cuntweasel?


His caveat will be “Trump was the winner on November 3rd, there has to be a cut off point on counting ballots otherwise it could be argued forever” as they take it to the conservative packed courts and they throw out millions of perfectly good ballots that couldn’t be counted in time.
 
Too close for comfort imo. Even if Biden were to squeak it out like this, Trump would contest the hell out of several states to try and overturn it in the courts. Biden needs get a 50 or more EV win for Trump's post-election feckwittery to fall on deaf ears.

Let’s hope to feck that happens - my scenario is more of a «worst case» where Biden still barely gets by.
 
Trump is still looking like a very tempting bet at slightly better than evens. I really might lay a consolation bet.
 
In Nigeria, we don't even bother about peaceful transitions of power anynore.
The feck is wrong with you America?
 
National polling doesn't seem to be moving much, state polling seems to be getting worse.
What is the value of any polling is during a pandemic (people not going to voting booths, people getting evicted and maybe having problems with their registration, people able to vote by mail but the USPS being sabotaged) since the likely voter samples might be totally off? One option would be to look therefore at registered voter polls,which look great for Biden, but OTOH the sampling issue could go totally the other way.

@DavidDeSchmikes your post about Biden clocking out at 9AM is frightening. I wonder whether the party even wants to win. There's a pandemic, a collapsed economy, massive social unrest. Might be easier to win big in the next midterms since Trump remains unpopular.

@Suedesi lots of people poured over registration and early voting data in 2016 and convinced themselves that Hillary was sweeping NC and FL but it didn't happen, I think it's not a very good metric.
 
National polling doesn't seem to be moving much, state polling seems to be getting worse.
What is the value of any polling is during a pandemic (people not going to voting booths, people getting evicted and maybe having problems with their registration, people able to vote by mail but the USPS being sabotaged) since the likely voter samples might be totally off? One option would be to look therefore at registered voter polls,which look great for Biden, but OTOH the sampling issue could go totally the other way.

@DavidDeSchmikes your post about Biden clocking out at 9AM is frightening. I wonder whether the party even wants to win. There's a pandemic, a collapsed economy, massive social unrest. Might be easier to win big in the next midterms since Trump remains unpopular.

@Suedesi lots of people poured over registration and early voting data in 2016 and convinced themselves that Hillary was sweeping NC and FL but it didn't happen, I think it's not a very good metric.
Apparently, it is debate prep



Been doing it all month
 
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