2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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Could work thoughWhile Trump is just gonna wing it
I don’t think so. Trump is just going to spout all kinds of shite, which his followers will lap up but normal people will see straight through. I can’t really see the debates move the needle too much, to be honest.
Shit’s already baked in a bit too much for the debates to sway undecideds.
People worrying about Arizona are. Cindy McCain just endorsed Biden, AZ should be a wrap (as a native Arizonan, there is no family more respected than the McCain family in the state).
Look, if Biden takes FL and AZ, he will likely only win by 1-2 points max so it makes sense that some polls may have Trump ahead from time to time. Im not worried about a 2016 polling error as they fixed the issues to the point where 2018 was actually quite accurate.
Interesting.
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There’s a reason Jeff Flake didn’t bother wasting his time attempting to run for re-election. Being an anti-Trump Republican in AZ basically means you’re a RINO with no constituency.
Agree with you - think Cindy McCain's influence in AZ is overrated - GOP is Trump's bitch now.
Na, the problem with yours and Raoul's reasoning is that you think the target demographic for Cindy McCain is the Trumpers in AZ. Nope, the most important constituency in AZ are suburban women in Maricopa county. As someone who grew up in the Maricopa county suburbs, I know from personal experience that these voters retain a lot of respect for the McCain family.
I should also add that I grew up with evangelical, Catholic, and Mormon conservatives from AZ (including those who are so die-hard pro-life that they convinced/shamed people I know into avoiding abortions) and the education difference can't be underestimated: uneducated versions of these voters will support Trump to the end, the educated ones tend to dislike Trump but need some convincing to vote against GOP. There are more than enough voters in the latter group to swing the election to Biden and it is this group that Cindy McCain has influence with. Furthermore, while Sinema votes a fair amount with the GOP, die-hard GOP voters still prefer McSally, yet Sinema won. It is because she convinced educated suburban voters that she wouldn't be too radical and would be palatable to center-right voters.
You have to have lived in AZ for more than a few years to have met enough people to understand the demographics. I have family in the Acela corridor (including progressive Dem activists who volunteer time to campaigns) so I know how clueless people from there are about politics in states like AZ.
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Also, to add to why Jeff Flake could not win an election in AZ anymore, you have to look at the distribution of votes. You basically have a GOP base, a Dem base, and a majority of voters who fall into a centrist mush. A common feature of the centrist mush is that these voters tend to be more educated but also tend to lean center-right due to libertarian influences (emphasis on fiscal conservatism in this case). The centrist mush also includes a lot of transplants from the Midwest, which is why the Midwest has turned increasingly red in recent years. To win a statewide general election in AZ, you need to win your base (GOP, Dem) and a majority of voters in the centrist mush.
Jeff Flake can still get a lot of centrist mush with his scorning of Trump and may even win more of these voters than someone like Sinema; however he loses the GOP base due to Trump's dislike of him, which means the base either won't turn out in a general or will defeat him in a primary. Basically, Flake knew he would lose his primary and so didn't bother to run. However, McSally still lost against Sinema and will lose to Mark Kelly, why is that? It is because it is extremely difficult to keep both the GOP base and the center-right voters in the mush happy. Make one happy, you likely alienate too many voters in the other to win. The gamble McSally has made is to stick extremely close to Trump to turn out the GOP base to the max and hope that center-right voters will dislike the Dems too much to not defect to a significant degree. The reason why she is polling so badly is that Mark Kelly retains popularity in the state due to his wife (Giffords) and also does not alienate libertarian-style center-right voters due to his centrist background and military/astronaut profile. He also retains the Dem base who are primarily motivated to get rid of the Trumpist movement and really want to turn AZ blue.
Those libertarian-style, pro-military center-right voters will also be the type to listen to someone like Cindy McCain. Once this is taken into account, it is clear what the Biden campaign are trying to do in AZ: they are aiming to replicate Mark Kelly's strategy by coupling Biden's long-standing ability to work with others across the aisle with a political figure in the state like Cindy McCain who is popular with the center-right voters. Furthermore, Cindy McCain is far more popular in the state than Jeff Flake for a variety of reasons, but mainly due to the fact that John McCain was more popular and was seen as a maverick who didn't compromise on his views unlike a traditional politician (Flake), so it's funny and seems naive to me if someone says that Cindy's endorsement is equivalent to Flake's endorsement. All in all, it's hard for me to see an election where Mark Kelly wins and Biden loses, maybe not impossible, but hard to see.
Jeff Flake can still get a lot of centrist mush with his scorning of Trump and may even win more of these voters than someone like Sinema; however he loses the GOP base due to Trump's dislike of him, which means the base either won't turn out in a general or will defeat him in a primary. Basically, Flake knew he would lose his primary and so didn't bother to run. However, McSally still lost against Sinema and will lose to Mark Kelly, why is that? It is because it is extremely difficult to keep both the GOP base and the center-right voters in the mush happy. Make one happy, you likely alienate too many voters in the other to win. The gamble McSally has made is to stick extremely close to Trump to turn out the GOP base to the max and hope that center-right voters will dislike the Dems too much to not defect to a significant degree. The reason why she is polling so badly is that Mark Kelly retains popularity in the state due to his wife (Giffords) and also does not alienate libertarian-style center-right voters due to his centrist background and military/astronaut profile. He also retains the Dem base who are primarily motivated to get rid of the Trumpist movement and really want to turn AZ blue.
Those libertarian-style, pro-military center-right voters will also be the type to listen to someone like Cindy McCain. Once this is taken into account, it is clear what the Biden campaign are trying to do in AZ: they are aiming to replicate Mark Kelly's strategy by coupling Biden's long-standing ability to work with others across the aisle with a political figure in the state like Cindy McCain who is popular with the center-right voters. Furthermore, Cindy McCain is far more popular in the state than Jeff Flake for a variety of reasons, but mainly due to the fact that John McCain was more popular and was seen as a maverick who didn't compromise on his views unlike a traditional politician (Flake), so it's funny and seems naive to me if someone says that Cindy's endorsement is equivalent to Flake's endorsement. All in all, it's hard for me to see an election where Mark Kelly wins and Biden loses, maybe not impossible, but hard to see.
Spot on. I recently spent a couple of years in AZ and did a bit of canvassing during the mid terms and the McCains just didn't hold much sway among anyone (even during John McCain's final months). The likelihood that anyone, whether moderate Republicans or centrist Dems, are going to suddenly have a political epiphany about Biden 6 weeks out because a wealthy window of a dead Republican in Sedona endorses him, are slim to none.
LOW ENERGY President!
It's not about a political epiphany, it's about positive reinforcement. Motivates more people that were already leaning towards voting Biden to punch that ticket. Not sure what type of canvassing you did but it doesn't add up for me, no offense.
who cares? debates are largely useless and turning a blind eye to the protests does nothing but hurt Biden’s chances even more.While Trump is just gonna wing it
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Indeed, McCain himself was at negative 7 net approval when he died (after getting a small surge from Dems), so he must have terrible numbers with Arizona Republicans.
https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/12/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators/
This poll just tipped Ohio ever so slightly blue in 538's model, although still really a toss-up. Also very good PA... surprised their total model didn't move a bit more on this, still 77% Biden chances, same as earlier.
Trump's internal polling must also be showing weakness in OH since he just went there for two rallies the other day. Ordinarily these types of trips would be saved for places like PA, FL, NC etc.
I think Biden will win the rust belt and lose FL, AZ.
The issue is that Trump will likely be the leader after the first night, and he won't accept the legitimacy of the remaining ballots.
jc, at least pretend to fight, youre not leftist, at least be partisan
Agree with the last bit. Polling in places like FL, AZ, GA, NC, IA is too close to definitively call. In either case, if Biden happens to win OH, not winning FL will not matter since picking up OH would mean he won every rust belt state, thereby choking off all plausible Trump paths to 270.
Ladies and gentlemen. The opposition party.
Is it the first debate next week?
Though I'm not sure how much of a debate it will be as I expect a whole new level of crazy from Trump
Though I'm not sure how much of a debate it will be as I expect a whole new level of crazy from Trump
Her and Schumer are house cats playing with hyenas. Who would you have right now as leader of the Democrats in both parties? I would love to ask Berbatrick too but I think he has me on ignore.
AOC is a bit young at the moment. But for me it as to be a fighter. Like the look of Katie Porter.
Bingo, she is pretty amazing. He's not everyone's cup of tea and his run in this cycles primary was I'll advised but I think Eric Swalwell has the balls to ask the right questions. I think the Dems have a few people that we would all get behind if the 80 year olds would just fecking retire. The likes of Diane Finestein and old Chuck Grassley have no business being where they are today. This country needs a modern perspective from both parties yet we have Biden/Pelosi/Schumer who will very likely let Trump away with everything and on the other side the are howling about the commies.
Agree with Eric Swallwell, would be a good replacement for Schumer.
I think the real issue is that the democratic leadership have all lived through a different time in DC politics, and try to bring that experience to bear on the twitter generation. There was a time when a politician lying on the floor and getting caught would be the end of them. Trump can watch a video of himself contradicting himself and say it never happened, and have no political consequences. He can f*ck a porn star while his wife is pregnant with no repercussions from the Christians. He can sell out his country for a tower in Moscow with no repercussions from his base.
That kind of shift is seismic, and the old skool don't know how to deal with it. To be fair neither do I. I thought Schiff did as well as he could in the impeachment trials.
It's a real problem. It's trying to win a match of football when the opposition keeps picking the up the ball and throwing it in, and the referee signals for a goal.
That kind of shift is seismic, and the old skool don't know how to deal with it. To be fair neither do I. I thought Schiff did as well as he could in the impeachment trials.
It's a real problem. It's trying to win a match of football when the opposition keeps picking the up the ball and throwing it in, and the referee signals for a goal.
A large portion of this country just loves watching pigeons win at chess & apparently relates to them.
Can’t see this ending well...
That's what's so frustrating. It's not hyperbole to say some on the right got angrier because Obama put his feet up on the desk than they did on trump's recent comments about destroying ballots if he says there is fraud. Look at the foaming at the mouth over Beau Biden while trump's handbag design thief of a daughter and shitty property developer son in law are taking in the cash. Their net worth has exploded over the last 4 years. I would also tell them that Kushner's sister was in China 3 years ago offering visas for investing (bailing out) the Kushner family but but but Clinton is the usual response. They don't even have the knowledge to talk about whitewater, instead they think the Clinton's are serial killers whose last victim was Seth Rich.
I'd say the dems need some dumb but ruthless people in their side but more often than not they prefer to eat their own.
Coke? Pot? Mixture?
Good call.
@sport2793 Agree with your AZ take for the most part. One thing I’m not sure you considered is his authoritarianism stance lately could move Latinos in maricopa county away from him slightly. Especially as AZ Latinos are wayyyy less Cuban than say Florida.
I do think flake could mount a good gubernatorial run should he want to, but he’s done in this current gop climate on a national level.
I do think flake could mount a good gubernatorial run should he want to, but he’s done in this current gop climate on a national level.
Wouldn’t surprise me if Biden dropped NH and didn’t gain PA. That said, I believe AZ to be a shoe in, and Georgia to be competitive. NC and even SC are tight too. If trump picks up florida, he has a good chance of stealing the election (legally)
Well I think Latinos in AZ already dislike Trump to a fair amount as they tend to be from Mexico and Central America rather than Cuba (like you allude to). My only skepticism over the national view on AZ Latinos is the extent to which they will affect the election. While Latinos make up a significant portion of the population (may even be the majority in the near future), most of them are either undocumented or not citizens, unless this has changed drastically in the 3-4 years since I left. It's really their children that Dems are relying on to swing elections in the future and I'm unconvinced that 1) there are enough of these second-generation Latinos in general and that 2) there are enough of them that are motivated to vote. 1) is likelier than 2) based on the people I know at least but maybe there is data proving this to be otherwise that hopefully proves me wrong. This may change by 2024 or even 2028 but for now, the Dems best bet in AZ is still attracting educated suburban white voters.
The other thing about AZ that I want to say is that it is unrealistic to expect Biden to win AZ by 5 points, it's just not supported by reality. I do believe AZ will vote for Biden but it is going to be a 1-2 point victory in all honesty and that's ok! People (even forecasters like Nate Silver) who worry about the recent polls "tightening" or being "mediocre" in AZ fail to remember that Trump won the state by 3.5% points in 2016. A 2 point victory would still be a 5.5 percentage point shift to the left. If anything, I'm less inclined to believe the earlier polls which had Biden up by >5 points in AZ (although there were more undecideds earlier on to be fair). However, I do feel that Biden's edge in AZ is real when you see poll after poll having him ahead. That's never been the case for a Dem presidential nominee in AZ in the last several decades. The demographic data supports the polling numbers. Plus, Sinema did win statewide in a midterm election, which shows that the votes are there to make it happen.
While I think similar logic applies to FL (likely to be a 1-2 point victory at best), I can't speak more to that state as I've never lived there *shrugs shoulders*. So bottom line, stop freaking out about polls tightening in these center-right states, it won't make you look smart.
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