2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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We're heading to a contested election, aren't we?

Conservativres love to vote at the ballot box, liberals are more likely to vote by mail (given COVID).

I predict on election night Trump will be ahead, but as mail-in ballots are counted over the next several days (weeks?), the pendulum will swing towards Biden. Both men will claim victory, we will deal with Florida 2000 type sitch on several states, and possibly it will go to the SC for final arbitration.

Shitshow incoming...
 
Suedesi said:
We're heading to a contested election, aren't we?

Conservativres love to vote at the ballot box, liberals are more likely to vote by mail (given COVID).

I predict on election night Trump will be ahead, but as mail-in ballots are counted over the next several days (weeks?), the pendulum will swing towards Biden. Both men will claim victory, we will deal with Florida 2000 type sitch on several states, and possibly it will go to the SC for final arbitration.

Shitshow incoming...
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This is on the presumption that all those who voted from trump at the last election will vote for him again.

I think a lot of swing voters will go Biden where as before they went trump because he wasn’t Hillary
 
Suedesi said:
We're heading to a contested election, aren't we?

Conservativres love to vote at the ballot box, liberals are more likely to vote by mail (given COVID).

I predict on election night Trump will be ahead, but as mail-in ballots are counted over the next several days (weeks?), the pendulum will swing towards Biden. Both men will claim victory, we will deal with Florida 2000 type sitch on several states, and possibly it will go to the SC for final arbitration.

Shitshow incoming...
Click to expand...

A fairly likely scenario unless Biden wins on election night or all the key swing states somehow work something out that allows them to count all mail in ballots by election night
 
Raoul said:
A fairly likely scenario unless Biden wins on election night or all the key swing states somehow work something out that allows them to count all mail in ballots by election night
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If Biden does win on Election night, he will end up with a super majority like never seen before. I just can’t see it happening.
 
Pexbo said:
If Biden does win on Election night, he will end up with a super majority like never seen before. I just can’t see it happening.
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Agreed. If he wins it will be because all the previous tipping point states all vote for him (GA, FL, AZ, etc).
 
Raoul said:
He was always going to lose in either case since Hickenlooper is ahead by some distance.
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Gotta get that seat on some boards and maybe a bit of lobbyist cash too. Keep the relationship with the RNC sweet and they take care of you.
 
Raoul said:
Not polled apparently were Susan Collins and Joni Ernst, both apparently losing as well.
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Out of curiosity, if the election would play out as all these polls are quoting right now, what would be the resulting balance in the Senate?
 
Cheimoon said:
Out of curiosity, if the election would play out as all these polls are quoting right now, what would be the resulting balance in the Senate?
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There are too many close ones to call - Ossoff in GA, Ernst in IA, and Bullock in MT, Lindsey Graham's seat in SC are all basically toss ups. The Dems need to win 4 if Biden wins the Presidency to regain the Senate (factoring in Doug Jones losing in AL). Of the four they need - AZ, CO, ME, and NC seem to be the most likely.
 
Cheimoon said:
Out of curiosity, if the election would play out as all these polls are quoting right now, what would be the resulting balance in the Senate?
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52-48, the other 3 seats on top of this that may be possible are SC, GA special, and MT. I think it will end up at 52 but you never know.
 
Raoul said:
There are too many close ones to call - Ossoff in GA, Ernst in IA, and Bullock in MT, Lindsey Graham's seat in SC are all basically toss ups. The Dems need to win 4 if Biden wins the Presidency to regain the Senate (factoring in Doug Jones losing in AL). Of the four they need - AZ, CO, ME, and NC seem to be the most likely.
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sport2793 said:
52-48, the other 3 seats on top of this that may be possible are SC, GA special, and MT. I think it will end up at 52 but you never know.
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OK, thanks! So fairly positive for the Dems for now, but still two months to go...
 
How much time will it take for the election results to be declared? A week?
 
Suv666 said:
How much time will it take for the election results to be declared? A week?
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Depends on what happens on election night itself, and how long each state takes to count their mail in votes. Frankly, I don't understand why they wouldn't count them early as they come in.
 
Raoul said:
Depends on what happens on election night itself, and how long each state takes to count their mail in votes. Frankly, I don't understand why they wouldn't count them early as they come in.
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for the same reason all the matches in the last game of the season are played at the same time. All matches (and votes) have to be under the same conditions. Not because "oh! I was going to vote, but seeing that the Dems (or Rep) are ahead on the mail vote by 30%, I will not go" and other escenarios. And yes, could be kept secret, but leaking would be more than plausible
 
4bars said:
for the same reason all the matches in the last game of the season are played at the same time. All matches (and votes) have to be under the same conditions. Not because "oh! I was going to vote, but seeing that the Dems (or Rep) are ahead on the mail vote by 30%, I will not go" and other escenarios. And yes, could be kept secret, but leaking would be more than plausible
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They don't have to reveal the results, just count them and then add them to the ones done on November 3rd.
 
Raoul said:
They don't have to reveal the results, just count them and then add them to the ones done on November 3rd.
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As I said in the last sentence of the quoted post, leaking would be more than easy
 
Revan said:
Cindy McCain endorses Biden. Can this actually mean anything in Arizona?
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Not much. Arizona Republican politics is basically in the Trumper camp, so anything a McCain says will be worth as much as being endorsed by Jeff Flake. Biden's only redeeming value is that he's a centrist, otherwise Arizona wouldn't be remotely in play.
 
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Millions raised to allow Florida felons to pay debts and vote

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg, singer John Legend and basketball star LeBron James are among donors who have raised $20 million to pay the debts of thousands of Florida felons so they can vote — a move that could affect the outcome of November’s US presidential election.

The Florida Rights Restoration Commission (FRRC) said Tuesday it had raised the money to pay off the debts of ex-convicts in the state who had finished their prison sentences.

The organization’s work was in response to a new law in the southern state blocking the voting rights of felons who had completed their prison sentences but still had outstanding fines or court fees.

The measure could block some 750,000 people — who are disproportionately black and Hispanic — from voting, an especially important figure given the critical role closely contested Florida could play in deciding the winner of the election.


Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York who ran for the Democratic presidential nomination before Joe Biden secured his spot earlier this year, was one of the effort’s biggest contributors.

“The right to vote is fundamental to our democracy and no American should be denied that right,” he said in a statement.

“We are determined to end disenfranchisement and the discrimination that has always driven it.”

More than 44,000 people throughout the country participated in the fundraising, including Michael Jordan, Cuban-American singer Camila Cabello, director Stephen Spielberg and his wife Kate Capshaw.

Organizations such as Warner Music, Levi Strauss, MTV, Comedy Central, VH1, the Miami Dolphins, Orlando Magic and Miami Heat also donated.

“The democracy that we envision is not one where an American is forced to choose between putting food on the table or voting,” said FRRC executive director Desmond Meade.

“With this effort, we are creating a more inclusive democracy that we all can be proud of.”

The law in question was signed last year by governor Ron DeSantis, an ally of Republican President Donald Trump, in an effort to restrict the voting access of what the FRRC calls “returning citizens”.

It was finally put in place this month after a circuit court of appeals in Atlanta — including judge Barbara Lagoa, one of Trump’s potential candidates to fill the Supreme Court vacancy left by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg — voted to uphold it.

Some 1.4 million formerly incarcerated people in Florida had originally re-gained their right to vote without conditions in a 2018 referendum.
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Drifter said:
Millions raised to allow Florida felons to pay debts and vote
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1. It is absolutely crazy that a person's ability to vote is in anyway related to their financial situation.
2. Good on Bloomberg and the other contributors to take action to ensure ex-felons can vote - definitely more helpful than that campaign he ran.
3. I wonder how much of an effect this will have. I'm guessing only a small share of those people will actually end up voting. Would be huge if it could help swing Florida, though.
 
perhaps a little off topic so feel free to send a message rather than derail the thread but its being said that if trump gets his nominee to the courts there will be a challange to rowe vs wade so essentially looking to change abortion rights

but what exactly do republicans want to change it to - or have they not thought that far
illegal under all circumstances?
only to save the life of the mother
ok in cases of abnormal feotus
Rape?
where do they intend to try to redraw the line?
 
sun_tzu said:
perhaps a little off topic so feel free to send a message rather than derail the thread but its being said that if trump gets his nominee to the courts there will be a challange to rowe vs wade so essentially looking to change abortion rights

but what exactly do republicans want to change it to - or have they not thought that far
illegal under all circumstances?
only to save the life of the mother
ok in cases of abnormal feotus
Rape?
where do they intend to try to redraw the line?
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I have no idea, but I would assume that the biggest nutjobs would want it to be completely illegal - maybe exception in cases where the mother is in medical danger?

Edit:

This might shed some light:

https://www.npr.org/2019/05/22/7256...ush-gop-to-rethink-rape-and-incest-exceptions
 
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sun_tzu said:
perhaps a little off topic so feel free to send a message rather than derail the thread but its being said that if trump gets his nominee to the courts there will be a challange to rowe vs wade so essentially looking to change abortion rights

but what exactly do republicans want to change it to - or have they not thought that far
illegal under all circumstances?
only to save the life of the mother
ok in cases of abnormal feotus
Rape?
where do they intend to try to redraw the line?
Click to expand...
A lot of them don't think that rape is a real crime so that has also to be taken in to consideration.
 
sun_tzu said:
perhaps a little off topic so feel free to send a message rather than derail the thread but its being said that if trump gets his nominee to the courts there will be a challange to rowe vs wade so essentially looking to change abortion rights

but what exactly do republicans want to change it to - or have they not thought that far
illegal under all circumstances?
only to save the life of the mother
ok in cases of abnormal feotus
Rape?
where do they intend to try to redraw the line?
Click to expand...

It's going to depend on the state. By striking down Rowe v Wade they will leave states to decide for themselves. Some states might feasibly outlaw it completely, while others will probably allow it in cases of rape/incest.
 
nimic said:
It's going to depend on the state. By striking down Rowe v Wade they will leave states to decide for themselves. Some states might feasibly outlaw it completely, while others will probably allow it in cases of rape/incest.
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It would be legal for a woman to go a state where it's legal, right?

Although poorer women or teenagers would probably find it difficult without any support.
 
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