2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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sport2793 said:
Well I think Latinos in AZ already dislike Trump to a fair amount as they tend to be from Mexico and Central America rather than Cuba (like you allude to). My only skepticism over the national view on AZ Latinos is the extent to which they will affect the election. While Latinos make up a significant portion of the population (may even be the majority in the near future), most of them are either undocumented or not citizens, unless this has changed drastically in the 3-4 years since I left. It's really their children that Dems are relying on to swing elections in the future and I'm unconvinced that 1) there are enough of these second-generation Latinos in general and that 2) there are enough of them that are motivated to vote. 1) is likelier than 2) based on the people I know at least but maybe there is data proving this to be otherwise that hopefully proves me wrong. This may change by 2024 or even 2028 but for now, the Dems best bet in AZ is still attracting educated suburban white voters.

The other thing about AZ that I want to say is that it is unrealistic to expect Biden to win AZ by 5 points, it's just not supported by reality. I do believe AZ will vote for Biden but it is going to be a 1-2 point victory in all honesty and that's ok! People (even forecasters like Nate Silver) who worry about the recent polls "tightening" or being "mediocre" in AZ fail to remember that Trump won the state by 3.5% points in 2016. A 2 point victory would still be a 5.5 percentage point shift to the left. If anything, I'm less inclined to believe the earlier polls which had Biden up by >5 points in AZ (although there were more undecideds earlier on to be fair). However, I do feel that Biden's edge in AZ is real when you see poll after poll having him ahead. That's never been the case for a Dem presidential nominee in AZ in the last several decades. The demographic data supports the polling numbers. Plus, Sinema did win statewide in a midterm election, which shows that the votes are there to make it happen.

While I think similar logic applies to FL (likely to be a 1-2 point victory at best), I can't speak more to that state as I've never lived there *shrugs shoulders*. So bottom line, stop freaking out about polls tightening in these center-right states, it won't make you look smart.
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fl will be no less tight than North Carolina and only a 1-2 points away from Georgia in my model. AZ I believe will be a couple of points bluer. You can kinda extrapolate vote share from the registered voters in the recorders office, the census data, and population data. We know there are 2.4m registered voters, and pop of around 4.5m and around 25% aren’t of voting age. wont bore you with details, but many will vote. Theres a few other reasons we can estimate AZ to be a little bluer than Florida (females, McCain’s, etc but it’s probably within the margins of errors).

i like Nate and think his forecasts are solid. I think where he diverges is when he tries “punditry” and has to kinda hedge. He’s an analyst not a pundit; the two don’t really mix well imo
 
owlo said:
fl will be no less tight than North Carolina and only a 1-2 points away from Georgia in my model. AZ I believe will be a couple of points bluer. You can kinda extrapolate vote share from the registered voters in the recorders office, the census data, and population data. We know there are 2.4m registered voters, and pop of around 4.5m and around 25% aren’t of voting age. wont bore you with details, but many will vote. Theres a few other reasons we can estimate AZ to be a little bluer than Florida (females, McCain’s, etc but it’s probably within the margins of errors).

i like Nate and think his forecasts are solid. I think where he diverges is when he tries “punditry” and has to kinda hedge. He’s an analyst not a pundit; the two don’t really mix well imo
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Good to know! I am interested in more details if you have any and if convenient to share, kind of a nerd about numbers :lol:.
 
Redplane said:
Yawn - another "Soros is the world's puppet master" wacko. What are they gonna do when he dies? Who are they gonna blame then?
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Wait until they figure out Soros is a palindrome. The conspiracies will be endless.
 
Got about 5 fliers for Trump and 3 for Tom Thillis in the mail.
1 for Biden, none for the Dem senate guy.
This city went ~70% for Hillary.
 
Beachryan said:
I think the real issue is that the democratic leadership have all lived through a different time in DC politics, and try to bring that experience to bear on the twitter generation. There was a time when a politician lying on the floor and getting caught would be the end of them. Trump can watch a video of himself contradicting himself and say it never happened, and have no political consequences. He can f*ck a porn star while his wife is pregnant with no repercussions from the Christians. He can sell out his country for a tower in Moscow with no repercussions from his base.

That kind of shift is seismic, and the old skool don't know how to deal with it. To be fair neither do I. I thought Schiff did as well as he could in the impeachment trials.

It's a real problem. It's trying to win a match of football when the opposition keeps picking the up the ball and throwing it in, and the referee signals for a goal.
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I think the problem with this kind of thinking is that it doesn't look at voter motivation. The Evangelicals don't care about Trump, they care about what he enables. If Trump manages to push this new SC nominee through, then he can be a pedophile for all the Evangelicals care: Trump will go away eventually, the SC judge will set for decades. And the people who should care about Trump contradicting himself just like his trolling. I think this focus on personality isn't going anywhere. I mean, if the Dems are presenting themselves as the party that will get the buffoon out of office, that's not a very strong argument. I think they would be in a much better position if they offered policy alternatives to Trump - packaged in punchy slogans. They need their own of MAGA!!! and LAW & ORDER!!! - in my view.
Redplane said:
Yawn - another "Soros is the world's puppet master" wacko. What are they gonna do when he dies? Who are they gonna blame then?
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They've already got Bill Gates lined up. They just need to find a way that he can be called a Jew or under the control of Jews, and they're good to go.
 
nimic said:
It depends on the state, but it will also depend on what the courts say after the election.
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Well, yeah, but better safe than sorry I'd think, cause you can't predict what will happen after election day. Anyway, if it's that different per state, then never mind the question. :) At least postal issues have been a fairly big issue, so hopefully that's making people mail their ballots early.
 
I've got a ballot.

Sent to me by accident, after my American housemate moved out and didn't change her address quickly enough.

I've still got various documents lying around with her signature on them, so wouldn't be hard to forge...
 
These endless reports of Biden continuing to eat away at Trump's support, are beginning to remind me of the time Zeno was tweeting updates on Achilles' gains against the tortoise.
 
DOTA said:
I've got a ballot.

Sent to me by accident, after my American housemate moved out and didn't change her address quickly enough.

I've still got various documents lying around with her signature on them, so wouldn't be hard to forge...
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PROOF!!!

You could make millions selling your story to Fox :)
 
duffer said:


Do these celebrity endorsements do anything other than antagonise the snubbed party?
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If it is making people pick one over the other, they are really stupid..

But if it encourages even a few more people to go out and vote, its probably worth it.
 
prateik said:
If it is making people pick one over the other, they are really stupid..

But if it encourages even a few more people to go out and vote, its probably worth it.
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That's the thing though. I would imagine less people will think "oh, the Rock likes Biden, I'll vote for Biden" than will think "that celebrity can't tell me what to do, I'll vote for Trump".
 
nimic said:
Anyone who thinks that was already voting for Trump, guaranteed.
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You're probably right. I can't imagine anyone influenced by the voting habits of a celeb.

That said, if Donald Trump replies to the Rock's Tweet with "IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO YOU ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR...", he should get another 4 years there and then.
 
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