2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Term limits is one of those things that everyone wants but Congress will just never deliver on.
 
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So based on poll averages so far, I've got this as a "worst-case-scenario" path to 270 for Biden mainly predicated on winning Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan back
 
Wolverine said:
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So based on poll averages so far, I've got this as a "worst-case-scenario" path to 270 for Biden mainly predicated on winning Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan back
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Swap colors between PA and WI, and I think you have the most probable map. Or perhaps you could leave WI blue.
 
Wolverine said:
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So based on poll averages so far, I've got this as a "worst-case-scenario" path to 270 for Biden mainly predicated on winning Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan back
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Probably spot on in terms of worst case Biden scenarios where he still wins.

This one contains an "if the election were held today" scenario, which shows how difficult its going to be for Trump to win again

https://www.ourprogress.org/forecast
 
Organic Potatoes said:
Swap colors between PA and WI, and I think you have the most probable map. Or perhaps you could leave WI blue.
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I'm still optimistic Biden can hold on in WI. Its a traditional Dem state that has drifted GOP of late but could really go either way if the Dems run a non-progressive for President.
 
Raoul said:
I'm still optimistic Biden can hold on in WI. Its a traditional Dem state that has drifted GOP of late but could really go either way if the Dems run a non-progressive for President.
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Thats probably more insightful than my reasoning for it which is the Biden has a +3.4 average in the realclearpolitics "spread" column for Wisconsin versus a measly +3.3 for Pennsylvania
#analysis
 
Kentonio said:
Or Tom Cotton steps up like he plans to anyway. Or (dear god) Don Jr. Its not like it’s that hard to find a loudmouthed lying racist if you really need one.
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Don Jr is certainly running for president at some point in the not too distant future, though hopefully he just becomes one of those amusingly shocking (or shockingly amusing) features of the Republican Primary debates. Like Trump was, until he to our horror wasn't anymore.
 
nimic said:
Don Jr is certainly running for president at some point in the not too distant future, though hopefully he just becomes one of those amusingly shocking (or shockingly amusing) features of the Republican Primary debates. Like Trump was, until he to our horror wasn't anymore.
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It would be a massive fail if he attempts it. He doesn't have his Dad's skills in salesmanship and deception. Jr...is little more than a no talent ass clown whose life seems to revolve around gaining his Dad's approval, when his Dad only seems to like the daughter.
 
If Biden loses Pennsylvania, there's no point in even looking at polls or maps. Trump will have won.

The only way I can see that happening is if Covid-19 leads to huge shortages in polling stations in cities (that's a clear GOP strategy). If you at Milwaukee for the recent election they went from something like 50 stations to 5. And that would only really impact cities.
 
Beachryan said:
If Biden loses Pennsylvania, there's no point in even looking at polls or maps. Trump will have won.

The only way I can see that happening is if Covid-19 leads to huge shortages in polling stations in cities (that's a clear GOP strategy). If you at Milwaukee for the recent election they went from something like 50 stations to 5. And that would only really impact cities.
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I can’t see him losing PA. He was born and grew up there and represented a state that bordered PA’s biggest media market (Philly) for over three decades.
 
Will the lack of prominence (and presumably votes) of any third party candidates make a difference especially in the marginals?

I remember Jill Stein and Gary Johnson in 2016 but couldn't tell you anything about this years'.
 
Will be interesting to see whether Jones' endorsement can help progressive candidate Charles Booker beat Amy McGrath.

 
Raoul said:
I can’t see him losing PA. He was born and grew up there and represented a state that bordered PA’s biggest media market (Philly) for over three decades.
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Yeah exactly that.
 
berbatrick said:
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This is an article on the protests by Michelle Alexander, who wrote the New Jim Crow about mass incarceration. The article is quite good
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Most of the article belongs in the other thread. The reason I'm putting it here is becuse of these 2 paragraphs -

No matter what you think about Bernie Sanders as a man or as a candidate — and I wish he was much better at addressing racial issues like reparations — we all owe him and countless organizers a debt of gratitude for pushing universal health care, paid family leave, free college education, a $15 minimum wage and many other economic rights into the mainstream. As Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor has explained, the coronavirus crisis proved that Mr. Sanders was right all along — that health care and other economic rights should be considered part of our social contract, not special benefits for those who are lucky enough to be employed by companies that grant discretionary benefits. Nobody would have benefited more from Mr. Sanders’s political revolution than black people, and yet the generational divide among black voters affected his campaign.

Younger black people seem to understand that the neoliberal Democratic politics of the past will not take us where we need to go, and they supported Mr. Sanders by significant margins in polls. We must work to create an economic system that benefits us all, not just the wealthy. If our nation was not so deeply divided along racial lines — and if so many white people were not revolted by the idea of their tax dollars helping poor people of color obtain education, housing and social benefits — we would most likely have a social democracy like Norway or Canada. Achieving economic justice requires we work for racial justice, and vice versa. There is no way around it.

If we fail to take these obvious steps, our democracy will remain in peril even if Mr. Trump is defeated in November.
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This is the 2nd thing by someone at NYT (1st was in my quoted post) in the past 2 days, making the point that his policies may have been a little helpful right now. What makes me so angry is that the way this praise is timed, after he is politically dead. While he was running, their correspondent was quite hostile, and so was 90% of their editorial staff.
 
berbatrick said:
This is an article on the protests by Michelle Alexander, who wrote the New Jim Crow about mass incarceration. The article is quite good
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Most of the article belongs in the other thread. The reason I'm putting it here is becuse of these 2 paragraphs -



This is the 2nd thing by someone at NYT (1st was in my quoted post) in the past 2 days, making the point that his policies may have been a little helpful right now. What makes me so angry is that the way this praise is timed, after he is politically dead. While he was running, their correspondent was quite hostile, and so was 90% of their editorial staff.
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It's right out of the NYT playbook. Peddle the BS upfront then print the truth later in case anyone calls them out. Bernie deserves alot of blame himself though, ultimately it seemed he cared more about being liked by the Democratic establishment than delivering for the people he was advocating for.
 
I don’t know if it matters one whit, but it looks like the RNC Convention assembly will be held in Jacksonville instead of the early favorite Phoenix. Hopefully it is in part because they’re getting nervous about Florida.

Donnie is also planning campaign rallies in AZ, OK, FL, and NC..3 of which are averaging their highest number of C19 cases.

edit: Ah hell. That’s my day ruined.
 
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MackRobinson said:
I agree with #2. A person who doesn't live in the US has limited information about the upcoming election. I don't care how much you think you know about American politics.
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Let’s just assume that‘s true. Do the limited information and the less biased state of mind make non-American opinions sound more rational and reasonable? Is it the distance that keeps the mind objective? What is it?

The unlimited information about the upcoming election doesn‘t seem to be doing American voters any good. Too soon to call but American voters don‘t seem to be very good at this. Maybe caring about opinions outside of your circle could offer an alternate, useful perspective.
 
berbatrick said:
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Just a reminder that these people either believe Trump posts undercover on 4chan/8chan/8kun or whatever hell pit they've moved to now, as "Q" or that "Q" is someone so high up in the admin that he basically talks for Trump as an "anointed" representative.

I have no idea what kind of reaction she'll have once trump admin folks tell her it's all fake.

If you really want to be depressed, read this: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/qanon-nothing-can-stop-what-is-coming/610567/
 
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sun_tzu said:
Don Jnr and Ivanka 2024 and 2028
Ivanka and Eric 2032 and 2036
Eric and Tiffany 2040 and 2044
Tiffany and Baron 2048 and 2052
Baron + one of Don Jnr or Ivankas kids 2056 and 2060
etc

They will be the new kennedys / Bush / clintons
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They don't have the education to build a dynasty. When Don is gone his empire will crumble and the law will eventually catch up with his spawn.
 
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