2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Wolverine said:
Do we expect a lot of changes with regards to the polls in battleground states between now and November? Presumably even with attack ads isn't it the case that most people would have already made up their minds between the two due to familiarity.

Or do attack ads really make that much of a difference?
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I honestly don't see them moving more than 3-5 points in either direction. Trump's support are already spoken for and so is much of Biden's. There are a very small percentage of independents who are still in play for both candidates. Trump needs to regain support from suburban women (who have jumped off the ship a few years ago) and Biden needs to consolidate votes within the Dem party and form some sort of sellable coalition between regular Dems and progressives.
 
I realise it hasn’t happened yet but could you imagine what you would have thought if you were told in either 2004, 2008 or 2012 that it would be the Democrat nominee that Bush would be endorsing in 2020?

I can’t even begin to imagine what scenarios I’d have thought up as an explanation.
 
Pexbo said:
I realise it hasn’t happened yet but could you imagine what you would have thought if you were told in either 2004, 2008 or 2012 that it would be the Democrat nominee that Bush would be endorsing in 2020?

I can’t even begin to imagine what scenarios I’d have thought up as an explanation.
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We could have a once in history type moment where all living Presidents vote for the same guy.
 
Mitt Romney joins the protest. I hope a few more Republicans would do so too.
I can't wait to see what Trump is going to tweet about Romney.
 
Can’t vouch for this poll but 538 has it as a B+...I think Michigan and Pennsylvania are safe, at least for swing states.

 
I find that most of the people in this thread who think Trump will definitely win 1) haven't provided good reasons supported by data and 2) don't live in the US. Frankly, I feel #2 is sufficient to disqualify a person's opinion on the US election. I say this as a person with a lot of family living outside the US and who has spent a lot of time out of country. The reality is that overseas news coverage of the US doesn't encapsulate or inform on how the average American truly thinks on a day to day basis and what the current priorities are. I am also sure that the news coverage has not provided sufficient context to explain just how massive of an impact both Covid-19 and George Floyd's murder have likely had on the election.

Trump may still win but it would require either massive polling error or something insane to happen in the next few months that puts Biden in a bad spot. Then again, even if the latter occurs I guarantee you that Trump will find a way to feck up massively (maybe even numerous ways for that matter) and reverse the effect on Biden in the process.
 
sport2793 said:
I find that most of the people in this thread who think Trump will definitely win 1) haven't provided good reasons supported by data and 2) don't live in the US. Frankly, I feel #2 is sufficient to disqualify a person's opinion on the US election. I say this as a person with a lot of family living outside the US and who has spent a lot of time out of country. The reality is that overseas news coverage of the US doesn't encapsulate or inform on how the average American truly thinks on a day to day basis and what the current priorities are. I am also sure that the news coverage has not provided sufficient context to explain just how massive of an impact both Covid-19 and George Floyd's murder have likely had on the election.

Trump may still win but it would require either massive polling error or something insane to happen in the next few months that puts Biden in a bad spot. Then again, even if the latter occurs I guarantee you that Trump will find a way to feck up massively (maybe even numerous ways for that matter).
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The last sentence will probably be the deciding factor imo
 


a lot of democrats keep saying "vote vote vote" but they've had and have a lot of power in the cities where police are essentially a violent occupying force, why would anyone who wants the police to feck off not vote green or libertarian?
 
Stunning New CNN Poll Shows Biden 14 Points Over Trump

A new CNN/SSRS poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden opening up his biggest lead yet, 14 points over his political rival among registered voters, as well as a huge drop in approval ratings for President Donald Trump.

The poll asked “Suppose that the presidential election was being held today and you had to choose between Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s candidate and Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s candidate. Who would you be more likely to vote for?” 55% opted for Biden while 41% said Trump, the largest spread

As the White House struggles with massive civil unrest over the brutal killings of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd amid a coronavirus pandemic that has cratered the U.S. economy, only 38% of Americans polled approve of the way that Trump is handling the presidency while 57% disapprove.

This is the worst presidential approval rating since January of 2018 and very similar with approval ratings for Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush at this point in their reelection years. Both went on to lose the presidency after one term.

The new poll was covered on CNN New Day Monday morning, co-anchor John Berman spoke with CNN Political Director David Chalian, which you can watch above via CNN.
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Long way to go.
 
Silva said:


a lot of democrats keep saying "vote vote vote" but they've had and have a lot of power in the cities where police are essentially a violent occupying force, why would anyone who wants the police to feck off not vote green or libertarian?
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Likely because another Trump term wouldn't address their concerns, whereas a Biden term would at least get them a seat at the table.
 
sport2793 said:
Frankly, I feel #2 is sufficient to disqualify a person's opinion on the US election.
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Americans often say that. It's probably because you can't conceive of other nationalities caring about your politics and electoral system enough to have an educated opinion. You're extremely wrong btw, there's a lot of Europeans who know more about US politics than half your actual country does.
 
Kentonio said:
Americans often say that. It's probably because you can't conceive of other nationalities caring about your politics and electoral system enough to have an educated opinion. You're extremely wrong btw, there's a lot of Europeans who know more about US politics than half your actual country does.
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Half the US don't vote, so that wouldn't be surprising.
 
Raoul said:
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That's not that surprising. Sanders and Warren are the only progressives in the Senate and groups like Justice Democrats don't have the funding to compete with the special interest groups who fund the candidacies of the more moderate candidates and will have the entire Democratic Party machine working for them even in the primary. AOC was outspent 18 to 1 when she won her primary in 2018 so it just shows the odds progressive candidates have to overcome.
There is increased talk of a third party but I'm not holding my breath.
 
freeurmind said:
That's not that surprising. Sanders and Warren are the only progressives in the Senate and groups like Justice Democrats don't have the funding to compete with the special interest groups who fund the candidacies of the more moderate candidates and will have the entire Democratic Party machine working for them even in the primary. AOC was outspent 18 to 1 when she won her primary in 2018 so it just shows the odds progressive candidates have to overcome.
There is increased talk of a third party but I'm not holding my breath.
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I think its a cycle or two too early for progressives. The political conditions of the present still favor centrists on the Dem side and Trump cultists on the GOP side. If the Republican President was "normal" (lets say like a George HW Bush type) then it would be much easier for left leaning progressives to gain traction. With Trump in office, the risk tolerance to run a progressive just isn't there for most Dems this cycle. It will however change in the future, since a lot of the underlying issues that made Sanders become "a thing" in American politics, aren't going away anytime soon.
 
sport2793 said:
I find that most of the people in this thread who think Trump will definitely win 1) haven't provided good reasons supported by data and 2) don't live in the US. Frankly, I feel #2 is sufficient to disqualify a person's opinion on the US election. I say this as a person with a lot of family living outside the US and who has spent a lot of time out of country. The reality is that overseas news coverage of the US doesn't encapsulate or inform on how the average American truly thinks on a day to day basis and what the current priorities are. I am also sure that the news coverage has not provided sufficient context to explain just how massive of an impact both Covid-19 and George Floyd's murder have likely had on the election.

Trump may still win but it would require either massive polling error or something insane to happen in the next few months that puts Biden in a bad spot. Then again, even if the latter occurs I guarantee you that Trump will find a way to feck up massively (maybe even numerous ways for that matter) and reverse the effect on Biden in the process.
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Americans living abroad get to vote as well and also US media coverage is readily available on the internet these days.
 
Kentonio said:
They should just do it, and let the Democratic party relax back into the centre-right bunch of neo-cons they've always been at heart.
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It would flop just as all the other third parties have. Or else the Dems would do something to subsume the movement into the Dem umbrella.
 
Raoul said:
It would flop just as all the other third parties have. Or else the Dems would do something to subsume the movement into the Dem umbrella.
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Probably, but if its ever going to work now would probably be a pretty good time. Lots of moderate Republicans feeling homeless, so you could maybe fit 3 parties into the range of ideologies pretty neatly.
 
Kentonio said:
They should just do it, and let the Democratic party relax back into the centre-right bunch of neo-cons they've always been at heart.
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The problem from a strategic point of view is that you might end up having to go against centrist coalitions. That and the left are just terrible at politics.
 
Raoul said:
I think its a cycle or two too early for progressives. The political conditions of the present still favor centrists on the Dem side and Trump cultists on the GOP side. If the Republican President was "normal" (lets say like a George HW Bush type) then it would be much easier for left leaning progressives to gain traction. With Trump in office, the risk tolerance to run a progressive just isn't there for most Dems this cycle. It will however change in the future, since a lot of the underlying issues that made Sanders become "a thing" in American politics, aren't going away anytime soon.
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Agreed but there's also the risk that the people who supported Sanders' movement simply become non-voters.
 
Kentonio said:
Probably, but if its ever going to work now would probably be a pretty good time. Lots of moderate Republicans feeling homeless, so you could maybe fit 3 parties into the range of ideologies pretty neatly.
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The moderate Republicans will either vote for Trump, some for Biden, not vote because they can't get behind either, or write someone in.

This is a one off election in that there's an overwhelming desperation to simply get rid of Trump and start afresh with literally anyone. Once that happens, both parties will go back to a more traditional pre 2015 paradigm. Progressives will then gain power within the Democratic party, start winning a few more seats here and there, and will ultimately have a much bigger seat at the table, thereby negating any possibility of a viable 3rd party. Those on the fringes will either moan and not participate, or else flush away their votes with a fringe party.
 
Raoul said:
The moderate Republicans will either vote for Trump, some for Biden, not vote because they can't get behind either, or write someone in.

This is a one off election in that there's an overwhelming desperation to simply get rid of Trump and start afresh with literally anyone. Once that happens, both parties will go back to a more traditional pre 2015 paradigm. Progressives will then gain power within the Democratic party, start winning a few more seats here and there, and will ultimately have a much bigger seat at the table, thereby negating any possibility of a viable 3rd party. Those on the fringes will either moan and not participate, or else flush away their votes with a fringe party.
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Will they though? Despite everything that's happened Trump is still wildly popular amongst Republican voters. Why would they accept a return to pre-2015 normality?
 
Kentonio said:
Will they though? Despite everything that's happened Trump is still wildly popular amongst Republican voters. Why would they accept a return to pre-2015 normality?
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If Trump is voted out, they don't have a Trump like character to replace him, which means the likes of Cruz, Rubio, Haley and others would have to fill the void with "good old" conservative policies, as opposed to the cult of personality funhouse autocrat orgy of nonsense that Trump brought to the table.
 
sport2793 said:
I find that most of the people in this thread who think Trump will definitely win 1) haven't provided good reasons supported by data and 2) don't live in the US. Frankly, I feel #2 is sufficient to disqualify a person's opinion on the US election. I say this as a person with a lot of family living outside the US and who has spent a lot of time out of country. The reality is that overseas news coverage of the US doesn't encapsulate or inform on how the average American truly thinks on a day to day basis and what the current priorities are. I am also sure that the news coverage has not provided sufficient context to explain just how massive of an impact both Covid-19 and George Floyd's murder have likely had on the election.

Trump may still win but it would require either massive polling error or something insane to happen in the next few months that puts Biden in a bad spot. Then again, even if the latter occurs I guarantee you that Trump will find a way to feck up massively (maybe even numerous ways for that matter) and reverse the effect on Biden in the process.
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On part 1: I get the impression that this "Biden is a terrible candidate, Trump has this in the bag" is a narrative that appeals to the biases of 2 groups that are over-represented online and 1 of which is specifically over-represented here: Trump supporters and Sanders supporters.

For Sanders supporters, not only are they hostile towards any mainstream Dem candidates, the primary was also a lot about electability and they wanted to make the argument that Sanders was the leader in that aspect too ("the electorate will embrace his policy positions because of how good they are to them"). For the MAGA crowd they also want to think that the whole election is in the bag, and they saw their candidate beat a Dem centrist last time around despite every indicator that he wouldn't.

As much as the supposed weakness of Biden regarding his age and mental decline are quite obvious, I think that there would be similar rhetoric from both groups regardless of who the Dem nominee might have been. The only thing that would change would be the weakness targeted.

That said all of the primaries and polling so far go to show that nothing is in the bag for Trump, and that Biden isn't a weak candidate. It doesn't matter what we think about Biden (I'd personally prefer a younger candidate), it matters what the electorate thinks. And the electorate by all metrics seem to prefer him vs the rest of the Dem primary field, and vs Trump at this time. That makes him actually the favorite at this point.
 
Raoul said:
If Trump is voted out, they don't have a Trump like character to replace him, which means the likes of Cruz, Rubio, Haley and others would have to fill the void with "good old" conservative policies, as opposed to the cult of personality funhouse autocrat orgy of nonsense that Trump brought to the table.
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Or Tom Cotton steps up like he plans to anyway. Or (dear god) Don Jr. Its not like it’s that hard to find a loudmouthed lying racist if you really need one.
 
MTF said:
On part 1: I get the impression that this "Biden is a terrible candidate, Trump has this in the bag" is a narrative that appeals to the biases of 2 groups that are over-represented online and 1 of which is specifically over-represented here: Trump supporters and Sanders supporters.

For Sanders supporters, not only are they hostile towards any mainstream Dem candidates, the primary was also a lot about electability and they wanted to make the argument that Sanders was the leader in that aspect too ("the electorate will embrace his policy positions because of how good they are to them"). For the MAGA crowd they also want to think that the whole election is in the bag, and they saw their candidate beat a Dem centrist last time around despite every indicator that he wouldn't.

As much as the supposed weakness of Biden regarding his age and mental decline are quite obvious, I think that there would be similar rhetoric from both groups regardless of who the Dem nominee might have been. The only thing that would change would be the weakness targeted.

That said all of the primaries and polling so far go to show that nothing is in the bag for Trump, and that Biden isn't a weak candidate. It doesn't matter what we think about Biden (I'd personally prefer a younger candidate), it matters what the electorate thinks. And the electorate by all metrics seem to prefer him vs the rest of the Dem primary field, and vs Trump at this time. That makes him actually the favorite at this point.
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Pretty amazing that Biden (despite being a specialist in failure in the past) has somehow persevered through all the drama thrown at him earlier this year.
 
Kentonio said:
Americans often say that. It's probably because you can't conceive of other nationalities caring about your politics and electoral system enough to have an educated opinion. You're extremely wrong btw, there's a lot of Europeans who know more about US politics than half your actual country does.
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I currently share a house with well educated and informed Europeans and I can comfortably say you are wrong. Again, there are just certain cultural quirks that drive the average American political opinion that can seem crazy and counter-intuitive from the outside (i.e. what drives otherwise good people to vote for Trump). I'm sure this is true for other countries (definitely true in India for example).
 
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sport2793 said:
I currently share a house with well educated and informed Europeans and I can comfortably say you are wrong.
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Well after 20 years of debating US politics with both in person groups and online forums of mixed US and European posters, I can comfortably say you’re the one who is mistaken.
 
Kentonio said:
Well after 20 years of debating US politics with both in person groups and online forums of mixed US and European posters, I can comfortably say you’re the one who is mistaken.
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We can agree to disagree but I can say that some of your takes (i.e. America being ready for a third party candidate) are just incredibly ill-informed. Just ask Justin Amash.
 
sport2793 said:
I find that most of the people in this thread who think Trump will definitely win 1) haven't provided good reasons supported by data and 2) don't live in the US. Frankly, I feel #2 is sufficient to disqualify a person's opinion on the US election. I say this as a person with a lot of family living outside the US and who has spent a lot of time out of country. The reality is that overseas news coverage of the US doesn't encapsulate or inform on how the average American truly thinks on a day to day basis and what the current priorities are. I am also sure that the news coverage has not provided sufficient context to explain just how massive of an impact both Covid-19 and George Floyd's murder have likely had on the election.

Trump may still win but it would require either massive polling error or something insane to happen in the next few months that puts Biden in a bad spot. Then again, even if the latter occurs I guarantee you that Trump will find a way to feck up massively (maybe even numerous ways for that matter) and reverse the effect on Biden in the process.
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I think what generally drive people to think that Trump still has a good chance of winning is that (1) all the negative coverage before the 2016 election did not seem to matter in the end, and (2) that Biden is not that great a candidate and is also likely to mess up.
On the first point, it is not a given that Trump's handling of Covid-19 and the George Floyd protests would have a bigger impact than all the other scandals - grab 'em by the p*ssy, pardoning war criminals, obvious fraud in his businesses, not releasing his tax returns, attacking gold star families, etc. My impression is that Trump has a substantial hardcore base that does not care about all of this, but are firmly on his side no matter what.
On the second point, I think people are still hesitant about the 1-on-1 debates to come. From what I have seen of Biden in the Democratic debates he has been a bit of a mess, almost to the point of appearing slightly senile. Trump would potentially be able to come out strongest of the debates if Biden does not improve.

Finally, I think people are just hedging their bets this time. Most people were shocked when Trump won in 2016 and are simply preparing for the worst and refusing to be surprised by whatever the result may be in November.
 
sport2793 said:
I find that most of the people in this thread who think Trump will definitely win 1) haven't provided good reasons supported by data and 2) don't live in the US. Frankly, I feel #2 is sufficient to disqualify a person's opinion on the US election. I say this as a person with a lot of family living outside the US and who has spent a lot of time out of country. The reality is that overseas news coverage of the US doesn't encapsulate or inform on how the average American truly thinks on a day to day basis and what the current priorities are. I am also sure that the news coverage has not provided sufficient context to explain just how massive of an impact both Covid-19 and George Floyd's murder have likely had on the election.

Trump may still win but it would require either massive polling error or something insane to happen in the next few months that puts Biden in a bad spot. Then again, even if the latter occurs I guarantee you that Trump will find a way to feck up massively (maybe even numerous ways for that matter) and reverse the effect on Biden in the process.
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It's really about voter turnout. It's always been about voter turnout. America is the only democratic country I know of that actively tries to make it difficult for its citizens to vote. No holidays for voting. Voter suppression laws all over the south. Provably false rhetoric about voter fraud running rampant in certain political parties. Perpetually taking away a person's right to vote even though they served their debt to society (citizens with felonies can't vote). If all eligible voters actually vote, the Republicans will never win another election and this is without mentioning the absurd electoral college.

I agree with #2. A person who doesn't live in the US has limited information about the upcoming election. I don't care how much you think you know about American politics.
 
Kentonio said:
Or Tom Cotton steps up like he plans to anyway. Or (dear god) Don Jr. Its not like it’s that hard to find a loudmouthed lying racist if you really need one.
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Tom Cotton is scarier than Don Jr. A psycho who buys birthday cake for himself almost every day. I'm sure the democrats will find a way to set things up nicely for a future Cotton run as well.
 
Drifter said:






At this stage Trump is that crazy guy in the park shouting at pigeons.
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Everything about Trump has always been about creating the illusion of strength and greatness in order to make his supporters and detractors think he is more powerful than he actually is. Literally everything he says and does feeds into this basic premise.
 
sport2793 said:
We can agree to disagree but I can say that some of your takes (i.e. America being ready for a third party candidate) are just incredibly ill-informed. Just ask Justin Amash.
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If I had said that, it would indeed be incredibly ill-informed. What I actually said (in response to Raoul saying a third party would fail) was..

“Probably, but if its ever going to work now would probably be a pretty good time.”

You seem to have overlooked the very first word there. Probably. Yes it would probably fail. My point was simply that if it’s ever going to happen, which it probably isn’t, now is probably the most likely time due to a fairly radical movement amongst the parts of the political spectrum the two current parties are actually representing.
 


the number of flat-out lies in the replies to the original tweet matches my experience with a co-worker who told me "Bernie never campagined for Hillary and is the reason she lost". media shapes reality so much that easily provable facts are memory-holed.
 
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berbatrick said:
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I remember a Tory MP (I think) saying similar when Covid took hold in the UK and the government were forced to act. They said (something like) off the record (IIRC) “We beat Corbyn by an 80 seat majority and yet here we are carrying out an even more extreme version of his fecking mandate”.

Made me chuckle at the time.
 
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