2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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golden_blunder said:
This movement is going to kick trump out at the ballot boxes. I truly believe it. Reform should start at the top. Those racist cops will regret the day
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One would assume that, but I don't think it will necessarily play out like that: Trump's divisiveness doesn't just work in a Republican vs Democrat way it also splits the Democrats in their response. Some just want a return to sanity, which I guess by US standards Biden stands for. But others get more radical and entrenched in their believes, they see the system as fundamentally broken/failed and see drastic changes as necessary and a work across the aisles centrist like Biden will never be able to satisfy that desire. Coupled with his other baggage I could see a lot of them say "feck the system" and just not vote at all.
 
do.ob said:
One would assume that, but I don't think it will necessarily play out like that: Trump's divisiveness doesn't just work in a Republican vs Democrat way it also splits the Democrats in their response. Some just want a return to sanity, which I guess by US standards Biden stands for. But others get more radical and entrenched in their believes, they see the system as fundamentally broken/failed and see drastic changes as necessary and a work across the aisles centrist like Biden will never be able to satisfy that desire. Coupled with his other baggage I could see a lot of them say "feck the system" and just not vote at all.
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More for the US election thread, but in short, many of these people aren't Democrats in the first place. A majority of actual voting Dems will vote for the nominee. The only outstanding question is whether Biden will get more independents than Trump, which so far looks like it will be the case.
 
do.ob said:
One would assume that, but I don't think it will necessarily play out like that:
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November is a long time away
And there is no knowing how these protests will end and how people will feel about them another end
One thing I do think will happen though is a change in the cv19 narrative
Trump will switch to we had it under control... the economy was bouncing back and the dems and their domestic terrorist friends caused a second wave with their riots (paraphrasing the language trump is likely to tweet)
It will be Chinese virus spread by the democrats to try to steel the election
 
sun_tzu said:
One thing I do think will happen though is a change in the cv19 narrative
Trump will switch to we had it under control... the economy was bouncing back and the dems and their domestic terrorist friends caused a second wave with their riots (paraphrasing the language trump is likely to tweet)
It will be Chinese virus spread by the democrats to try to steel the election
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This is what I think will happen as well. Come November, I think the narrative will change by a lot and the Fox News machinery will kick into full gear by then.
 
Raoul said:
More for the US election thread, but in short, many of these people aren't Democrats in the first place. A majority of actual voting Dems will vote for the nominee. The only outstanding question is whether Biden will get more independents than Trump, which so far looks like it will be the case.
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Oh yes, subsuming everyone who isn't Republican as a Democrat was lazy by me. I'm not saying that current events won't help the Dems in the election, I just wouldn't take it for granted.

sun_tzu said:
November is a long time away
And there is no knowing how these protests will end and how people will feel about them another end
One thing I do think will happen though is a change in the cv19 narrative
Trump will switch to we had it under control... the economy was bouncing back and the dems and their domestic terrorist friends caused a second wave with their riots (paraphrasing the language trump is likely to tweet)
It will be Chinese virus spread by the democrats to try to steel the election
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That too.
 
Trump will win in November.

As with every election, the more liberal-minded Twitter users will collectively shout loud enough to convince each other that meaningful change is taking place. Meanwhile, enough white people will initially be superficially sympathetic to the current messages, but secretly worried at the prospect of the status quo being challenged too abruptly for their liking, giving Trump a shy conservative edge.
 
Fener1907 said:
Trump will win in November.

As with every election, the more liberal-minded Twitter users will collectively shout loud enough to convince each other that meaningful change is taking place. Meanwhile, enough white people will initially be superficially sympathetic to the current messages, but secretly worried at the prospect of the status quo being challenged too abruptly for their liking, giving Trump a shy conservative edge.
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If your reasoning was correct, the election of Obama would have never happened.
 
iKnowNothing said:
This is what I think will happen as well. Come November, I think the narrative will change by a lot and the Fox News machinery will kick into full gear by then.
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I wouldnt put it past trump to want protests to carry on... if he can manage that PLUS shut down as many postal votes as possible just imagine how easy its going to be to designate polling booths as targets for domestic terrorism (I.e. protests) put them only in safe (republican) areas and have the military and police make sure they are safe (full of republicans)

Whilst I doubt he will get away with pushing it that far i don't doubt he will try to move in that direction
 
Fener1907 said:
Trump will win in November.

As with every election, the more liberal-minded Twitter users will collectively shout loud enough to convince each other that meaningful change is taking place. Meanwhile, enough white people will initially be superficially sympathetic to the current messages, but secretly worried at the prospect of the status quo being challenged too abruptly for their liking, giving Trump a shy conservative edge.
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Its quite possible that Twitter users will collectively shout loud enough and Trump will still not win. The big difference between 2016 and now is that people have the luxury of hindsight in terms of how Trump behaves on the job.
 
Fener1907 said:
It's 2020 and Joe Biden is no Barack Obama.
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The idea is the same : white people being afraid of status quo change. And Biden not being Obama : he is the closest to Obama they can get. He is taking advice from him and constantly referring to him during speeches. Polls show that this appears to be working.
 
The Firestarter said:
The idea is the same : white people being afraid of status quo change. And Biden not being Obama : he is the closest to Obama they can get. He is taking advice from him and constantly referring to him during speeches. Polls show that this appears to be working.
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Yet still nowhere near.

Shy conservatives are exactly why polling can't be trusted.
 
The Firestarter said:
Its the independents disgust with Hillary that handed Bunker Bitch the election. Things are very different now.
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I can see things cooling down and Biden provoking yawn-inducing apathy.

I've seen too many conservative reelections and the pre-election complacency that goes with them from the opposition to believe he's losing, and definitely not as comprehensively as is currently being made out.
 
The Firestarter said:
The idea is the same : white people being afraid of status quo change. And Biden not being Obama : he is the closest to Obama they can get. He is taking advice from him and constantly referring to him during speeches. Polls show that this appears to be working.
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I don't think Dems are looking at Biden as an Obama (which he's clearly not), but they are looking at a return to policies that Obama promoted, which Biden clearly gives you.
 
Raoul said:
Its quite possible that Twitter users will collectively shout loud enough and Trump will still not win. The big difference between 2016 and now is that people have the luxury of hindsight in terms of how Trump behaves on the job.
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I think too much is made of his conduct and it became relatively normalized, and it's easy to underestimate what voters can turn a blind eye to as long as their own interests are met, hence why he's so desperate to drive home the message about the economy.
 
If the polling shows a growing distance in favour to Biden around September/October, Could be possible that Trump would not go to elections because his ego would not cope with a defeat with the excuse that is rigged and the leamstream media yada yada yada?
 
4bars said:
If the polling shows a growing distance in favour to Biden around September/October, Could be possible that Trump would not go to elections because his ego would not cope with a defeat with the excuse that is rigged and the leamstream media yada yada yada?
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No, he cannot postpone the election without passing through both branches of Congress. And if he still ignored those results, the control of the military and secret service would pass over to Biden automatically in January. The ‘Deep State’ would actually overthrow him at that point.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
No, he cannot postpone the election without passing through both branches of Congress. And if he still ignored those results, the control of the military and secret service would pass over to Biden automatically in January. The ‘Deep State’ would actually overthrow him at that point.
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Sorry about the confusion. I meant refuse to be a candidate and not present himself as a GOP candidate
 
4bars said:
Sorry about the confusion. I meant refuse to be a candidate and not present himself as a GOP candidate
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Oh, in that case it would still be no. He wouldn’t understand what all the numbers meant even if he looked at them, and is narcissistic to the point of psychosis. In his mind he would think they were wrong and he was still going to win.
 
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Americans don’t like signs of weakness. Trump is going to hammer Biden on issues that’ll make Biden look weak, and of course make Trump look strong.
Between now and November I’m afraid that Biden will give more and more ammo to trump to hammer him on.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
Oh, in that case it would still be no. He wouldn’t understand what all the numbers meant even if he looked at them, and is narcissistic to the point of psychosis. In his mind he would think they were wrong and he was still going to win.
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I believe his narcissism would not cope with and inevitable defeat. As much as I despise him, I think he surrounded himself with very capable professionals the first elections and he would trust them if they would tell him there is no way he could win.

Anyway, will see where we are on October, cockroaches are resilient
 
utdalltheway said:
Americans don’t like signs of weakness. Trump is going to hammer Biden on issues that’ll make Biden look weak, and of course make Trump look strong.
Between now and November I’m afraid that Biden will give more and more ammo to trump to hammer him on.
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Trump looks incredibly weak at the moment.
 
Bush staffers to back Biden. This is going to hit Trump. People hated Hillary but they don't hate Biden the way they did for Hillary.
All this malarkey is doing it for Trump. All Biden and the Dems need to do is try to humiliate Trump and he is going to unravel and lose the plot completely.
 
Personally i think it's a terrible idea politically. Going back to politics that gave birth to Trump.
 
The Firestarter said:
At this point I am more concerned about him not conceding his election loss.
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100%

I saw people pointing out recently that he has drafted in militias which are loyal to him, who are wearing unmarked uniforms and he’s installing a semi-permanent perimeter fence around the White House. He’s preparing for it.
 
Pexbo said:
100%

I saw people pointing out recently that he has drafted in militias which are loyal to him, who are wearing unmarked uniforms and he’s installing a semi-permanent perimeter fence around the White House. He’s preparing for it.
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Those were initially unmarked National Guardsmen, now since they’ve left (I think? Hard to keep up) it is mostly Bureau of Prison riot control. Not a militia.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
Those were initially unmarked National Guardsmen, now since they’ve left (I think? Hard to keep up) it is mostly Bureau of Prison riot control. Not a militia.
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I use the term pejoratively.
 
Drifter said:
Personally i think it's a terrible idea politically. Going back to politics that gave birth to Trump.
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Honestly, two weeks ago I would have held this viewpoint. I was one of the people that believed under Biden nothing meaningful could happen, it would be a return to the status quo, and like you said, it would be essentially back to the politics that gave birth to Trump. In US politics I’ve always been of the view that they need someone like Bernie to truly make things different for them.

And then the protests happened, and I saw a different side to Trump. It’s a side I suspect everyone always suspected he had, but he’s seemingly become openly fascist, not even bothering to try to hide his racism, and he just keeps stoking the fire more and more, and seems outright happy to be able to pit the army and his supporters against the Americans fighting for a just cause.

That, simply cannot continue. As bad as Biden might be, and yes I know about his role in the crime bills and what not in the past, he would not have been this bad. I can’t think of any world leader that would have handled this as badly as Trump has. Even if nothing significantly good can happen under Biden, I can only see things getting worse under Trump, and for that reason alone he has to go.
 
Foxbatt said:
Bush staffers to back Biden. This is going to hit Trump. People hated Hillary but they don't hate Biden the way they did for Hillary.
All this malarkey is doing it for Trump. All Biden and the Dems need to do is try to humiliate Trump and he is going to unravel and lose the plot completely.
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So far I've seen Colin and Condy. Only a matter of time til Dubya does it as well imo.

 
Raoul said:
So far I've seen Colin and Condy. Only a matter of time til Dubya does it as well imo.

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I didn't mean politicians. Bush staffers who are still Republicans but are supporting Biden openly. The highest profile to do it openly is Rosario Marin, the Treasurer under Bush. There are other ex WH staffers under Bush in this. They are ardent Bush supporters. I don't think they will support Biden openly unless GW. gave them an approval to do so.
It's going to get more interesting with some high profile Republicans going against Trump. Will there be enough and will it carry any weight? That's the question.
 
Do we expect a lot of changes with regards to the polls in battleground states between now and November? Presumably even with attack ads isn't it the case that most people would have already made up their minds between the two due to familiarity.

Or do attack ads really make that much of a difference?
 
Foxbatt said:
I didn't mean politicians. Bush staffers who are still Republicans but are supporting Biden openly. The highest profile to do it openly is Rosario Marin, the Treasurer under Bush. There are other ex WH staffers under Bush in this. They are ardent Bush supporters. I don't think they will support Biden openly unless GW. gave them an approval to do so.
It's going to get more interesting with some high profile Republicans going against Trump. Will there be enough and will it carry any weight? That's the question.
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Ahh ok. I don't think these endorsements will matter much unless Dubya himself endorses Biden. What all of this proves is that there is a market for votes in the political center where former Obama voters who defected to Trump can be brought back, along with a small percentage of never Trump Republicans.
 
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