No, I said a lot of them aren’t actually independent in any meaningful sense, and this is borne out by polling.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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No, I said a lot of them aren’t actually independent in any meaningful sense, and this is borne out by polling.
In all honesty, I never understood why voters affiliate with some party, as in becoming registered Democrats/Republicans. It looks to me more fan-like behavior than political behavior.
They are a lot more eccentric than typical party aligned voters even if they tend to vote one way or the other in Presidential elections and their State/local election preferences tend to vary a lot more across the spectrum.
For the Presidential its a mistake to just assume independents are 50% establishment Dem/50% establishment Rep types
The establishment Dems still have recognized why Trump really won:
Michael Moore said:
https://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/
How sad.
A middle finger salute to his olive branch proposal. Biden better hope there is enough older voters and Trump hating Republicans out there .
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Bidens two biggest threats.
1. the pandemic doesn't die down or a new wave starts around the election and they go ahead as planned = Biden's enthusiasm gap is enormous. He will absolutely lose the election if the sole factor is motivation during a pandemic. That isn't my "progressive" side talking, it's simply polls that highlight they think biden has the best chance to win, but they don't particularly like him. That is disastrous simply because in this hypothetical, you don't really like biden and you have to weigh up voting for someone you don't particularly like or "potentially" getting COVID-19 in the poll queues.
2. "Moderate" Republican's get offered their usual diet of tax cuts and privitisation in the campaign, and just vote trump because it's easier to vote how you always have than change AND progressives en-masse refuse to vote or vote for Trump.
Biden is going to win the popular vote in a landslide. but trump's path to 270 is still extremely achievable.
I'm having trouble wrapping my head around this statement. Why do you think political parties exist in the first place? As long as we've had party politics, we've had people who want to join and agitate for parties. It's baked into the system.
I don’t like the usage of the word “extremely” but otherwise I think most analysts would agree with you.
Why do people register Republicans or Democrats (people, not politicians)? Just vote for whoever you think is the best and aligns more with your policies.
Of course, it is a bit different if you have political aspirations, or if the primaries are only for registered people. But this is not a US-only thing, a lot of people seem to be more fans of the parties, rather than thinking with their own head.
It will come down to the same handful of states for sure.
The best i can get Biden to is 284-254, in fact, if Trump holds NC, it actually drops to 269-269. I call that one the "Biden special"
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Florida is definitely up for grabs.
AZ will probably go Dem this time since it has been trending that way recently.
Even without FL and NC, I can get Biden to 296.
flordia is a crapshoot so i'd favour incumbency. More polls could change my mind. But it's flordia.
Arizona has had a good run of polls for biden in March but don't forget the lessons of 2016. Clinton had close to a 2pt lead in October and had pretty good polling the whole time. In the beginning of November, republicans coalesced around Trump.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html
Yes that's true but the state has been trending Blue in recent cycles - they've gained a Dem Senator and will probably gain another this Nov. Maricopa County is going to decide what happens.
FL is going to vote red
considering the quality of pollster and the run Biden has had in the march polls, I wouldn't want to be Trump right now in florida. It's always tight, and incumbency is HUGE in florida but Trump is in trouble. Incumbency and Biden being a crap candidate are trumps best hopes in florida.
I don't understand. Its April. Biden is a great candidate. They don't need our votes.
Why are centrists already trying to threaten the left into supporting Biden? Shouldn't he be able to win support with his policies and his record?
Why are centrists already trying to threaten the left into supporting Biden? Shouldn't he be able to win support with his policies and his record?
People join parties to support those parties, because they want them to do well and enact their political agenda.
I don't see what people "thinking with their own head" has to do with it. I'm 100% certain that on average, people who are members of parties are more interested in politics, and spend more time thinking about it.
I'm not American, so maybe it's different there, but you did just specify that you mean it not only as a US thing.
It really isn't all that different here, from my (secondhand) experience anyways.
Those cheddar heads need to get on board.
Time to focus on Texas
and ignore all the swing statesLiving in Maryland, my vote really doesn't count (it's a solid blue state), but I am waiting to see who his VP is before I rally behind him. I really think that if Biden wins, he may not be able to serve out his 4 year term, so I think his VP is more critical than most in recent history. If he selects Harris, there is no way I can vote for him. I'll throw a protest vote in for someone else at that point.
Would it be more sensible for the Dems to sideline Biden and nominate someone else?
Not after a majority of Dems have voted for him to be the nominee.
It will be a toss up this year imo. Obama won it twice and Biden is running on similar platform, at a time when DeSantis' popularity has taken a hit due to his virus response.
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Don't do it to yourself. That was so funny in 2016. Where was it again, Miami, Dade county?
Understand that. So shouldn't he forget about a female VP and go with Bernie to get rid of Trump? If Biden doesn't win people like James Carville would froth and blame it on everyone but themselves. I bet Putin would get most of the blame with Xi getting some too with the virus and all. I hope Boris gets some of the blame too.
It’s gone to Dems two out of the past three times, so obviously it’s going to be in play again. If Sanders was the nominee it would be a Cakewalk for Trump.
Biden was foolish to box himself in by committing to a woman imo. It basically deprives him of otherwise solid options.
What a sad state of affairs. He could still get out of it and say circumstances have changed.
He could've picked Cuomo or Newsom as VP - both have become stars for their COVID response work. He could've also picked Pete.
Sanders would obviously also be in the mix.
We are in the same MD boat
Why a no on Harris?
Hard to put finger on it but I just think she is smarmy as hell. Tulsi Gabbard destroying her in the 2nd debate about her hypocrisy as a prosecutor was the only really good thing that came out of the Gabbard campaign. In the end, she would be a way better president than Trump but I was hoping we could come up with something better.
Time to focus on Texas
That post was purely my gut instinct. I live in Florida and I see how fecked up the response to the virus and the general mood is in Miami Dade and Broward counties. Pretty sure Dems will sweep the populous counties and equally the backlash in the Panhandle and the rural Republicans quoting 'fake mejia' will be great. FL also has a propensity to shoot itself in the foot and the christian knuckleheads are already celebrating Desantis' decision not to ban church gatherings. The more they feck up the benefits program, the better chance for Republicans to come back, because weirdly, that's the fecking state we are in. I'll be delighted if it votes blue though.
Committing to a woman as VP is worth it if only it means it won’t be Pete.
Not sure Kamala is much better, mind. She’s the favorite according to some.
Not sure Kamala is much better, mind. She’s the favorite according to some.
NYT Election Guru Nate Cohn Says Biden’s Prospects Against Trump Not as ‘Rosy’ as Thought: His Lead is ‘Narrow and Tenuous’
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