Who honestly knows what will happen. 8 months is left til election day and that is an eternity in politics
On election day in 2016, the Clinton campaign were popping open the champagne bottles thinking they were heading towards a convincing win.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Who honestly knows what will happen. 8 months is left til election day and that is an eternity in politics
On election day in 2016, the Clinton campaign were popping open the champagne bottles thinking they were heading towards a convincing win.
Don't Americans normally reelect their Presidents though?
It's rare but it happens. Carter and Bush Sr. both didn't get reelected.
Awesome, given both got replaced by presidents who dragged their party's platforms to the right (Reagan and Clinton)
None. Florida will kill him. Unless Biden literally forgets where he is on a debate.
@crappycraperson
Bloomberg out. Acting rationally after his plan failed and his goals were threatened by him continuing.
The majority of the time they do. This presidency is something we have never seen before and Trump will break all norms and traditions to try to cling on to power.
Now that Biden is the favourite, expect Trump and his cronies to amp up the rhetoric on the Hunter/Ukraine story.
President for LIFE!!!
A large contingent of people probably love that though. Think about all the shit Trump says that's somehow cool and him just being a tough guy. This is America. We're just barely removed from the level of Putin with a bare chest adoration levels.
Sad part is I don't think Sanders would either.
What the exit poll data seemed to show is that the Dem voters were looking at which candidate they think will beat Trump and they overwhelmingly believe Biden is that candidate.
Bernie's key message has been medicare for all/free tuition and these policies polled really well in California, Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia, but Sanders failed to win 4 of those 5 states yesterday.
Medicare for all polled well in the other states
Sanders policies are popular, but the problem is that voters yesterday just don't think he can beat Trump and that's a key reason they overwhelmingly backed Biden yesterday.
I think one of Sanders problem going forward is he keeps refereing himself as a socialist. So even if you ask voters if they like M4A and raising the minimum wage and a host of other social safety nets and they say yes, the minute you ask them if you think USA should become a socialist country they run for the hills. I have no idea why Sanders feels politically its a good move for him to say he's a Democratic Socialist especially at this stage. Maybe he thinks it works for him , but to expand his base I think this label he has given himself is hindering him even if his actual policies are popular.
There is a long way to go and its not over by a long shot.
This is the party registration field right now.
if Biden manages to inspire enough to get people to turnout for the presidential elections, he should win comfortably.
All comes down to the economy. If the economy is in good shape 8 months from now then Trump is getting reelected. If the economy is not doing well then there's a chance that a lot of those who voted for him will flip.
not sure why people are worried about biden. he will beat trump in a recession, repeat 2008, and in 4 years we'll have president ricgard spencer.
looks worse than 2016?This is the party registration field right now.
if Biden manages to inspire enough to get people to turnout for the presidential elections, he should win comfortably.
This is the party registration field right now.
if Biden manages to inspire enough to get people to turnout for the presidential elections, he should win comfortably.
That very graph shows that the gap between Democrats and Republicans was even higher in 2016, though. And nearly as high in 2004. There has "always" been fewer Republicans than Democrats, that doesn't really mean anything, particularly with the terrible election system.
I don't really see what has happened to be honest that is hypoocritcal.
The facts are Sanders made zero effort to connect to voters beyond his base and his base happens to rely on people with the worst voting turnout. That's it. There's lessons to be learned. Much like a Corbyn his communications team based too much of their ideas on what plays well with vocal internet miniorities without appreciating how unappealing a lot of his rhetoric is to people who vote. He believed his own hype and thought he didn't need to build a coalition - like every Democrat does - to win voters. He didn't now he's paying for it. His entire plan relied on muiltiple people splitting the vote now he's paying for it.
Yeah that's nonsense. Do you really think Biden put in work that Bernie didn't? Are we ignoring Nevada and California, states with large minority populations?
The number of independents increased though, considering the GOP has enslaved itself to Trump, its fairly safe assumption that Biden could get a broad coalition between registered Dems and independents that strong enough to win.
They are all going to hurt Biden in general because they nullify every line the establishment Dems have been using.
Attack Trump with access Hollywood and they counter with Creepy Joe clips
Say Trump confuses Kansas City being in KS instead of MO and clips of Biden confuses his sister with his wife and claiming he is running for the Senate.
Call out Jared and Ivanka and nepotism of Hunter comes up.
poor Warren
Biden isn't the one othering himself from the Democrats. Sanders needs to understand this: Most people in the primary like the Democrats. Most voters in general like Obama. Democrats love Obama. They have no problem with the "establishment".
You cannot build a viable base in the Democrat primaries with his kind of rhetoric. It appeals to a minority of people. What you're left with is the majority of people who actually like Democrats coalesce behind one of them because they don't want the guy promising to tear it all down. Sanders is left with a base that can only win with a very divided vote.
Ok. Let’s see what Warren does now. Have a feeling she won’t endorse anybody upfront which will enrage the left.
Bloomberg out and endorsing Biden.. Its amazing how the entire party closes rank to keep Sanders out.
Two term trump it is.
Two term trump it is.
at this point i think she;ll endorse biden if the lead is big enough. 100% she won't endorse a loser, 50% she won't endorse anybody. i hope she gets primaried by a 19-year old Kennedy who loves Biden, just like what is happening to her senate colleague.*
thread on bernie's failure:
*edit - since this is unpragmatic, etc - yes it is, but no left-wing change is happening at all, so idc.
Sanders hasn't trashed Obama
I don't think there's enough evidence linking Bernie's rhetoric to his performance yesterday. End of the day if voters want to return to the "good old days before Trump" then there's nothing he can do to win them over without compromising his platform (not outreach) to the point where he's unrecognizable.
I mean, can you clearly outline Biden's platform? He doesn't have one, except restoring the soul of this country. If that's preferable for some voters then at the end of the day you can only hold your hands up.
The silly part about all this is that we're wrangling over turnout in states that will very most likely be delivered to Trump. If Biden wins Texas against Trump I'll concede.
We'll still blame Sanders end of the day if this occurs.
If he gets the endorsements of the wayward candidates I think he has a good shot. Sanders is the problem. He has to fully endorse Biden and quickly if he loses the nomination. He didn’t do that with Hillary. If the Dems want this guy out they have to be united in whoever wins the nomination.
problem is Sanders is a polarising figure. The moderate conservative dems won’t go for Sanders.
Sanders hasn't trashed Obama
I don't think there's enough evidence linking Bernie's rhetoric to his performance yesterday. End of the day if voters want to return to the "good old days before Trump" then there's nothing he can do to win them over without compromising his platform (not outreach) to the point where he's unrecognizable.
I mean, can you clearly outline Biden's platform? He doesn't have one, except restoring the soul of this country. If that's preferable for some voters then at the end of the day you can only hold your hands up.
The silly part about all this is that we're wrangling over turnout in states that will very most likely be delivered to Trump. If Biden wins Texas against Trump I'll concede.
We'll still blame Sanders end of the day if this occurs.
What I mean is Sanders keeps going on about the Democrat establishment.....but what is someone like Obama if not the Democrat establishment? And the voters love him. They adore him. Promising to be different to that and painting yourself as the opposition to them, it isn't what people want.
Biden's policies are fine. Expanding healthcare, zero carbon by 2050, $15 minimum wage, free community college, increased taxes on the wealthy....
He's not that exciting a candidate but its funny people paint him as a conservative when his policies are anything but. Realistically Bernie Sanders would not pass anything stronger than Biden will. I'd actually argue that he'd pass much less given Biden probably gives better chance of winning Senate seats in swing states which might return a majority.
I get what you're saying here, but do you see the irony? Sanders won't support someone - he's the problem. Someone else won't support Sanders - Sanders is the problem.
This. In my view a successful progressive candidate in the US doesn't look like Sanders, as in not someone that affiliates every 4 years to run in the primary and is then facing an uphill battle every time. Sanders sacrifices his own results to keep his purity. I think a successful progressive candidate is a long-term member of the party, who doesn't attack the party establishment so openly in his rhetoric, who shows up to lend support to other party candidates and legislative efforts when that doesn't compromise a core set of policies that said candidate is always speaking of (M4A, tax reform towards more progressiveness, higher education reform/funding, etc).
The problem is if he drops the "democratic socialist" label then he will be labelled as being an opportunist and not being authentic. Even if he were to suddenly stop using that label, the media will carry on using that label and he would still be asked questions on it and his rivals would continue to label him a socialist.
I do think that this is over now and Biden will be the nominee.
You know this is probably Bidens biggest point he could make. Its speculative but does Bernie stump and help relect a man like Doug Jones or campaign for senate races in Kentucky or even congressional house seats that are mostly conserative/moderate but with a dem rep. I dont know if he does.
Wouldn’t matter. Most of Sanders base is there because of his policies. Just his mere endorsement is not going to transfer that enthusiasm to Biden.
What is the purpose of Tulsi Gabbard. And why is she still here.
The right are getting better at humour and it’s scaring the left
One thing he could do is just stop saying it. Just talk about what he actually wants to do without using words that frieghten people into thinking he is Stalin 2.0 and coming for all the means of production and overthrow the economy. He could literally get across his message without saying he is a socialist
Yes.
yesterday, biden won among voters *who had a positive view of socialism* (who were themselves a majority of voters).
Not particularly. 18-24 year olds represent about 12% of the voting population, and that is only getting smaller as the US has fewer babies and people live longer. In any given year roughly the same number of people are born, so there's about 30m people aged 18-24 compared to say 29m aged 48-54. The obvious exception being the baby boomers, which combined with the longer lifespans and voting rates of those aged 65+ being consistently 1.5-2x that of the younger voters, has given that generation a disproportionate influence over politics for the last decade or so. That's who Biden appeals to most - the people who decide the elections.
This isn't happening. More moderate democrats are losing their seats. Doug Jones can sit on the fence all he wants, he's going home in November. The same way McCaskill and Donnolly and Hietkamp went home under Hillary. It's a pipe dream.
People have been way too sidetracked by the ultra-vocal voices in the US electorate of late - aka Sanders and Trump core, yet when you look at the groups that truly sway elections, these rarely play a direct role. They can be great for consolidating momentum, but are uncertain instigators.
Looking at the groups that have come out for Biden, I'd argue there's more concern there for Trump than those backing Bernie. Moderate, conservative suburbia and higher educated, middle-class women being two examples. These directly take from the demographics that got Trump into the White House, and that's what any candidate hoping to win 2020 has to do. (Is this the middle of American politics fighting back??)
In other words, there doesn't yet appear to be a clear step for voters going from Trump to Bernie, but there may well be for voters going from Trump to Biden.
Sadly, I think Bernie may be dead in the water here, especially if Warren doesn't concede anytime soon. I'm sure she has voices in her ear promising key roles in any future government if she stays out there to disrupt the left-wing vote.
But Sanders' difficulties lie closer to home too. His two key demographics - under 29 and Latino - aren't doing enough for him. under 29s haven't been coming out in the proportions he needed, especially considering the high-turnout. This is not dissimilar to what happened in the last UK election.
The latino vote has, it seems, but this is a group that's harder to read. Whereas the under 29s are truly feeling "the bern", Latino voters are driven much more by a genuine and real need to oust Trump. They will back whoever is opposing him, and in similar force. Once you look at Sander's support through this lens, his case looks less credible - and not because of any Dem agenda. He just doesn't have enough numbers across enough states. Trump, for all his bleating on and hat-wielding core, won because of his out-reach to floating and quiet voters.
Looking at the groups that have come out for Biden, I'd argue there's more concern there for Trump than those backing Bernie. Moderate, conservative suburbia and higher educated, middle-class women being two examples. These directly take from the demographics that got Trump into the White House, and that's what any candidate hoping to win 2020 has to do. (Is this the middle of American politics fighting back??)
In other words, there doesn't yet appear to be a clear step for voters going from Trump to Bernie, but there may well be for voters going from Trump to Biden.
Sadly, I think Bernie may be dead in the water here, especially if Warren doesn't concede anytime soon. I'm sure she has voices in her ear promising key roles in any future government if she stays out there to disrupt the left-wing vote.
But Sanders' difficulties lie closer to home too. His two key demographics - under 29 and Latino - aren't doing enough for him. under 29s haven't been coming out in the proportions he needed, especially considering the high-turnout. This is not dissimilar to what happened in the last UK election.
The latino vote has, it seems, but this is a group that's harder to read. Whereas the under 29s are truly feeling "the bern", Latino voters are driven much more by a genuine and real need to oust Trump. They will back whoever is opposing him, and in similar force. Once you look at Sander's support through this lens, his case looks less credible - and not because of any Dem agenda. He just doesn't have enough numbers across enough states. Trump, for all his bleating on and hat-wielding core, won because of his out-reach to floating and quiet voters.
Am I right in thinking Bernie voters will not vote for Biden because they feel it proves the system is corrupt and stacked against them ? So there's no difference for them having Trump win or Biden ?
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