2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Not particularly. 18-24 year olds represent about 12% of the voting population, and that is only getting smaller as the US has fewer babies and people live longer. In any given year roughly the same number of people are born, so there's about 30m people aged 18-24 compared to say 29m aged 48-54. The obvious exception being the baby boomers, which combined with the longer lifespans and voting rates of those aged 65+ being consistently 1.5-2x that of the younger voters, has given that generation a disproportionate influence over politics for the last decade or so. That's who Biden appeals to most - the people who decide the elections.

Isn't that bad news for the Democrats in the general?
 
Don't wish to intrude on personal grief, but the Democrats attempt to find someone to beat Trump is becoming laughable, surely they just need someone younger than Trump who might live out the next decade and can walk and talk at the same time?
 
What I mean is Sanders keeps going on about the Democrat establishment.....but what is someone like Obama if not the Democrat establishment? And the voters love him. They adore him. Promising to be different to that and painting yourself as the opposition to them, it isn't what people want.

Biden's policies are fine. Expanding healthcare, zero carbon by 2050, $15 minimum wage, free community college, increased taxes on the wealthy....

He's not that exciting a candidate but its funny people paint him as a conservative when his policies are anything but. Realistically Bernie Sanders would not pass anything stronger than Biden will. I'd actually argue that he'd pass much less given Biden probably gives better chance of winning Senate seats in swing states which might return a majority.

Eh I think it's just him giving it back. I've read enough articles about Sanders bringing impending doom to know there's no love lost between both sides.

That does not extend to Obama, someone who has expressed admiration for Bernie and has received the love back.

Now, if there are voters who can't comprehend the nuance there, then again, I'm not sure Bernie scaling things back will do much. Because it's not like the "establishment" will do a U-turn and welcome his platform with open arms.

All these analyses run contrary to Occam's razor: enough people dropped out and endorsed Biden, which blindsided the Sanders campaign. Free promo beating a well organized ground operation in many states, but at this point the race is close. Enough time for either candidate to make it through or feck it up. I'm not going to throw the presumed front-runner under the bus for being a meanie, not yet at least.
 
Isn't that bad news for the Democrats in the general?

I don't think it would be news to anyone really - we've known for a long time that the population is getting older. It's also getting more diverse which works in the Democrats' favour, and on the whole the demographic changes are expected to benefit them, which is why the republicans have taken such aggressive steps around gerrymandering, voter suppression etc. They're openly fearful of it and the Fox News narrative alludes to it as some kind of conspiracy often.
 
I don't really see what has happened to be honest that is hypoocritcal.

The facts are Sanders made zero effort to connect to voters beyond his base and his base happens to rely on people with the worst voting turnout. That's it. There's lessons to be learned. Much like a Corbyn his communications team based too much of their ideas on what plays well with vocal internet miniorities without appreciating how unappealing a lot of his rhetoric is to people who vote. He believed his own hype and thought he didn't need to build a coalition - like every Democrat does - to win voters. He didn't now he's paying for it. His entire plan relied on muiltiple people splitting the vote now he's paying for it.

You really don't believe what you are typing though? I mean it's good for online debates based on logical assumptions. Biden was dead and buried before SC that it prompted Bloomberg to run and some small town mayor from Indiana almost won two states.

If all centrists can unite to ensure a progressive can't win the nomination, why shouldn't a progressive turn around and say 'well I took this stance when I had a good chance, but given the circumstances, I believe that I have the best chance to win and I think we should run the convention this way'.. It will be hypocritical but it's just the same for every one.
 
I agree. All this shit that Trump is doing is a result of Obama not being able to get anything done. I give him a lot of credit for getting the basis of the affordable health care act going but he was a horrible president on the lines of Bush #2. Hell, he ended up being one of the least open presidents of our time.

I've come around to this view over the past few months. This country hasn't had up to 10 great presidents. Obama isn't in that tier. He's just one of the best of a horrible bunch.
 
at this point i think she;ll endorse biden if the lead is big enough. 100% she won't endorse a loser, 50% she won't endorse anybody. i hope she gets primaried by a 19-year old Kennedy who loves Biden, just like what is happening to her senate colleague.*

thread on bernie's failure:







*edit - since this is unpragmatic, etc - yes it is, but no left-wing change is happening at all, so idc.


Christ... there you have it, fear overrides our better angels. This is why humanity is fecked.
 
And this is where I think most people no longer really can distinguish the dems from the republicans (which is why I was really pulling for Bernie).

Currently torn between voting for whoever comes out of the Democratic nomination, and just ignoring politics and betting that I'll be fine regardless of what happens up there, and feck everyone else...
 
This. In my view a successful progressive candidate in the US doesn't look like Sanders, as in not someone that affiliates every 4 years to run in the primary and is then facing an uphill battle every time. Sanders sacrifices his own results to keep his purity. I think a successful progressive candidate is a long-term member of the party, who doesn't attack the party establishment so openly in his rhetoric, who shows up to lend support to other party candidates and legislative efforts when that doesn't compromise a core set of policies that said candidate is always speaking of (M4A, tax reform towards more progressiveness, higher education reform/funding, etc).

I don't buy this dogma "Democrats good, Republicans bad". In fact on many substantive things they're indistinguishable. Bipartisanship has created a giant turd sandwich in healthcare and higher education sectors, where you're saddled with $100k in debt for finishing university (much higher if decide to go for a graduate degree) and your financial well being is being put at risk of any hospital bills. And if you're in between jobs or part of the Uber economy (part time gigs freelancing) you're completely fecked and likely to go bankrupt if you need any serious medical care.

On foreign affairs/defense some Democrats can be even more hawkish than Republicans.
 
Christ... there you have it, fear overrides our better angels. This is why humanity is fecked.

more generational gap, even in people committed to bernie. no positive change is possible because climate change will act before millenials take over.
 
There's a comeback someone in there involving Bloomberg spending half of Trump's net worth (and that's if we believe Trump is a billionaire, which I don't).

You don't believe Trump is a billionaire? If he merely had $4 or $5B before the election (according to Forbes), I'm sure he's doubled that during the past 4 years.
 
I don't buy this dogma "Democrats good, Republicans bad". In fact on many substantive things they're indistinguishable. Bipartisanship has created a giant turd sandwich in healthcare and higher education sectors, where you're saddled with $100k in debt for finishing university (much higher if decide to go for a graduate degree) and your financial well being is being put at risk of any hospital bills. And if you're in between jobs or part of the Uber economy (part time gigs freelancing) you're completely fecked and likely to go bankrupt if you need any serious medical care.

On foreign affairs/defense some Democrats can be even more hawkish than Republicans.

Wait wait, let's close our eyes and imagine a world where centrist democrats gradually make things better
 
Am I right in thinking Bernie voters will not vote for Biden because they feel it proves the system is corrupt and stacked against them ? So there's no difference for them having Trump win or Biden ?
In many ways that will depend on whether the likes of Sanders and AOC are willing to speak up early to get folks to go out with the sole purpose to unseat Trump. Hillary was probably right about one of her criticisms of Bernie and that is that he took too long to get behind the party last time. Clearly given what happened with the shenanigans involving Wasserman-Shultz etc Bernie was right to feel angry about it - as were his voters. Crux is - how you unite the closet Republicans/conservative dems voting for a Biden or Hillary with the liberal left without disenfranchising either one - even if Bernie and Co do throw their support behind Biden early on. Ironically this would a great example of where in a more representative parliamentary democracy you d find ways to fit through the same door without alienating your platform - which of course our system is not set up to do. More importantly in this country - would the (dark?) money involved in our politics even allow for the left to be brought into the fold? So far clearly every sign seems to again be pointing in the opposite direction.
 
You don't believe Trump is a billionaire? If he merely had $4 or $5B before the election (according to Forbes), I'm sure he's doubled that during the past 4 years.

If we are talking net wealth he's nowhere near a billionaire. He's leveraged up to his bollocks in debt.
 
Am I right in thinking Bernie voters will not vote for Biden because they feel it proves the system is corrupt and stacked against them ? So there's no difference for them having Trump win or Biden ?

Probably. (and I hope so)

I would vote for the green party candidate, someone with whom you can have plenty common goals.
 
I don't buy this dogma "Democrats good, Republicans bad". In fact on many substantive things they're indistinguishable. Bipartisanship has created a giant turd sandwich in healthcare and higher education sectors, where you're saddled with $100k in debt for finishing university (much higher if decide to go for a graduate degree) and your financial well being is being put at risk of any hospital bills. And if you're in between jobs or part of the Uber economy (part time gigs freelancing) you're completely fecked and likely to go bankrupt if you need any serious medical care.

On foreign affairs/defense some Democrats can be even more hawkish than Republicans.
So the hypothetical progressive should run as a.... Republican?

By the way, I was just hypothetically game-planning. I won't ever be a core constituent for a progressive candidate. You guys can call me evil all you want, I actually am what you guys call a centrist (in current politics, not on conviction that the truth always lies in the center).
 
In many ways that will depend on whether the likes of Sanders and AOC are willing to speak up early to get folks to go out with the sole purpose to unseat Trump. Hillary was probably right about one of her criticisms of Bernie and that is that he took too long to get behind the party last time. Clearly given what happened with the shenanigans involving Wasserman-Shultz etc Bernie was right to feel angry about it - as were his voters. Crux is - how you unite the closet Republicans/conservative dems voting for a Biden or Hillary with the liberal left without disenfranchising either one - even if Bernie and Co do throw their support behind Biden early on. Ironically this would a great example of where in a more representative parliamentary democracy you d find ways to fit through the same door without alienating your platform - which of course our system is not set up to do. More importantly in this country - would the (dark?) money involved in our politics even allow for the left to be brought into the fold? So far clearly every sign seems to again be pointing in the opposite direction.

It's very possible that some of those folks in the Bernie/AOC camp probably wouldn't have voted anyway if it wasn't for Bernie's platform. Some people in Texas were in line to vote for over 7 hours... if the gain from that is just to get Trump out but nothing much will change for them, how do you convince them to come out without sounding like a phony?

If Bernie drops out, he'll endorse Biden, but then it'll be up to Biden to convince those voters to vote for him. It was an easy sell to supporters of Buttigieg and Klobuchar and co...
 
Am I right in thinking Bernie voters will not vote for Biden because they feel it proves the system is corrupt and stacked against them ? So there's no difference for them having Trump win or Biden ?

Some possibly. Some will be pragmatic and hold their noses and vote for Biden.
 
With Bernie gone after losing this election, who is gonna take all his movement?

Whoever it is, they need to run a independent campaign (plus green party, etc). Never again DNC.
 
One thing he could do is just stop saying it. Just talk about what he actually wants to do without using words that frieghten people into thinking he is Stalin 2.0 and coming for all the means of production and overthrow the economy. He could literally get across his message without saying he is a socialist

You're right of course - most people don't spend more than 5 minutes reading programs or thinking through platform issues, they just get scared by labels. Socialism = bad.

Unless you're talking about Social Security and Medicare, in which case it's good. Or highways which are shared social expenditures. Or the military, public parks and schools. Or when bailing out Goldman Sachs which was going under in 2008 from the AAG fiasco. Or bailing out auto companies like GM in 2008. Or subsidizing Big Ag o r Big Pharma. Those are fine. Just keep socialism out of my plate.
 
You don't believe Trump is a billionaire? If he merely had $4 or $5B before the election (according to Forbes), I'm sure he's doubled that during the past 4 years.

His businesses have apparently been in a slump since he became President.
 
You don't believe Trump is a billionaire? If he merely had $4 or $5B before the election (according to Forbes), I'm sure he's doubled that during the past 4 years.

I think there's a very good chance Trump isn't a billionaire, or wasn't one before his election. There is all sorts of information out there suggesting Forbes was essentially had. Trump is all about image.
 
With Bernie gone after losing this election, who is gonna take all his movement?

Whoever it is, they need to run a independent campaign (plus green party, etc). Never again DNC.

There’s no replacement for Sanders imo. His core issues will however continue to get promoted by the likes of AOC, Ro Khanna, and others within the Sanders orbit.
 
So the hypothetical progressive should run as a.... Republican?

By the way, I was just hypothetically game-planning. I won't ever be a core constituent for a progressive candidate. You guys can call me evil all you want, I actually am what you guys call a centrist (in current politics, not on conviction that the truth always lies in the center).

Well, that's one pragmatic school of thought. Another one could very well be, "this world is fecked either way, so let me make as much money as possible and I'll vote for the guys who let me keep the most of it." Hello Donald.
 
I don't think it would be news to anyone really - we've known for a long time that the population is getting older. It's also getting more diverse which works in the Democrats' favour, and on the whole the demographic changes are expected to benefit them, which is why the republicans have taken such aggressive steps around gerrymandering, voter suppression etc. They're openly fearful of it and the Fox News narrative alludes to it as some kind of conspiracy often.

That's a little too narrow.

Its the "millennials" that Bernie appeals to the most that were among the lower turnouts and that's wider than 18-24 and they will be relevant for a long time. Sadly its GenX that's getting passed over and that's the age group that, atm, is best suited to leadership. Passing from senile boomers to too young millennials is not the best plan.

FT_18.02.15_GenerationsBirths_projected.png
 
There’s no replacement for Sanders imo. His core issues will however continue to get promoted by the likes of AOC, Ro Khanna, and others within the Sanders orbit.

I can certainly see AOC running for president one day (maybe when the US is a bit more ready), but even though she could technically do it next time, she probably won't for a few cycles. And as you say, in the meantime there might be a lack of a proper Sanders-y candidate to push the leftist issues during the Presidential cycle.
 
I think there's a very good chance Trump isn't a billionaire, or wasn't one before his election. There is all sorts of information out there suggesting Forbes was essentially had. Trump is all about image.

He's inflated his net worth for sure but with the real estate he owns plus licensing deals/stock he owns, he is probably a little over a billion for sure.
 
I can certainly see AOC running for president one day (maybe when the US is a bit more ready), but even though she could technically do it next time, she probably won't for a few cycles. And as you say, in the meantime there might be a lack of a proper Sanders-y candidate to push the leftist issues during the Presidential cycle.

massive generation gap between him and the next left wave, which makes sense.
 
Didn't Obama use his executive order to implement Obama Care? Sanders would've done the same.
Nope. It had a long fight in the house and especially Senate (despite that the Dems had 60 senators). Bernie was actually an opponent of Obamacare (especially in public), and Harry Reid had to work hard to convince Bernie to vote it.

The Republicans tried to repeal it, but were not able to do so despite controlling the senate (Murkowski, Collins and ironically enough McCain voted against it).

Any plan that requires a lot of money (I am talking even for an Obamacare++, let alone Medicare for all which is gonna cost even more) will require both the house and the senate to vote for it, and it will require an increase of the taxes (which again, both the house and the senate had to vote for it). Of course, Bernie could shut down the argument if they don't give him the money, but that rarely works (Trump shut down the government for a month in order to get 6billion for the stupid wall, and Pelosi still didn't give it to him. Good luck on shutting down the government while asking for trillions of dollars with maybe 20% of senators supporting you).

Medicare for all, Green New Deal (which was a mess from the beginning), and removing the public debt had absolutely no chance of being implemented during a potential Bernie presidency. Neither of those could have been done by executive orders.
 
That's a little too narrow.

Its the "millennials" that Bernie appeals to the most that were among the lower turnouts and that's wider than 18-24 and they will be relevant for a long time. Sadly its GenX that's getting passed over and that's the age group that, atm, is best suited to leadership. Passing from senile boomers to too young millennials is not the best plan.

FT_18.02.15_GenerationsBirths_projected.png

I think all of the 18-24 year olds are Gen Z by now and I'm not sure what it is we're talking about at this point
 
His reverse psychology is infant level at best. First his IC stooges release a contextless report that the Russians are backing Bernie and since then he's been screaming about how unfair Bernie is being treated by the DNC.

It's clear as feck that they want to face Biden in November and not a populist character like Bernie who is capable of peeling an (admittedly very minor) amount of Trumps base away from him so they've been coordinating an effort to make it look like Bernie is the weak candidate they want Trump to face.
Or maybe, he just says the first thing it comes to his mind in twitter (like he does all the time), and genuinely thinks that Biden is a more difficult opponent. Let's be fair, Biden seems to have a wider support, and strangely, he won big in the states with the highest turnout.
 
You don't believe Trump is a billionaire? If he merely had $4 or $5B before the election (according to Forbes), I'm sure he's doubled that during the past 4 years.
You should read up on Forbes and Trump's history. A great insight in to that dickhead's ego.
 
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