2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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On foreign affairs/defense some Democrats can be even more hawkish than Republicans.

The perspective I had before Bernie was that a Ron Paul type would be better for the rest of the world than any Democrat. Nothing on climate change, but they weren't managing much either, and far better on war. He'd devastate a lot of Americans though.


In many ways that will depend on whether the likes of Sanders and AOC are willing to speak up early to get folks to go out with the sole purpose to unseat Trump. Hillary was probably right about one of her criticisms of Bernie and that is that he took too long to get behind the party last time. Clearly given what happened with the shenanigans involving Wasserman-Shultz etc Bernie was right to feel angry about it - as were his voters. Crux is - how you unite the closet Republicans/conservative dems voting for a Biden or Hillary with the liberal left without disenfranchising either one - even if Bernie and Co do throw their support behind Biden early on. Ironically this would a great example of where in a more representative parliamentary democracy you d find ways to fit through the same door without alienating your platform - which of course our system is not set up to do. More importantly in this country - would the (dark?) money involved in our politics even allow for the left to be brought into the fold? So far clearly every sign seems to again be pointing in the opposite direction.

Based on this thread, I'll guess that while a majority of his vote will transfer, the young ones won't transfer as well. I'm also wondering what happens to the Latino vote, which except for youth is Bernie's only base, after Biden pulled this on an immigration activist:



For all his divisiveness, Bernie has never come close to pulling this shit.
 
Nope. It had a long fight in the house and especially Senate (despite that the Dems had 60 senators). Bernie was actually an opponent of Obamacare (especially in public), and Harry Reid had to work hard to convince Bernie to vote it.

The Republicans tried to repeal it, but were not able to do so despite controlling the senate (Murkowski, Collins and ironically enough McCain voted against it).

Any plan that requires a lot of money (I am talking even for an Obamacare++, let alone Medicare for all which is gonna cost even more) will require both the house and the senate to vote for it, and it will require an increase of the taxes (which again, both the house and the senate had to vote for it). Of course, Bernie could shut down the argument if they don't give him the money, but that rarely works (Trump shut down the government for a month in order to get 6billion for the stupid wall, and Pelosi still didn't give it to him. Good luck on shutting down the government while asking for trillions of dollars with maybe 20% of senators supporting you).

Medicare for all, Green New Deal (which was a mess from the beginning), and removing the public debt had absolutely no chance of being implemented during a potential Bernie presidency. Neither of those could have been done by executive orders.

I take it you didn't read these in detail later?

Thank for this. I will read later in detail.

I am surprised then why Bernie is not releasing the projected numbers. If the most generous healthcare plan in the world is actually going to cost less money (which I think it is a contradiction in itself but anyway), why the numbers are not released?
 
I think one of Sanders problem going forward is he keeps refereing himself as a socialist. So even if you ask voters if they like M4A and raising the minimum wage and a host of other social safety nets and they say yes, the minute you ask them if you think USA should become a socialist country they run for the hills. I have no idea why Sanders feels politically its a good move for him to say he's a Democratic Socialist especially at this stage. Maybe he thinks it works for him , but to expand his base I think this label he has given himself is hindering him even if his actual policies are popular.

There is a long way to go and its not over by a long shot.
He has not been very calculating (ever in his political career), and refers to him like that because he feels that he is a Democratic Socialist. One of the very few honest politicians.

Why his staff didn't push him to make some smart moves, on the other hand, is another matter.
 
You really don't believe what you are typing though? I mean it's good for online debates based on logical assumptions. Biden was dead and buried before SC that it prompted Bloomberg to run and some small town mayor from Indiana almost won two states.

If all centrists can unite to ensure a progressive can't win the nomination, why shouldn't a progressive turn around and say 'well I took this stance when I had a good chance, but given the circumstances, I believe that I have the best chance to win and I think we should run the convention this way'.. It will be hypocritical but it's just the same for every one.
Thanks for this, well said. There's a lot of whataboutism. Bernie has to hold true to his word while the party basically throws everything at him to keep him out. That said, I think he will endorse Biden when eventually he has to concede
 
Am I right in thinking Bernie voters will not vote for Biden because they feel it proves the system is corrupt and stacked against them ? So there's no difference for them having Trump win or Biden ?
Probably. (and I hope so)

I would vote for the green party candidate, someone with whom you can have plenty common goals.
Well, that's one pragmatic school of thought. Another one could very well be, "this world is fecked either way, so let me make as much money as possible and I'll vote for the guys who let me keep the most of it." Hello Donald.

Folks who have this view are most likely white liberals who haven't ever had to face real injustice or hardship. Quite frankly, this probably describes the majority of Sanders supporters on this forum and where I live (Portland, OR). In fact, those same folks (the ones in OR, can't speak for the ones on this forum) tend to have just as much implicit bias/subtle racism to them as conservative voters.

Minorities who know how it bad it can really get know that there is definitely a difference between Trump and Biden. I've got family members being kicked out of the country due to the current administration's immigration policies. I believe that widening income inequality is a threat to the republic and structural change the likes of which Bernie is proposing can be a good step towards combating that (although making college free to everyone will only have the effect of maintaining the status quo as the rich will continue to network at the same prestigious universities). However, that is not as high priority on my list as compared to ensuring that the basic human rights of all are protected and enforced. Furthermore, structural change can be brought about gradually, no matter how much whining people on this forum, who quite frankly are not well read on history, say to the contrary.

This. In my view a successful progressive candidate in the US doesn't look like Sanders, as in not someone that affiliates every 4 years to run in the primary and is then facing an uphill battle every time. Sanders sacrifices his own results to keep his purity. I think a successful progressive candidate is a long-term member of the party, who doesn't attack the party establishment so openly in his rhetoric, who shows up to lend support to other party candidates and legislative efforts when that doesn't compromise a core set of policies that said candidate is always speaking of (M4A, tax reform towards more progressiveness, higher education reform/funding, etc).

I agree with this view. Think if you message correctly, M4A, increased progressive taxation, increased education funding will all find a majority of supporters. Have been saying that the Sanders campaign has only themselves to blame for not getting the messaging correct over the past 5 years.
 
What I mean is Sanders keeps going on about the Democrat establishment.....but what is someone like Obama if not the Democrat establishment? And the voters love him. They adore him. Promising to be different to that and painting yourself as the opposition to them, it isn't what people want.

Biden's policies are fine. Expanding healthcare, zero carbon by 2050, $15 minimum wage, free community college, increased taxes on the wealthy....

He's not that exciting a candidate but its funny people paint him as a conservative when his policies are anything but. Realistically Bernie Sanders would not pass anything stronger than Biden will. I'd actually argue that he'd pass much less given Biden probably gives better chance of winning Senate seats in swing states which might return a majority.
That is my belief too (add that Biden has a higher chance of actually winning against Trump).

The only advantage for Bernie is that he would have shifted the party to the left (same as how Trump shifted the party to the stupid), which might have had good long-term consequences. At the same time, it might ost the Dems the other elections (especially the house).
 
You really don't believe what you are typing though? I mean it's good for online debates based on logical assumptions. Biden was dead and buried before SC that it prompted Bloomberg to run and some small town mayor from Indiana almost won two states.

If all centrists can unite to ensure a progressive can't win the nomination, why shouldn't a progressive turn around and say 'well I took this stance when I had a good chance, but given the circumstances, I believe that I have the best chance to win and I think we should run the convention this way'.. It will be hypocritical but it's just the same for every one.

Never mind the fact that what he said is outright wrong. Sanders did expand his coalition quite a bit. Just not enough to counter the mass of moderates. And at that point he's not going to be Bernie Sanders.
 
This isn't happening. More moderate democrats are losing their seats. Doug Jones can sit on the fence all he wants, he's going home in November. The same way McCaskill and Donnolly and Hietkamp went home under Hillary. It's a pipe dream.
They did in 2018, though it was not under Hillary.

In the house, the majority of new congressmen were moderates, not left wings. Just that the squad are more vocal (and in case of AOC, extremely popular).
 
Or maybe, he just says the first thing it comes to his mind in twitter (like he does all the time), and genuinely thinks that Biden is a more difficult opponent. Let's be fair, Biden seems to have a wider support, and strangely, he won big in the states with the highest turnout.

“I think Bernie as vice president would have been tougher,” Trump said, referring to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 selection of Sen. Tim Kaine to be her running mate. “He was the only one I didn’t want her to pick.”

“You know, I got 20 percent of [the] Bernie vote, people don’t realize that, because of trade, because he’s a big trade guy. He basically says we’re getting screwed on trade, and he’s right. I’m worse than he is, but we can do something about it. I don’t know if he could have,” he said, presumably meaning that he is worse for free trade supporters than Sanders would be. “But had she picked Bernie Sanders, it would have been tougher,”

He's already acknowledge that he received ~20% of Bernie's voters so it's really not difficult to imagine that with the fine margins he won by last time he views Sanders as the only candidate that can actually cut into his support rather than just rely on his opposition.
 
This isn't happening. More moderate democrats are losing their seats. Doug Jones can sit on the fence all he wants, he's going home in November. The same way McCaskill and Donnolly and Hietkamp went home under Hillary. It's a pipe dream.

This isn't accurate at all, the only reason the Dems have the house is because of moderates who won swing seats. McCaskill, Donnely, and Heitkamp lost in red states that became even more red, not due to folks wanting a progressive revolution.

Doug Jones only won because of Roy Moore. Jones losing in 2020 wouldn't mean anything as if Roy Moore hadn't been the opponent, Jones wouldn't have had a seat to defend in the first place.
 
You should read up on Forbes and Trump's history. A great insight in to that dickhead's ego.
This was the first hit:

https://www.forbes.com/donald-trump/#5d22dac32899

Honestly, I don't give a shit if he's a millionaire or a billionaire. I also think despite his businesses suffering, he must have his grubby hands on so many dirty things at the moment, so he'll be fine money-wise no matter what happens in Nov.
 
I agree with this view. Think if you message correctly, M4A, increased progressive taxation, increased education funding will all find a majority of supporters. Have been saying that the Sanders campaign has only themselves to blame for not getting the messaging correct over the past 5 years.

So the media and the DNC doesn't have any blame? How you compete with 24hours of mass media news talking about how you gonna convert the country into Venezuela or Cuba? How you fight the noise?
 
I take it you didn't read these in detail later?
I've read it, it is an analysis. No one right now knows what is gonna cost, not even Bernie. Why else he hasn't made public the costs of the plan?
In any case, it will require the bill passing both chambers, which was my main point of the post. Even if only Democrats would have voted, it wouldn't pass either chamber. With GOP controlling the senate (or in the best case a marginal majority for Dems either 51-50, or 51-49,) it won't pass. There are Democrat senators (who don't come for elections until 2024) who have said that they are going to vote against it, and others who have strongly hinted that.
 
That's a little too narrow.

Its the "millennials" that Bernie appeals to the most that were among the lower turnouts and that's wider than 18-24 and they will be relevant for a long time. Sadly its GenX that's getting passed over and that's the age group that, atm, is best suited to leadership. Passing from senile boomers to too young millennials is not the best plan.

FT_18.02.15_GenerationsBirths_projected.png
I don't quite understand this. We have millennials approaching 40. Is that too young?
 
He's already acknowledge that he received ~20% of Bernie's voters so it's really not difficult to imagine that with the fine margins he won by last time he views Sanders as the only candidate that can actually cut into his support rather than just rely on his opposition.
Vice president though. That would have united the party and more or less guarantee a Democratic victory.

I still think that Biden should offer the VP to Bernie. Bernie is gonna endorse him either way (and do some lite-campaigning), but in the unlikely scenario he is on the ticket, I can see some of his voters voting for the ticket (and voting Green or staying home otherwise).
 
Or maybe, he just says the first thing it comes to his mind in twitter (like he does all the time), and genuinely thinks that Biden is a more difficult opponent. Let's be fair, Biden seems to have a wider support, and strangely, he won big in the states with the highest turnout.

By all accounts, most of these voters made their mind up in the last 48 hours - people who make up their mind in the last moment, flip-floppers, momentum voters, voters who were scared by socialism.... can be scared again in November. Just pick your poison... immigrants, drugs, some nebulous foreign threat. I like voters who are FOR something not AGAINST someone. The former have staying power, the latter not so much.
 
This was the first hit:

https://www.forbes.com/donald-trump/#5d22dac32899

Honestly, I don't give a shit if he's a millionaire or a billionaire. I also think despite his businesses suffering, he must have his grubby hands on so many dirty things at the moment, so he'll be fine money-wise no matter what happens in Nov.
He's not broke for sure but he also over and understates his wealth which in some cases is criminal. There is a reason why trump org is not a publicly traded company.
 
I take it you didn't read these in detail later?
That's disingenuous. Something can save money for the country in the aggregate, while still requiring an increase of the government budget, which in turn can't be carried through by executive order. Sanders could be 100% right but he still needs to convince congress to pass legislation.
 
So the media and the DNC doesn't have any blame? How you compete with 24hours of mass media news talking about how you gonna convert the country into Venezuela or Cuba? How you fight the noise?

I think the DNC definitely shares some responsibility in that they could have been more helpful in countering the narrative. Unfortunately, there is no love lost between Bernie and the DNC (2016 still cuts deep for both sides I suppose). I do think though that had Bernie built his friendships (maybe through Obama) inside the party (and I think he could have done this while maintaining ideological clarity), Bernie's campaign would only have had to deal with the communist dog-whistling from the GOP. Ultimately, you decrease the noise easiest by reducing the number of those who want to throw noise your way.

In terms of the media, I think MSNBC has been absolutely shameful this cycle but with that said, many non-progressive voters don't watch MSNBC anyways.
 
They did in 2018, though it was not under Hillary.

In the house, the majority of new congressmen were moderates, not left wings. Just that the squad are more vocal (and in case of AOC, extremely popular).

My point is that the argument about Biden helping the likes of red-state senators to hold on to their seats is extremely flawed. Not in this increasingly polarized climate.
 
My point is that the argument about Biden helping the likes of red-state senators to hold on to their seats is extremely flawed. Not in this increasingly polarized climate.
Ok, that is probably true. I think that Jones is doomed too (though he might get a cabinet position). He stood a chance only until Sessions entered the game. The other Democrat incumbents should be fine.
 
You know what the Houses are right?

How long are you going to keep playing that card? It didn't stop him from droning innocent civilians aboard. Or using republican talking points when addressing black communities or deporting people in record numbers. He did feck all to address the systemic racism that was hurting black people across the nation. He let down the very people who trusted him to change the system.
 
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I've read it, it is an analysis. No one right now knows what is gonna cost, not even Bernie. Why else he hasn't made public the costs of the plan?
In any case, it will require the bill passing both chambers, which was my main point of the post. Even if only Democrats would have voted, it wouldn't pass either chamber. With GOP controlling the senate (or in the best case a marginal majority for Dems either 51-50, or 51-49,) it won't pass. There are Democrat senators (who don't come for elections until 2024) who have said that they are going to vote against it, and others who have strongly hinted that.

That's quite the switch. A few minutes ago you said it was going to cost mega money, now when confronted with contradictory evidence you're saying nobody knows. Isn't it curious how you always fall back to saying it's going to cost mega money, without ever explaining how the contradictory evidence is incorrect?

Here's the latest study about it:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)33019-3/fulltext#

You and many other centrist voters put yourselves forward as the more reasoned voters, the ones who won't buy into fairytales put out by demagogues like Sanders. Any evidence put forward that contradicts your argument is flawed in unspecific ways, and the same flaws put forward your your argument are swept under the rug.

The reality is you just buy into different fairytales. The idea that Joe Biden can reach across the aisle and achieve meaningful legislation through bipartisan co-operation, when he repeatedly failed to do that alongside a more popular president in a less partisan time, is a fairytale. It's an emotional argument masquerading as a rational one. The reality is most people vote for the status quo because of fear.
 
How long are you going to keep playing that card? It didn't stop him from droning innocent civilians aboard. Or using republican talking points when addressing black communities.

And it didn't stop them from lying to the oversight bodies in Congress about mass surveillance and other activities. The Obama administration did all sorts of shit we like to think only the Republicans do.
 
Ok, that is probably true. I think that Jones is doomed too (though he might get a cabinet position). He stood a chance only until Sessions entered the game. The other Democrat incumbents should be fine.

The house should be fine regardless I think. I don't think Sanders or Biden make the house flip back to red.

Same for the senate, this year is a long shot. Maybe the map in 2 years looks much better.
 
This. In my view a successful progressive candidate in the US doesn't look like Sanders, as in not someone that affiliates every 4 years to run in the primary and is then facing an uphill battle every time. Sanders sacrifices his own results to keep his purity. I think a successful progressive candidate is a long-term member of the party, who doesn't attack the party establishment so openly in his rhetoric, who shows up to lend support to other party candidates and legislative efforts when that doesn't compromise a core set of policies that said candidate is always speaking of (M4A, tax reform towards more progressiveness, higher education reform/funding, etc).

Trump. For every one of these points, the current president.

(which show the difference between the republican base and the dem base).
 
And it didn't stop them from lying to the oversight bodies in Congress about mass surveillance and other activities. The Obama administration did all sorts of shit we like to think only the Republicans do.

So would a Sanders administration. Most of these people change their behavior once they get ahold of power and start getting briefed about threats to the country.
 
That's quite the switch. A few minutes ago you said it was going to cost mega money, now when confronted with contradictory evidence you're saying nobody knows. Isn't it curious how you always fall back to saying it's going to cost mega money, without ever explaining how the contradictory evidence is incorrect?

Here's the latest study about it:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)33019-3/fulltext#

A study means not much dude. If it was so clear, Bernie would have released the numbers a long time ago. Warren's plan (which was less generous) cost a shitload of money. If M4A would actually be better, and cost less, then why Bernie has been hiding the numbers? It just makes no sense.

You and many other centrist voters put yourselves forward as the more reasoned voters, the ones who won't buy into fairytales put out by demagogues like Sanders. Any evidence put forward that contradicts your argument is flawed.

The reality is you just buy into different fairytales. The idea that Joe Biden can reach across the aisle and achieve meaningful legislation through bipartisan co-operation, when he repeatedly failed to do that alongside a more popular president in a less partisan time is a fairytale. It's an emotional argument masquerading as a rational one. The reality is most people vote for the status quo because of fear.
Not really. But I think that he can make every Democrat senator vote with him for the big issues, and in some cases, some from Collins, Murkowski and Romney might join Dems (Romney probably less so). So, it all depends if Dems can get the senate back, which has a good chance of happening in 2022, and is a longshot in these elections. Also, GOP will probably go towards the center if Trump loses and they lose the control of the senate (in which case McTurtle is gonna retire cause the map in 2022 favors the Democrats).

I also don't consider myself a centrist. Have voted left all my life, and while in the US I cannot vote (no citizenship), Warren (left) was my first choice followed by Young (not defined in political spectrum) and Bernie * (very left). Just that I am under no illusions that any of his big plans have a tiny chance of being implemented.

* You can check my posts here before, but also on Hillary vs Bernie 4 years ago.
 
And it didn't stop them from lying to the oversight bodies in Congress about mass surveillance and other activities. The Obama administration did all sorts of shit we like to think only the Republicans do.

Also, Obama is super proud for converting USA in the biggest Oil producer in the world. (Funny now Biden saying he will go carbon free... bitch please)
 
A study means not much dude. If it was so clear, Bernie would have released the numbers a long time ago. Warren's plan (which was less generous) cost a shitload of money. If M4A would actually be better, and cost less, then why Bernie has been hiding the numbers? It just makes no sense.


Not really. But I think that he can make every Democrat senator vote with him for the big issues, and in some cases, some from Collins, Murkowski and Romney might join Dems (Romney probably less so). So, it all depends if Dems can get the senate back, which has a good chance of happening in 2022, and is a longshot in these elections.

I also don't consider myself a centrist. Have voted left all my life, and while in the US I cannot vote (no citizenship), Warren (left) was my first choice followed by Young (not defined in political spectrum) and Bernie * (very left). Just that I am under no illusions that any of his big plans have a tiny chance of being implemented.

* You can check my posts here before, but also on Hillary vs Bernie 4 years ago.

Where are you located now, and when are you putting out your ground breaking research
 
And it didn't stop them from lying to the oversight bodies in Congress about mass surveillance and other activities. The Obama administration did all sorts of shit we like to think only the Republicans do.

When you run on a platform of bringing systemic change but pivot after getting elected. You end up with no option but to resort to media-driven narratives and talking points.
 
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That's disingenuous. Something can save money for the country in the aggregate, while still requiring an increase of the government budget, which in turn can't be carried through by executive order. Sanders could be 100% right but he still needs to convince congress to pass legislation.

Of course. Getting any meaningful legislation through Congress is a long shot. The more ambitious, the more difficult it is - typically. Sanders is relying on energising a mass political movement and forcing politicians to be more responsive to the popular will. There's plenty of reasons to expect that to fail, particularly given there's no recent evidence of success. Biden is relying on moderate republicans being willing to negotiate on many issues they're firmly opposed to, through gladhanding and wheeling and dealing. There's plenty of reasons to expect that to fail, particularly given there's been countless examples of recent failure. They're both reaching for Hail Mary's. It's disingenuous to pretend that only applies to one candidate.

It's why they have reverted to the message of getting Trump out of office. It's not about policy but just about winning that first battle. They know they're likely to lose the rest of them because of the current political dynamics.

A study means not much dude. If it was so clear, Bernie would have released the numbers a long time ago. Warren's plan (which was less generous) cost a shitload of money. If M4A would actually be better, and cost less, then why Bernie has been hiding the numbers? It just makes no sense.


Not really. But I think that he can make every Democrat senator vote with him for the big issues, and in some cases, some from Collins, Murkowski and Romney might join Dems (Romney probably less so). So, it all depends if Dems can get the senate back, which has a good chance of happening in 2022, and is a longshot in these elections. Also, GOP will probably go towards the center if Trump loses and they lose the control of the senate (in which case McTurtle is gonna retire cause the map in 2022 favors the Democrats).

I also don't consider myself a centrist. Have voted left all my life, and while in the US I cannot vote (no citizenship), Warren (left) was my first choice followed by Young (not defined in political spectrum) and Bernie * (very left). Just that I am under no illusions that any of his big plans have a tiny chance of being implemented.

* You can check my posts here before, but also on Hillary vs Bernie 4 years ago.

You say you'd vote for Bernie despite not only believing his platform is unachievable, but ignoring the evidence that supports his main policies, and recycling the attack messages of his rivals. Something doesn't add up there.
 
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