2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Pexbo said:
I can't work out if the DNC genuinely believe that Biden is capable of beating Trump despite all the baggage he is carrying or whether they are prepared to accept another four years of Trump to ensure the party does not get dragged over to the left.
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Between the favorable results of the mid-terms and Biden being competitive in early h2h polling of swing states, I'd say they believe that he has about as good a chance as anyone else right now.
 
MTF said:
Between the favorable results of the mid-terms and Biden being competitive in early h2h polling of swing states, I'd say they believe that he has about as good a chance as anyone else right now.
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Millions are gonna stay home in November.
 
MTF said:
:lol: Yes, technically correct, the best kind of correct.
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Sorry, I couldn't help it. :D I fear that he may be right which worries me. I can't imagine the Bernie supporters (including me) really want another 4 years of Trump so they really should vote for who closest represents their ideals come November vs. throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
 
MarylandMUFan said:
Technicaly, with only 58% or so of eligible voters voting, he will always be right. Actually 100 million or so will stay home.
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I wonder if there's decent analysis on who stays home? Is it nearly 100% the same individuals?


I can see arguments both ways for Trump vs Sanders and Trump vs Biden. With Sanders, you'll energize new people to vote but will give independents and moderate Republicans the excuse they need (terrified of communism or whatever) to hold their nose and vote Trump.

With Biden you'd lose all that new energy but perhaps the independents go with him and the never trumpers stay home.
 
MarylandMUFan said:
Sorry, I couldn't help it. :D I fear that he may be right which worries me. I can't imagine the Bernie supporters (including me) really want another 4 years of Trump so they really should vote for who closest represents their ideals come November vs. throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
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I fear that he might be right, too. I fear anything that means Trump gets re-elected, which actually just means that I generally fear the election itself! But there is nothing so far in polling that indicates that Biden is a particularly weak candidate for the general election. That is what the democratic establishment is probably using as the basis of their assessment. All the stuff about whether his baggage (gaffes, age, "centrism", Hunter) is less or more of a handicap than Sanders' (would be the most left-leaning president ever elected) remains is, and will forever be, conjecture.
 
Stop with these polls .A lot of the so called reputable pollsters were way off last time.
 
2cents said:
What’s Warren’s explanation for her political transformation in her 40s? Mid-life crisis? Road to Damascus moment?
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Her politics haven’t moved really. She’s still a centrist on global terms.

The Republican Party moved right and away from her.

She’s an opportunist, but has some good progressive policies.

I don’t think she’s changed many big policies in her career. Student Debt is an easy win for a Conservative because those are the clever good people in her eyes.

She doesn’t go left of centre on many things. She only looks left as she’s running in America.
 
So, what happens if the nominee dies before the election then?

For clarity - I am not threatening to kill the Democratic nominee.
 
DiseaseOfTheAge said:
So, what happens if the nominee dies before the election then?

For clarity - I am not threatening to kill the Democratic nominee.
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The chair of the Democratic National Committee (currently Donna Brazile) would call a special meeting of the DNC, which is roughly a 447-person body. That body has the power to replace the party nominee, as far as the party is concerned. This is how the Democratic Party replaced Thomas Eagleton with Sargent Shriver as the VP candidate after the 1972 convention.

But how the DNC goes about making the choice — under what rules, through what process — is not spelled out further in the party rules.

On the Republican side, it would also be the Republican National Committee that would have the power to choose a replacement nominee (though the RNC is a smaller body, around 150 members, than the DNC).

Second, once the party comes up with a new nominee, the question becomes whether that candidate can now get on the ballot in various states to replace the convention’s nominee. This is an issue of state law, handled differently in different states. In some states, it is formally too late at this point to replace a party nominee for the presidential election. But the courts might well conclude that state laws that allow too short a time for replacement in the case of death or withdrawal, in a presidential election, are themselves unconstitutional.

Third, and finally, we are back to the question of how the electors vote. Suppose the convention’s nominee cannot be replaced on the ballot in time but has died or withdrawn. The party has chosen an alternative, through the process above, but that person can’t get on the ballot. And now voters who support the party — let’s say Democrats — vote for the Democratic candidate on the ballot, even though he or she has withdrawn, to express their support for the Democratic Party. What does the elector do?

We are now more or less back to the question and the scenario I described in the third case. Presumably the elector would like to vote for the person the Democratic Party has chosen to replace its nominee and does so. If state law prohibits that, is the state law unconstitutional? Is Congress obligated to accept this vote?
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ithdraws-or-dies-before-the-election-is-over/
 
It’s going to be game over tonight.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Which is on the whole probably not wrong, given the current economy.

White liberals, especially the new suburban women they’ve wooed into their ranks, really have no appetite for a real political struggle, for them it’s all about getting people they feel are qualified and polished into power and believe that the system itself should function correctly with those people in charge, while shirking at every turn from tweaking said system even if the people they elected attempt to do so.

Conservatives understand the game and the stakes involved. It’s about getting their people in to change the system to their liking.
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Americans are pathetically stupid. (As are the English, of which I am one).

They cling to this idea that change comes from the top down. Trust the messaging from the person that gets on TV most, vote for them, they will change society.

It’s so silly.

All recent movements indicate that you need to change your country from ground level. Don’t vote for people that won’t do the best for everyone.

There are some countries that blaze a different trail, Switzerland as an example.... But for most settled Western ‘Democracies’, Governments help the top of society before the bottom.
 
Raoul said:
Sanders should end up with a lead of 100-200 delegates imo.
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Idk man, 538 model has swung to Biden now gaining more delegates than Sanders today. Will be interesting to see if this model holds up.
 
Raoul said:
This is quite the swing.....

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Unsurprising to be honest. It's always been clear that there are more "moderates" than "progressives" in the Dem party, no matter how much that angers some in here. Once the more centrist faction coalesced around a candidate they would start to build a solid lead in the polls. Think Sanders would have had it easiest had Buttigieg or Klobuchar stayed in the race but will see now if it is too late for Biden to pick up steam.
 
Florida Man said:
No now we don’t want to alienate the company presidents who make up a large chunk of the electorate.
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It would be interesting in see the break down of the small business owners who support Bernie as I constantly hear contract workers with no unions rights called themselves small business owners. Such is the hell world we live in.
 
538 now calling fo Biden to have a plurality of delegates 1738 to 1363 for Sanders with Bloomberg the King maker at 566
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
Americans are pathetically stupid. (As are the English, of which I am one).
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Not sure what your on about



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Canuckred64 said:
538 now calling fo Biden to have a plurality of delegates 1738 to 1363 for Sanders with Bloomberg the King maker at 566
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Sanders has no path to the nomination if he is not the one with the most delegates. He would need a lead of 200-300 going into the convention to realistically be able to win it.
 
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