the polls were super weird in SC. Bernie was getting closer before the Nevada caucus which in itself seemed weird as I thought he had absolutely no chance being within 10-15% off Biden there. But after a very very far second place in Nevada, Biden just shot up in SC for no particular reason. And Clyburn's endorsement seems to have added 10+% on top of those latest polls.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Yeah, but SC is an open primary, so with Trump the obvious nominee, many GOP folks will have gone and voted yesterday. On top of that, the Democratic electorate in this state is largely centrist in general. Bernie being within 15 would have been what shocked me.
Wait, you don't have to be a registered democrat or something like that to be able to vote in the primaries?
Silly ain’t it?
Why is Bernie not able to appeal to the majority of black voters?
Its more so a generational issue. He is appealing to an increasing number in the younger demographics, but far less so among the older ones. Its partly down to many of them being part of the old Dem party coalitions that Bill Clinton and later Obama built, which tends to make them skew towards Biden.
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Because the SC older ones are happy with their lot.Despite it not helping them. But Black voters in SC do not represent black voters in other parts of the country.
Sure, but their final prediction had Biden winning by 19 points, which is very significant. Things change quickly, we can't rely on old polls.
That is just crazy. If the opposition truly wanted to they could really mess with your parties selection. I would have thought it was common sense that the process to select your leader would only be voted from your own party.
Yes and No. If I were a Republican who is turned off by Trump and considering voting for Biden, I would want that option in the primary process without having to deal with the administrative hassle of having to change parties for a one off vote. Obviously, it could be abused but it would take a fairly orchestrated effort for it to make a massive difference in the results.
Bloomberg buys 3 minute ad to Address the nation.
Joe Biden thanks ‘Chuck’ for interview after Chris Wallace asks him about his mental capacity
Oh dear.
Oh dear.
Chris or Chuck, what does it matter.... Praising Castro about his literacy rates however.. Don't turn senile Bernie for feck sake
Anything is possible. Super Tuesday will see people dropping out. Lots of their supporters could see Sanders as their best second choice and he trounces anyone left.
Yeah this would be an issue if the opposition wasn't a stable genius. Now Democrats as usual hurt themselves with these nitpicks.
that model is way too sensitive to be taken seriously. aggregate of polls is still the best, even if it might miss the margin sometimes.
This one example could be called a nitpick but also Biden health is clearly an issue.
Even if he's moderately senile, look who he's competing against. Sanders and Warren are both septagenarians, so is Bloomberg, as is Trump. None of these candidates are in their best ages.
If anything Biden has an excuse that he's been jobless for 4 years now and he was a VP to a younger president before that, which is as close to retirement as it gets.
Surely if anything, the problem for SC was that it wasn't sensitive enough, though? It's done quite well so far, certainly better than most pundits.
First signs that the gamble won't pay off enough. Biden in big trouble unless same day voters en masse switch to biden
Biden's strategy will be to finish 2nd in both CA and TX - above 15% where he gets some delegates. Then take most delegates from the southern states AL, AR, NC, TN, and VA. If he does this, he will be within striking distance of Sanders before the next big round of primaries.
whats the argument put forward at the convention by Biden if he loses California and Texas by double digits? Or can we assume this is all a shell game and the convention has already been decided barring a Sanders majority? Which won't happen obviously.
California is an easy one since either Biden or Sanders would both easily beat Trump there, so those 50 something delegates would be safe. Texas isn't currently in play for the Dems, so Trump would be expected to take all delegates there.
Sanders goes into the 2020 convention with a pluarlity, Biden needs Cali and Texas delegates to switch on successive rounds, not only do i question how he does that if he gets poor results on Tuesday, (that first cali polls shows Biden <15%) but the convention getting to that stage will essentially reelect Trump on the spot.
What's the argument to take the nomination away from the plurality winner (likely using delegates from states he got crushed in) and still having a path to victory?
Buttigieg just dropped out
Bye pete
Pete really doesn't like Sanders.
He didn't drop out. He partook in an exploratory exercise to examine the potential effect of remaining in the Democratic Presidential race and has concluded after extensive statistical analysis that his path to the white house has hit the road block of inevitability.
#dropoutWarren
How she justifies staying in now is beyond me. She likely loses her home state to bernie as well going on recent polls.
Oh feck. Warren is staying in till end March while Pete is clearing his lane. Her one and only aim is to stop Bernie. Snake.
The easiest way to look at things is that if Biden is close to Sanders, the SuperDelegates will probably come into play and there's a good chance he could come out on top. Sanders could of course get more than 1886 delegates before the convention and win it like that. Otherwise, there will be a fight that would likely result in Sanders not getting the nomination.
Oh give over. I think Warren should have dropped out yesterday but thinking she is in to hurt Sanders alone is beyond idiotic. Even if she is doing that, don't moan about it but keep saying what red dreams does.. That policies win votes and you may be will get her share instead of calling her a snake which is a sure fire way of driving them away. I mean you can do it here I guess but if the Sanders fans now start some Twitter campaign like how a vocal minority blamed Clyburn of being a race traitor, just please God.. No
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