2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

Status
Not open for further replies.
Of course I want Bernie to win but (And maybe it's because his brain is clearly melting) I sort of like Biden. Of course he's scum like all the others except Bernie but I do get why people like him.

And a Trump vs Biden debate is truly want we as a world deserve.
 
Last edited:
Should be a big day for Sanders with Biden doing well in the south.


df2b18d6-86de-4a9a-b1ee-e5e8af523ba9-SuperTuesday-states.png
 
Florida Man said:
Is it really even shocking though? Hawaiian Harvey Dent she is.
Click to expand...
From Bernie's No. 1 fan to a potential spoiler in the general election.

To be fair, I thought that she was doing everything right until at some stage she decided to be permanently on Fox and voted present in Trump's impeachment.
 
Revan said:
From Bernie's No. 1 fan to a potential spoiler in the general election.

To be fair, I thought that she was doing everything right until at some stage she decided to be permanently on Fox and voted present in Trump's impeachment.
Click to expand...
She changed her spots in typical politician fashion.
 
Florida Man said:
Biden probably gets Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and maybe Utah? Rest go to Bernie.
Click to expand...

Bernie is up big in Utah. Biden definitely takes TN, AL, AR, and OK - he will probably break even with Sanders in VA and NC. Bernie should get most of his delegates from CA.
 
that was pretty terrible. bernie didn't underperform his polls by much but biden realy consolidted the vote, far above his polling.
 
i'm surpried the media haven't picked up on this, but bernie has a women problem. not in the bullshit online tweets way, but in terms of votes. he did better among women voters in 2016 against kween herself, than against these 2 different male front-runners now.

and the candidate attracting a disproportionately female base? warren. her staying in the race, now backed by the largest super PACs, is the best way for the DNC to stop bernie well short of a majority.
 
@InfiniteBoredom do you know how the number of delegates per state is decided? i thought it was weighed by how blue the state is, but ...

Nevada - 3/4 reps are Dems, so is the governor and both senators, Obama and Clinton carried it. 36 delegates.

SC - 2/7 reps are Dems, and nothing else, no Dem has come close. 54 delegates.
 
Sir Matt said:
Delegates are apportioned by state population. South Carolina has a population of 5 million. Nevada has a population of 3 million. Hence the difference.
Click to expand...

hm, i thought it was population weighted by democratic representation.
 
berbatrick said:
hm, i thought it was population weighted by democratic representation.
Click to expand...

I was wrong. The numbers just happened to be roughly proportional to the populations of IA/NV to SC.

Apparently it's some complicated formula based on that, but it goes by both percentage and total vote so states with larger populations have higher delegate counts despite potentially lower percentage of democratic voters.

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Alloc.phtml
 
Biden Blue
Sanders light Purple

Says it all really, huge turn out for those that "want things to stay the same, or go back to better times" vs those that wanted to see new change in their futures.

jgZuX1r.jpg
 
Sir Matt said:
I was wrong. The numbers just happened to be roughly proportional to the populations of IA/NV to SC.

Apparently it's some complicated formula based on that, but it goes by both percentage and total vote so states with larger populations have higher delegate counts despite potentially lower percentage of democratic voters.

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Alloc.phtml
Click to expand...

thanks
 
WPMUFC said:
Biden Blue
Sanders light Purple

Says it all really, huge turn out for those that "want things to stay the same, or go back to better times" vs those that wanted to see new change in their futures.

jgZuX1r.jpg
Click to expand...

Depending on a notoriously unreliable group of voters (young people) to offset losses of more moderate potential voters (suburban moderates) seems like a bad gamble. Those older voters are going to turn out in November far more consistently than young voters.
 
Eboue said:
For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia.
Click to expand...

I imagine that was the exact line given to hillary clinton by the democratic consultants as they cashed in their consultancy fees
 
berbatrick said:
i'm surpried the media haven't picked up on this, but bernie has a women problem. not in the bullshit online tweets way, but in terms of votes. he did better among women voters in 2016 against kween herself, than against these 2 different male front-runners now.

and the candidate attracting a disproportionately female base? warren. her staying in the race, now backed by the largest super PACs, is the best way for the DNC to stop bernie well short of a majority.
Click to expand...

Bernie Bro prophecy coming to fruition. :eek:

Warren in her speech against emphasised going to convention with as many delegates she can gather, nothing even about trying to win any state in Super Tuesday. Think she wants a VP deal with Bernie or else will try to her best to tank him.
 
New poll has Sanders 20+ in California and +9 in Texas. Biden's strength with "older black voters that want a return to Obama's policies" as highlighted in the SC exit polls has to then compete with Biden having no support with Latinos coming out of NV.

Also:

['‘He Hasn’t Been Here’: Why Joe Biden Lags in Super Tuesday States']

['Interviews with party leaders in half a dozen Super Tuesday states suggest that the same vulnerabilities that plagued Mr. Biden beginning in Iowa — subpar organization, limited outreach to local Democrats and a late start to campaigning — are holding him back in the states that next week will dole out a third of the total delegates in the Democratic primary.']

['Aside from fund-raising, he has not campaigned in a Super Tuesday state in over a month, though he is planning to visit North Carolina, Alabama, Virginia, Texas and California between Saturday and Tuesday.']
Click to expand...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/us/politics/joe-biden-california-super-tuesday.html

Biden was essentially hoping SC was going to be a big enough win to galvinise the moderates behind him and bury the rest of them in Super Tuesday. Only a few days to see if that gamble pays off. It either works and it's a contested convention between Sanders and Biden, or fails horribly and Sanders goes gangbusters across Super Tuesday with SC being an anomaly.
 
Joe Biden hasn't visited a ST state in over a month and has not bought any ads. According to reports, ST ad spends were

Bloomberg 183 million
Sanders 13 million
Biden "Six figures"

The NYT times i posted above, Joe Biden has 1 campaign office in California....Sanders has 23.

It ALL been about South Carolina being a big enough win that he destroys the other moderates and hopes ST delegates aren't TOO much in favour of Bernie. HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE gamble.

 
‘Liberals are panicking pussies’ is best demonstrated by this thread.

Sanders will win Super Tuesday, and neither Buttchug nor Biden have the resources to compete in March 20 and beyond. Their donors have maxed out, and with Bloomberg still spending money hand over fist, that sweet moderate consolidation in nowhere near.

This isn’t 1860, you won’t have a situation where someone with nearly double the amount of delegates on the first ballot is denied the nomination (R.I.P Seward).
 
Donut said:
So is Biden the favorite again after this big win?
Click to expand...

Bernie Sanders is the favourite to win the most number of delegates by the time of the convention. Biden will likely be second place by the convention. Sanders will likely not have the majority needed to win the nomination. As such time, the DNC will likely use super delegates to give Biden the nomination.
 
WPMUFC said:
Bernie Sanders is the favourite to win the most number of delegates by the time of the convention. Biden will likely be second place by the convention. Sanders will likely not have the majority needed to win the nomination. As such time, the DNC will likely use super delegates to give Biden the nomination.
Click to expand...

Thanks. That's grim. Could Bernie still get enough delegates with a huge win on ST?
 
Donut said:
Thanks. That's grim. Could Bernie still get enough delegates with a huge win on ST?
Click to expand...

probably not, because there will be enough candidates over all the contests to hit 15% which gives them delegates. So to put this in perspective, 538 is averaging that bloomberg not even winning a state, could get 590 delegates by the convention. It's only an average, across a large spread of possibilities but he will take delegates.

There's always the outside possibility that Sanders runs away with it. But the opposite of that is that Biden's gamble pays off and he sucks up a huge number of delegates based off nothing more than " a convincing South Carolina win"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
 
WPMUFC said:
probably not, because there will be enough candidates over all the contests to hit 15% which gives them delegates. So to put this in perspective, 538 is averaging that bloomberg not even winning a state, could get 590 delegates by the convention. It's only an average, across a large spread of possibilities but he will take delegates.

There's always the outside possibility that Sanders runs away with it. But the opposite of that is that Biden's gamble pays off and he sucks up a huge number of delegates based off nothing more than " a convincing South Carolina win"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
Click to expand...

Bloomberg takes votes away from Biden.

SC. Bernie got 11 delegates. Pretty good.
 
Red Dreams said:
Bloomberg takes votes away from Biden.

SC. Bernie got 11 delegates. Pretty good.
Click to expand...

I'm surprised Biden won by 30 points. Was expecting something closer to a 10-12 point victory. Expect this to give him some momentum in the other southern states on Tuesday.
 
Raoul said:
I'm surprised Biden won by 30 points. Was expecting something closer to a 10-12 point victory. Expect this to give him some momentum in the other southern states on Tuesday.
Click to expand...

he had a blowout. the party structure there is strong obviously.
I agree it will help him in the Southern states.
It is a race for delegates. Sanders leads by 10.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.