That sounds like his game plan rather than his endgame.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Joe Biden selects Kamala Harris as his VP running mate Ronaldo’s ego gives his prediction Lay gives his prediction Successfully gets phone charger Networks announce Biden is President Elect of the United States Kushner approaches Trump about conceding GSA sign off Biden team access to funds etcThat sounds like his game plan rather than his endgame.
Red Dreams
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The end game appears to be peeling off enough delegates in the primaries to where no candidate can reach the amount needed to nominate, then force a brokered convention where party elites decide who the nominee is. That is the low probability best case scenario he is probably banking on.
Will this not effectively split the party and hand Trump another term?
DOTA
wants Amber Rudd to call him a naughty boy
Just the ad spend. Then there's what he's paying his team that now employs half of the millennial population of America.
It's a point that's been largely blunted in the United States....seem to have heard this before.
Will this not effectively split the party and hand Trump another term?
Suppose it would depend on who the eventual nominee is .
Red Dreams
Full Member
Just the ad spend. Then there's what he's paying his team that now employs half of the millennial population of America.
It's a point that's been largely blunted in the United States.
Lets be clear, CNN and MSNBC are in his pocket already. Just their defence of him against accusations of being an Oligarch which I saw in disbelief.
Grinner
Not fat gutted. Hirsuteness of shoulders TBD.
Rich people know what's best for us.
Red Dreams
Full Member
Suppose it would depend on who the eventual nominee is .
In the end it is about the voters.
If voters feel they have been cheated, the will actually turn against the party.
The safest route would be to get enough delegates to the clear leader to pass the line.
DOTA
wants Amber Rudd to call him a naughty boy
You the proletariat these days?Rich people know what's best for us.
Organic Potatoes
Full Member
In your fever dream of no one but Bernie, yes.Will this not effectively split the party and hand Trump another term?
In reality, no. Most viable candidates are a coin flip at worst against Donald.
Grinner
Not fat gutted. Hirsuteness of shoulders TBD.
You the proletariat these days?
I'm hardly rich.
In the end it is about the voters.
If voters feel they have been cheated, the will actually turn against the party.
The safest route would be to get enough delegates to the clear leader to pass the line.
I agree. Let the normal process play out. Bloomberg's presence will ultimately only foment discontent.
Red Dreams
Full Member
In your fever dream of anyone but Bernie, yes.
In reality, no. Most viable candidates are a coin flip at worst against Donald.
The mantra of 'better than Trump' does not work with a close copy of another candidate like him.
DOTA
wants Amber Rudd to call him a naughty boy
Always had you down as pretty comfortable, to say the least. Swimming pool type. Probably just based on your yuppie days.I'm hardly rich.
Red Dreams
Full Member
I agree. Let the normal process play out. Bloomberg's presence will ultimately only foment discontent.
The Democratic Party has shown their true colors by the 'rule change'.
They have effectively openly surrendered to big money thus destroying their argument of being for the working class and poor.
Very unlikely that Dems can get the senate. Assuming that Doug Jones loses his seat (quite a safe assumption), Dems need to win 4 seats to have a 50-50 senate. Hickenlooper will flip Colorado, but Dems then need to flip another 3 seats. Susan Collins is very vulnerable, but she played cards rights to vote for witnesses, and she has been in Senate for 22 years, so it is quite unlikely that she will lose her seat despite her being temporary not popular (cause of Kavanaugh vote). Georgia has both seats in play but is it a leaning Republican state. Arizona has a seat in play, but can Dems win another seat in a leaning Republican country? Then there is Texas, but I just cannot see it happening, even a strong Dem candidate couldn't unseat an unpopular senator (Cruz), I don't think some random challenger will unseat Cornyn.All this talk about POTUS, what are the senate races in play? Projections on chances of a Dem majority? Sanders in the WH is meaningless if Mitch still runs the show.
So, it is quite bad. Not as bad as 2 years ago, but still I cannot see Dems getting the senate until 2022.
DOTA
wants Amber Rudd to call him a naughty boy
Worth adding that everyone who's ever worked on a dem campaign is currently working for Mike 2020, so they're having a lot of difficulty finding people.Very unlikely that Dems can get the senate. Assuming that Doug Jones loses his seat (quite a safe assumption), Dems need to win 4 seats to have a 50-50 senate. Hickenlooper will flip Colorado, but Dems then need to flip another 3 seats. Susan Collins is very vulnerable, but she played cards rights to vote for witnesses, and she has been in Senate for 22 years, so it is quite unlikely that she will lose her seat despite her being temporary not popular (cause of Kavanaugh vote). Georgia has both seats in play but is it a leaning Republican state. Arizona has a seat in play, but can Dems win another seat in a leaning Republican country? Then there is Texas, but I just cannot see it happening, even a strong Dem candidate couldn't unseat an unpopular senator (Cruz), I don't think some random challenger will unseat Cornyn.
So, it is quite bad. Not as bad as 2 years ago, but still I cannot see Dems getting the senate until 2022.
That would guarantee a Trump win though. Whoever wins the most delegates should get the nomination, otherwise Trump will easily win the election.The end game appears to be peeling off enough delegates in the primaries to where no candidate can reach the amount needed to nominate, then force a brokered convention where party elites decide who the nominee is. That is the low probability best case scenario he is probably banking on.
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trump can and will run to his left
Very unlikely that Dems can get the senate. Assuming that Doug Jones loses his seat (quite a safe assumption), Dems need to win 4 seats to have a 50-50 senate. Hickenlooper will flip Colorado, but Dems then need to flip another 3 seats. Susan Collins is very vulnerable, but she played cards rights to vote for witnesses, and she has been in Senate for 22 years, so it is quite unlikely that she will lose her seat despite her being temporary not popular (cause of Kavanaugh vote). Georgia has both seats in play but is it a leaning Republican state. Arizona has a seat in play, but can Dems win another seat in a leaning Republican country? Then there is Texas, but I just cannot see it happening, even a strong Dem candidate couldn't unseat an unpopular senator (Cruz), I don't think some random challenger will unseat Cornyn.
So, it is quite bad. Not as bad as 2 years ago, but still I cannot see Dems getting the senate until 2022.
The only wildcard in all of this is if the Dems get a massive turnout in November that sweeps Congress their way. The generic ballot is plus 6 for the Dems right now, which could get them about 4 seats.
AZ, CO, ME, and IA would be the Dem gains with the high turnout. AL being the one loss.
trump can and will run to his left
Geez, this is brutal. Though to be fair, like Trump, he is a chameleon too and would pivot to the left (similar to how Trump went from a centrist to a very right-wing politician).
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DOTA
wants Amber Rudd to call him a naughty boy
Yep.trump can and will run to his left
One of the problems with the majority opposition during Trump's time as president consisting of 'his behaviour is appalling' is that, immigration aside, it has drowned out scrutiny of any of the hard right decisions he's taken and he can once again run on whatever chaotic list of promises he wants.
EDIT - I still don't think he needs policies though. If he's capable, then just going the country smiling and kissing babies would be his best bet.
This is close to a best-case scenario though (well, the best case would be this, plus one of Georgia's seats and Jones keeping Alabama). I don't see it happening.The only wildcard in all of this is if the Dems get a massive turnout in November that sweeps Congress their way. The generic ballot is plus 6 for the Dems right now, which could get them about 4 seats.
AZ, CO, ME, and IA would be the Dem gains with the high turnout. AL being the one loss.
This is close to a best-case scenario though (well, the best case would be this, plus one of Georgia's seats and Jones keeping Alabama). I don't see it happening.
It depends on turnout. If for example, Sanders manages to get any of the 25% of Americans who don't vote to show up, it could end up a bloodbath for the GOP, even if Trump's flock show up en masse.
DOTA
wants Amber Rudd to call him a naughty boy
Do first time voters tend to vote down ballot?It depends on turnout. If for example, Sanders manages to get any of the 25% of Americans who don't vote to show up, it could end up a bloodbath for the GOP, even if Trump's flock show up en masse.
Yep. A large turnout will help the Democrats, but I still think it is hard to happen. Democrats are very divided and if Sanders wins, it is hard to see the centrists turning on mass (same if some centrist wins, then the left-wing part of the party won't be that enthusiastic to vote). I think that Sanders has the best chance of energizing the people though, hard to get energized for the status-quo which is what the other people who are running offer.It depends on turnout. If for example, Sanders manages to get any of the 25% of Americans who don't vote to show up, it could end up a bloodbath for the GOP, even if Trump's flock show up en masse.
Yep. A large turnout will help the Democrats, but I still think it is hard to happen. Democrats are very divided and if Sanders wins, it is hard to see the centrists turning on mass (same if some centrist wins, then the left-wing part of the party won't be that enthusiastic to vote). I think that Sanders has the best chance of energizing the people though, hard to get energized for the status-quo which is what the other people who are running offer.
I think the centre are much more likely to vote for Bernie in numbers purely to see the back of Trump than the left are to vote for a centrist to get rid of Trump.
Do first time voters tend to vote down ballot?
The presumption is many would vote across the ticket for the same party since its all part of the same ballot.
Probably. On the other hand, I have seen recently people attacking Bernie much more than Bernie fans attacking the other politicians (probably except Biden). If Warren had played her cards right, I think she could have unified the party (which is why I wanted her to win). Hard to see Bernie or Biden doing so (Buttigieg might, by simply not having political baggage, Bloomberg no, but he can spend 2 billion in adds and brainwash everyone).I think the centre are much more likely to vote for Bernie in numbers purely to see the back of Trump than the left are to vote for a centrist to get rid of Trump.
Dunno, with each day passing, I see the event of another Trump presidency happening more. And this seems the general consensus when I talk with people about it (despite living in probably the most left-wing part of the US). At this stage, I think only a big recession similar to that of 2008 can stop Trump. And hard to see it happening (of course, I wouldn't want it to happen in the first place).
In the last elections (if I am not mistaken), every senate race went down the same way as the presidential race.The presumption is many would vote across the ticket for the same party since its all part of the same ballot.
fishfingers15
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You should have. You were goin on about Trump like a chump...seem to have heard this before.
4bars
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Proof ?
Asking proof after you posting this
It’s likely that he did say that to her if that’s how he felt, and didn’t remember saying it since, well, he has a lot of things on his plate and didn’t think it was a memorable exchange.
Is quite rich. You based everything in assumptions and in a hot mic acusations and you ask for proof. Where are YOUR proof? start there
Asking proof after you posting this
Is quite rich. You based everything in assumptions and in a hot mic acusations and you ask for proof. Where are YOUR proof? start there
They've both admitted the convo took place but have different interpretations of it.
4bars
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They've both admitted the convo took place but have different interpretations of it.
And you pick the version that you feel. because... without any proof
And you pick the version that you feel. because... without any proof
The fact that the conversation took place is the proof. It can also be logically inferred that both of them interpreted it differently, or that one of them is lying on national TV to avoid being embarrassed. Unlike RD’s claims, admitting the conversation taking place is ample evidence that it happened.
4bars
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The fact that the conversation took place is the proof. It can also be logically inferred that both of them interpreted it differently, or that one of them is lying on national TV to avoid being embarrassed. Unlike RD’s claims, admitting the conversation taking place is ample evidence that it happened.
I picked a side on the version that the press and the sides are spinning around and you said "likely" so basically you know nothing on what happens. I don't think that this is any proof and RD is spinning his opinion based on the same external sources as you do. I see no difference and neither of you has proof of anything. Asking proof (you or him) is unfair if you don't have it in the first place
But I am leaving it here, I guess is part of the fun the guess game everybody as nobody can disproof
Red Dreams
Full Member
The only wildcard in all of this is if the Dems get a massive turnout in November that sweeps Congress their way. The generic ballot is plus 6 for the Dems right now, which could get them about 4 seats.
AZ, CO, ME, and IA would be the Dem gains with the high turnout. AL being the one loss.
In 2016 Trump turned out voters who had not voted before.
Sanders with his movement will do the same.
If Sanders is the nominee, the Dems will take Congress and the Presidency, while increasing the house.
In 2016 Trump turned out voters who had not voted before.
Sanders with his movement will do the same.
If Sanders is the nominee, the Dems will take Congress and the Presidency, while increasing the house.
Hopefully this happens, but I haven't yet seen any signs of activating new voters. If we see it happen around Super Tuesday then that will be a big positive for the Gen in Nov.
Red Dreams
Full Member
I picked a side on the version that the press and the sides are spinning around and you said "likely" so basically you know nothing on what happens. I don't think that this is any proof and RD is spinning his opinion based on the same external sources as you do. I see no difference and neither of you has proof of anything. Asking proof (you or him) is unfair if you don't have it in the first place
But I am leaving it here, I guess is part of the fun the guess game everybody as nobody can disproof
There can be no proof from a private conversation where two people say different things.
What I spoke of is to look at motive and actions.
Consistency. Does what one person do match up with what that person says.
What must be ignored are feelings and outside interpretations. Simply look at facts.
When all is said and done you will only come to a conclusion based on facts that are available.
It would seem based on what has happened in terms of results and Forecasts (polls), the general public has come to a conclusion that does not favor Warren.
Red Dreams
Full Member
Hopefully this happens, but I haven't yet seen any signs of activating new voters. If we see it happen around Super Tuesday then that will be a big positive for the Gen in Nov.
By Super Tuesday we will know who the nominee will be. Should it be Sanders, he will have momentum and you can be certain he will generate huge turnout.
Obama was a good speaker. Sanders is different. He speaks with conviction about what he has been fighting for all his life.
The big issues this cycle are Health Care and Climate Change.
Trump will not turn out new voters. But Sanders will peel off people who were lied to by Trump.
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