2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Eboue said:
In that case, I also call on Harris to drop out. Running against Bernie is running as a spoiler.
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I think Biden should drop out; he's demographically too similar to Bernie and frankly that's not a good look.
 
Suedesi said:
I'm liking Warren more and more.
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The only problem I see is her getting walked all over by Trump in the 'debates'. He already scored a win over her with the Pocahontas/proof of her heritage crap. I think she's too 'nice' to stand up to him.

Kamala Harris on the other hand...
 
Red Dreams said:
I'm not sure who Warren would pick as VP.
But I'm certain Bernie will pick Nina Turner.
He mentioned a younger woman. But that's it. If you listen to her, you can see she would be able to step in, in an emergency.
She was a senator in the Ohio State legislature.
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I’m just saying if they did run together, the seats conceivably would still go to someone like them or at least from the same party.
 
Eboue said:
Buttigieg is +46 and going nowhere. I dont think it's as important as the tweet makes it seem
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It’s a very small subset of voters, but quite important one, Dems gained most of their Midwest house seats in 18 thanks to this group, and they are not especially liberal.

The Democratic base still love cops, love capitalism, like identity politics and obsessed with electability/Trump. I don’t see them storming Capitol Hill anytime soon.

Mayor Pete is going nowhere because black people don’t like him full stop.
 
Raoul said:
Polls are all over the map at the moment.
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RCP average Biden at 27, Harry Enten weighted him at 25 before this latest poll.

Other 3 at mid-teens, seems about right. What’s unquestionable is that all of Biden post-announcement gain has evaporated.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
RCP average Biden at 27, Harry Enten weighted him at 25 before this latest poll.

Other 3 at mid-teens, seems about right. What’s unquestionable is that all of Biden post-announcement gain has evaporated.
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His post announcement gain has definitely gone and been replaced by the immediate post debate sentiment, which in turn will be replaced by another round of campaigning and the CNN debates later this month, so I would expect to see a lot of movement between now and August.
 
André Dominguez said:
Several reasons:
1 - The bi-polarization of US political system: most people support political parties even if the opposition candidate brings good proposals
2 - He has a large loyal core of supporters. Add that to the huge percentage of indecisive people...
3 - The polls in the end of term are always negative. It always go up as soon as campaign starts and they will show "the good things this administration brought" and a lot of people will change their minds quite easily. The idea of "continuing the project" is appealing to humans, who are highly adverse to changes.
4 - Remember the "Bush(s) will never get reelected"? Look at how that worked out.
5 - External influence: Israel will offer full support for Trump reelection. This is worth millions of american votes.
6 - The democrat candidates need to be very very good. Sanders has expired, and the majority of the other choices are viewed as being part of the "system". Trump won last elections by being an anti-system symbol. Biden will be seen as "part of an old problem", pretty much like Hilary did.
7 - The war against illegal immigrants: doesn't matter how many people drown / die crossing the border, this brings him a lot of votes into the table.
8 - Military support: the US army strongly supports Trump.
9 - The digital army: I know that Trump probably doesn't even know how social media warfare tactics work, but he sure had hired a team that knows what they are doing, as you can check by social networks. And they also use this strategy to influence the democrat supporters whose favorite candidate lost in the primary elections and are frustrated.

I could be here all day. I can´t see a turn of events in the near future. Unless the democrats bring the Midwest back home, I guess.
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Trump's biggest hurdle is he is underwater in nearly every swing state and he won't be able to win unless he carries a majority of them.

 
Florida Man said:
Do you see the top 4 changing though? I know we’ve had one debate but I think top 4 stay at top 4. The order of that however will change though.
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I can easily see someone currently in the single digits moving up and making it a 6 person race, especially given that the first votes are an eternity away.
 
matherto said:
The only problem I see is her getting walked all over by Trump in the 'debates'. He already scored a win over her with the Pocahontas/proof of her heritage crap. I think she's too 'nice' to stand up to him.

Kamala Harris on the other hand...
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Au contraire, think the Pocahontas thing is blown over and Warren would kill Trump in the debates.

Which is not hard, mind you - getting the votes is
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
Warren is just Sanders-lite. And honestly I don't see her winning any swing states.
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I really like her, but it worries me how she’ll do in the swing states too. I don’t know how relatable people outside the Dem base are going to find her, with that east coast school marm vibe she has.
 
Raoul said:
Trump's biggest hurdle is he is underwater in nearly every swing state and he won't be able to win unless he carries a majority of them.

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Let's hope it continues like that. We'll assess the polls later when the counter-information warfare starts.
 
Paul Krugman going nuclear in the Times

Take the case of Kentucky. In 2017, the state received $40 billion more from the federal government than it paid in taxes. That’s about one-fifth of the state’s G.D.P.; if Kentucky were a country, we’d say that it was receiving foreign aid on an almost inconceivable scale.

This aid, in turn, supports a lot of jobs. It’s fair to say that far more Kentuckians work in hospitals kept afloat by Medicare and Medicaid, in retail establishments kept going by Social Security and food stamps, than in all traditional occupations like mining and even agriculture combined.

So if you really believe that Americans with higher incomes shouldn’t pay for benefits provided to those with lower incomes, you should be calling on “donor” states like New Jersey and New York to cut off places like Kentucky and let their economies collapse. And if that’s what you mean, you should let Mitch McConnell’s constituents know about it.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/01/opinion/2020-democrats-taxes.html
 
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