2018 US Elections

InfiniteBoredom said:
Popular vote- electoral college split, Florida, ballot design, recount, lacking machines, deadline, lawsuits.

If there’s a God, he sure is a very sadistic feck who enjoy putting people through this time loop.
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On the positive side these last couple of years have highlighted so many basic things inside and outside of government that need sorting out. Hopefully they now can get some of the issues fixed. Bit of decent organisation would go a long way to solving so many of their problems.

They should start by tightening up some of the Presidential powers.
 
Amarica is fecked. I've not seen a developed country with this many electoral problems.
Ignoring votes ffs!
 
The election officials in Broward county need to be fired. Its just unacceptable that these issues keep happening in that same county.
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
Which senates races are still pending official results - Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi...anywhere else?
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Mississipi is going to second round, and should be an easy Republican victory.

Arizona and Florida are the only one still pending. Republicans have already 52 seats (counting Mississipi as their seat), which means that they can reach up to 54 (my bet is that the seats will split with Democrats taking Arizona, so I think it will be a 53-47 senate).
 
Georgia's gone kind of under the radar since results came in, but worth looking at


 
Democrats could win 40 House seats, the most since Watergate

Democrats have
won at least 33 seats, but they look poised to win closer to 40 — there are 13 races that are either not called or too close to call, and Democrats have a solid chance of winning seven of those.

Why it matters: We're officially in "blue wave" territory. Even if Democrats didn't win any additional House seats, they've already won the most number of seats since Watergate, when the party picked up 48 seats in 1974.
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https://www.axios.com/democrats-201...ess-20ad294d-c608-4f70-af89-97d683757ed0.html
 
Eboue said:
All of these are invalid given the widespread suppression in Georgia. The entire government is illegitimate.
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At least some of those problems would have been addressed if only Dems wrested the Governor election. How in the hell that Kemp who was contesting the election also in charge of voter registration? Dems missed big time in bringing this up much earlier and getting that cnut off the position.
 
Is it just me or have the Dems been a bit muted on celebrating their midterm success?
 
Ubik said:
Georgia's gone kind of under the radar since results came in, but worth looking at


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Not convinced. Do you know if they have any exit polling? I'll be interested in two things - Trump approval, and main motivation to vote this time.

edit- Iowa was the opposite. Massive swings in the House races from 1/4 to 3/4, and even reichsführer Steve King had to sweat a bit. But the governor's race was relatively comfortable (3%)
This was a Trump +10 state.
 
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Fergies Gum said:
Is it just me or have the Dems been a bit muted on celebrating their midterm success?
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I agree.

The results from FL (early in the evening) affected the mood for the entire evening and the following day. Then came Trump’s press conference, the firing of Sessions and the shooting in CA. They literally had no time to enjoy the moment.

In addition, the Democrats made a big mistake by over-talking about the races in GA and TX. They made them high-profile races despite being in unfriendly territories. And when they didn’t win them, they felt disappointed and Republicans celebrated.
 
fishfingers15 said:
Maybe keeping it quiet is working for them as well. Even in special elections, during the race and after the race DNCC kept quiet.
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Ya, the Republicans' constant attack is "San Francisco Nancy Pelosi" so I think the focus on local candidates worked for the Dems.
 
fishfingers15 said:
At least some of those problems would have been addressed if only Dems wrested the Governor election. How in the hell that Kemp who was contesting the election also in charge of voter registration? Dems missed big time in bringing this up much earlier and getting that cnut off the position.
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While I agree it's quite likely the person appointed in Kemp's place would have been a partisan hack and still ran these shenanigans. This state is way beyond crooked.
 
berbatrick said:
Not convinced. Do you know if they have any exit polling? I'll be interested in two things - Trump approval, and main motivation to vote this time.

edit- Iowa was the opposite. Massive swings in the House races from 1/4 to 3/4, and even reichsführer Steve King had to sweat a bit. But the governor's race was relatively comfortable (3%)
This was a Trump +10 state.
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There’s the same take about Texas. Beto got within 3 pts so it must be in play, well it’s not in play if you can’t break through the 46/47 ceiling in a presidential year.

The Sun Belt is a long term project, especially with voter suppression still rampant in those places. They need multiple cycles to turn and consolidate, like Virginia.
 
berbatrick said:
Not convinced. Do you know if they have any exit polling? I'll be interested in two things - Trump approval, and main motivation to vote this time.

edit- Iowa was the opposite. Massive swings in the House races from 1/4 to 3/4, and even reichsführer Steve King had to sweat a bit. But the governor's race was relatively comfortable (3%)
This was a Trump +10 state.
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Here you go - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/ga

Trump approval there is 52-47, which is the same as it is in Ohio by the looks of it. Iowa for some reason doesn't have an exit poll... He's underwater in the rest of the Trump-won rust belt states. Biggest issue was healthcare (34%) over immigration (32%). White non-college is predictably scary - 17-82 went GOP compared to 26-74 in the Texas senate race and 45-55 in Ohio senate (38-60 Ohio gov).

Interestingly, the biggest change from 2016 has been white-college - it was 28-69 GOP in 2016 but 40-59 this year. One rider to that is that white non-college rose as a portion of the electorate from 30% to 38%, whilst college went from 30% down to 22%. Also, exit polls are just exit polls etc.

It's a reach for sure, but so's Ohio, and that's actively swinging against them rather than towards.
ManUtd1999 said:
I agree.

The results from FL (early in the evening) affected the mood for the entire evening and the following day. Then came Trump’s press conference, the firing of Sessions and the shooting in CA. They literally had no time to enjoy the moment.

In addition, the Democrats made a big mistake by over-talking about the races in GA and TX. They made them high-profile races despite being in unfriendly territories. And when they didn’t win them, they felt disappointed and Republicans celebrated.
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I mean maybe in terms of optics, but there were plenty of narrow House wins in those states probably only made possible by people being drawn to the polls by statewide races and voting downballot. The game was to win the House, and that's been done handily.
 
Ubik said:
Here you go - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/ga

Trump approval there is 52-47, which is the same as it is in Ohio by the looks of it. Iowa for some reason doesn't have an exit poll... He's underwater in the rest of the Trump-won rust belt states. Biggest issue was healthcare (34%) over immigration (32%). White non-college is predictably scary - 17-82 went GOP compared to 26-74 in the Texas senate race and 45-55 in Ohio senate (38-60 Ohio gov).

Interestingly, the biggest change from 2016 has been white-college - it was 28-69 GOP in 2016 but 40-59 this year. One rider to that is that white non-college rose as a portion of the electorate from 30% to 38%, whilst college went from 30% down to 22%. Also, exit polls are just exit polls etc.
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I think Sherrod Brown is a magical being who gets Ohio, I don't think it's particularly in play if he isn't on the ticket (look at the 2016 margin the state house results, and House results, and the governor - all bad).
IMO the path is Wisconsin+Penn+Michigan, and for a backup try for Fl/Ohio/Iowa/Georgia. Wiconsin had 2 wins in statewide races (governor and Tammy Baldwin), Penn had a few seat flips and an easy governors' win, Michigan had a relatively easy senate win and governor pickup. All these results are better than anything produced in the other 4 states I mentioned.
 
berbatrick said:
I think Sherrod Brown is a magical being who gets Ohio, I don't think it's particularly in play if he isn't on the ticket (look at the 2016 margin the state house results, and House results, and the governor - all bad).
IMO the path is Wisconsin+Penn+Michigan, and for a backup try for Fl/Ohio/Iowa/Georgia. Wiconsin had 2 wins in statewide races (governor and Tammy Baldwin), Penn had a few seat flips and an easy governors' win, Michigan had a relatively easy senate win and governor pickup. All these results are better than anything produced in the other 4 states I mentioned.
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I agree that's the path, without them Trump's back in again. The shock of the "blue wall" crumbling in 2016 will hopefully provoke a big response in 2020, but as Bernie says, gotta fight in every state! And it's at least believable that the likes of Arizona, Texas and Georgia are now close enough that they merit serious consideration.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
I agree.

The results from FL (early in the evening) affected the mood for the entire evening and the following day. Then came Trump’s press conference, the firing of Sessions and the shooting in CA. They literally had no time to enjoy the moment.

In addition, the Democrats made a big mistake by over-talking about the races in GA and TX. They made them high-profile races despite being in unfriendly territories. And when they didn’t win them, they felt disappointed and Republicans celebrated.
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I think they were justified in hyping up the race when you consider that Beto ended up getting 48% of the vote.
 
Red Defence said:
It’s not you. Took me 24 hrs to realise that they hadn’t lost a lot of seats.
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They should be "screaming from the rooftops" about the success.

Won control of the house
Largest Dem gain in the house since Watergate
Retaking the governorship in 7 states
Seized control in seven state legislatures
Won back control of 372 state legislative seats
 
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Ubik said:
I agree that's the path, without them Trump's back in again. The shock of the "blue wall" crumbling in 2016 will hopefully provoke a big response in 2020, but as Bernie says, gotta fight in every state! And it's at least believable that the likes of Arizona, Texas and Georgia are now close enough that they merit serious consideration.
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Arizona is definitely doable. 5-4 for Democrats on House, and it looks that they are going to get the senate.

On the other side, Republicans won all the local elections, though most of them were close.
 
Fergies Gum said:
They should be "screaming from the rooftops" about the success.

Won control of the house
Largest Dem gain in the house since Watergate
Retaking the governorship in 7 states
Seized control in seven state legislatures
Won back control of 372 state legislative seats
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And despite that the Senate was 'won' by Republicans, with the likes of @Suedesi being in joy for GOP getting 5 seats, in the end it looks that GOP is getting just 1 or 2 extra senate seats.

When you consider these things:

- 26 of the 35 seats in election being held by Democrats, 9 from Republicans.
- Democrats were holding seats in 10 states Trump won, Republicans on the other side were defending only 1 seats in states where Clinton won.

the senate result was actually favorable to Democrats. It was near impossible on winning the senate, and it was important to not lose many seats. 2020 is hard but definitely doable (Susan Collins should definitely be attacked from this moment, and the people must never be allowed to forget that she voted for Kavanaugh), especially if Trump numbers go down, 2022 is definitely on. Obviously, the senate is very biased against Democrat considering that there are small countries (who always vote Rep) which have more senators than representatives, but still could be done.

The fact that Senate is even more powerful than the House is absurd on itself. Vermont shouldn't have the same power as California, neither Wyoming should have the same power as Texas. Unfortunately the same thing is on Switzerland where Canton of Uri with its 36k population has as many senators as Zurich with 1.5 million.

Democrats should look to strip the power of senate as soon as they have the chance, similar to how UK has been gradually stripping the power of House of Lords. Obviously, Republicans can win the house too (they controlled it for the last 8 years, and not only because of gerrymandering, they actually won also the popular vote), but the senate is much more easy to be won from Republicans than from Democrats.

Also, why the electoral college makes still sense?
 
Blue wave! First sets of elections in a long time that have gone the way I wanted them to. Thanks for not fecking it up, America.
 
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The Blue Wave continues....

Two more Senate seats and Governorships and 7 more house seats that lean Democrat.

Newsflash: Sinema leads by 22,000 now.

EDIT:

Only the Trump party is trying to stop the vote count.

The party of Freedom and patriots.
 
Red Dreams said:
The Blue Wave continues....

Two more Senate seats and Governorships and 7 more house seats that lean Democrat.

Newsflash: Sinema leads by 22,000 now.

EDIT:

Only the Trump party is trying to stop the vote count.

The party of Freedom and patriots.
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Party of George Bush as well. Imagine the world today had that prick not stolen the 00 election.
 
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