Cuomo flapping even more than Loris Karius.
Lying scumbag. These are the corporatist that need to be weeded out of the Democratic party.
Yeah. sure He did not know what his corrupt buddy Percoco was doing.
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2018 US Elections
- Thread starter Red Dreams
- Start date
Cuomo flapping even more than Loris Karius.
Lying scumbag. These are the corporatist that need to be weeded out of the Democratic party.
Yeah. sure He did not know what his corrupt buddy Percoco was doing.
I watched the entire debate earlier. Nixon did fairly well for being a political neophyte but did seem to stumble a bit when Cuomo raised the issue of her being a corporation.
She was shocked that was all he could throw at her.
I know people who set themselves up as an S Corp. Absolutely nothing immoral about it.
Guy ran and won on his father's name.
This race will be interesting. And will be a lot closer than the polls suggesst.
btw I think Cruz is going to lose.
This will be the seat that flips the Senate.
This will be the seat that flips the Senate.
I was a huge Mario Cuomo fan in the 80s but sadly it seems Andrew is more of a standard retail politician compared to his Dad, who had more of an agenda dealing with what would today be considered progressive issues.
Its all going to hinge on turnout. I think Beto will do far better than people think but it will take a once in a lifetime voter turnout effort to push him over the line imo.
I suspect Cruz will just emerge as the winner but certainly trends in Texas suggest it's turning blue in the long-term. No wonder GOP are doing all they can to make it more difficult for people to vote.
Probably best to underplay Beto's chances. Will help the turnout and will also not demotivate other contests in Texas.
How gerrymandered is the district Beto and Grandpa Munster are fighting over?
I never paid much attention to the Arizona primaries but Kelli Ward sounds like one fecked up headcase.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-memory/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4d79c364a6c2
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-memory/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4d79c364a6c2
She's a complete nutjob. Its like she was genetically engineered in a petrie dish by some tea party scientist and then set free in AZ.
Real Clear Politics just moved Mr. Munsters seat to Toss Up 
all this is Fake News though.
Winning so much it hurts.
Winning so much it hurts.
they are clearly scared of Beto. Trump has to stump for Lyin Ted in Texas ! amazing
Its going to need to be in the 8-10 point range for the Dems to take the house imo.
Which is just ridiculous and shows the level of gerrymandering the Republicans are guilty of.
That's higher than 538 has ever had it, and they seem to think it's pretty likely already.
Yeah but you don't know what the turnout will be on election day so its a good idea to aim slightly higher than the conventional wisdom.
Sure, but that's the point of their model. Their "polls only" model is more like a 60-40 in favour of the Democrats. The other factors seem to favour the Dems this year more than anything else.
If only they could predict turnout.
Isn't that exactly what you were trying to do, when you claimed they needed a bigger advantage than conventional wisdom (or pundits like 538) indicates? In any case, don't (good) pollsters already try to take into account the difference between the general population and likely voters?
Yes that is what I was trying to do. I was deliberately low balling the turnout to ensure that even a moderate (not great) turnout would result in the Dems retaking the house.
For instance, the Dems managed to swing +8 in 2012 from what they managed in 2010 but only managed to pick up 8 seats. The odds are stacked against them for whatever reason (gerrymandering etc) so they have to outperform just to stay in the game.
The best example of what may happen is how the Dems fared in the 2004 house elections (where the GOP picked up 3 seats following a slight popular vote win), then how they fared in 2006 where they swung the popular vote 8 points in their favor - capitalizing on the Iraq war and general Dubya fatigue, to get 31 seats. That is what they should be aiming for this year, and since the dynamics are similar, they have a good chance of getting it.
Thought as much. Thanks for the confirm.
Christ, I hope so. What delicious irony that would be.
Sadly it will take a near perfect storm for the Dems to win the Senate. If McCaskill and Bill Nelson hold their seats then I would get excited.
I’ve got a horrible feeling that there’s going to be serious interference in this election.
If the GOP hold the senate and house by any means necessary, they’re going to shut down every investigation and get a free run at redrawing district lines in their favour with little pushback from the SC they fill with conservative judges.
They’ve already made it clear they are not going to protect election equipment from attacks. It’s all or nothing for them right now.
If the GOP hold the senate and house by any means necessary, they’re going to shut down every investigation and get a free run at redrawing district lines in their favour with little pushback from the SC they fill with conservative judges.
They’ve already made it clear they are not going to protect election equipment from attacks. It’s all or nothing for them right now.
No doubt there will be attempts although this time everyone is expecting it and will take some degree of countermeasures.
Ultimately, the Dems are going to need a good turnout to take the house and an exceptional turnout to take both houses.
It's always surprising to me how Americans have (so far) seemingly accepted the incredibly undemocratic features of the House. The Senate can be said to be undemocratic as well, but at least it was deliberately designed that way (and it makes a certain amount of sense. We also have "deliberately undemocratic" features in Norway, where the larger counties get more mandates per capita).
But the House should be... well, representative. And yet we're very likely looking at at least a 5% overall advantage to the Democrats and still it's up in the air whether or not they'll even have a majority.
I'm sure the two-party system has something to do with it.
But the House should be... well, representative. And yet we're very likely looking at at least a 5% overall advantage to the Democrats and still it's up in the air whether or not they'll even have a majority.
I'm sure the two-party system has something to do with it.
no worries. the rising hate is going to push up those numbers.
It's because conservatives want it that way to expand their own power and libs love to touch themselves and think about the founding fathers.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entr...der-hispanic-vote_us_5b86e5cfe4b0cf7b00318d1d
Beto needs to turn out the Border latino voters and he may just connect with them being from El Paso.
Beto needs to turn out the Border latino voters and he may just connect with them being from El Paso.
He'll need it all - border areas, strong turnout in big cities and a decent amount of crossovers in the rest of the rural areas. If he gets all three then he will win.
Speaking of El Cruzo, what becomes of him should he lose?
Does he end up as some kind of appointed advisor to El Trumpo?
Does he take to Fox News and ilk as much as possible?
Does he sing Latin ballads to Trump in the hopes of getting an SC appointment should one open?
Does he end up as some kind of appointed advisor to El Trumpo?
Does he take to Fox News and ilk as much as possible?
Does he sing Latin ballads to Trump in the hopes of getting an SC appointment should one open?
Deep dive on the Beto-Cruz poll numbers
Seen polling going both ways in FL, Nelson has had some recent polls having huim +10, Scott has had some +10s as well. I think Florida only is slightly leaning to Nelson which is troublesome.