That's a huge upset. Just an hour ago, Wasserman projected that Graham would win as she was ahead by a healthy margin, but Gillum has surged ahead as more votes are counted.
2018 US Elections
- Thread starter Red Dreams
- Start date
So what does that mean for Florida then, does he have a chance against a Republican?
Can he coerce the people that didn't vote for him and voted for a different Dem candidate?
Can he coerce the people that didn't vote for him and voted for a different Dem candidate?
It means the Governor's election is going to be a showdown between a Bernie candidate v a Trump candidate. Gillum has a decent shot at winning imo
Ahhh I didn't realise the Repub was a MAGA type. Cheers.
Bernie and Ocassio Cortez will bring Gillum and Nelson over the line.
It is shocking that Scott has had the political life he has attained when compared to the scandal that he created with Columbia/HCA. I benefitted from the largess that the corruption created (one of my girlfriends in college was sorority sisters with Scott's right hand man's daughter, we were able to use the corporate jets to pick us up from Tallahassee to fly us to anywhere in the Southeast for the day whenever we wanted), but later cringed when I realized the connection to the scandal. The fact that my fellow state citizens have overlooked such criminality just to make sure an 'R' stays in the Governor's mansion is nauseating. It will be massively demoralizing to see Scott attain the rank of one of my state's senators.
The very shoddy polling complicates this, but...
this might be the truest case of a Bernie bump. AOC's victory was mostly down to her tireless campaigning and organising across her (geographically small) district. Stacey Abrams was endorsed by Bernie but also by many other high-profile politicians. Randy Bryce made a name for himself with his ad against Paul Ryan, his opponent never got the recognition. Bernie might have helped with these (especially Randy) but he wasn't the important factor.
Andrew Gillum's polling before August was absolute shit - 10%. Bernie endorsed on Aug 1 and campaigned for him 2 weeks later. His polling went up to 16% during that time. The last poll, from yesterday, which RCP doesn't include, put him at 25%. The trend of votes breaking for Gillum late is apparently also seen if you compare early voting (win for Graham) to election day.
There might be something local I'm not aware of, but looking from outside it seems that he was helped by Bernie's endorsement and campaign.
About the general - I've been looking at comparing Dem and GOP primary turnout as a predictor of the winner of the general election. Vox had an article in 2016 that this is invalid but I noticed that there were a lot more GOP primary voters as compared to Dems for the 2016 prez primary in swing states- and we all know how that ended.
Anyway, in Florida this time (unlike Wisconsin), GOP primary had marginally higher turnout than Dems. So I don't think he'll win - does anyone know the last time a Democrat won a statewide race in Florida?
edit - 20 years since a Dem was governor in florida
this might be the truest case of a Bernie bump. AOC's victory was mostly down to her tireless campaigning and organising across her (geographically small) district. Stacey Abrams was endorsed by Bernie but also by many other high-profile politicians. Randy Bryce made a name for himself with his ad against Paul Ryan, his opponent never got the recognition. Bernie might have helped with these (especially Randy) but he wasn't the important factor.
Andrew Gillum's polling before August was absolute shit - 10%. Bernie endorsed on Aug 1 and campaigned for him 2 weeks later. His polling went up to 16% during that time. The last poll, from yesterday, which RCP doesn't include, put him at 25%. The trend of votes breaking for Gillum late is apparently also seen if you compare early voting (win for Graham) to election day.
There might be something local I'm not aware of, but looking from outside it seems that he was helped by Bernie's endorsement and campaign.
About the general - I've been looking at comparing Dem and GOP primary turnout as a predictor of the winner of the general election. Vox had an article in 2016 that this is invalid but I noticed that there were a lot more GOP primary voters as compared to Dems for the 2016 prez primary in swing states- and we all know how that ended.
Anyway, in Florida this time (unlike Wisconsin), GOP primary had marginally higher turnout than Dems. So I don't think he'll win - does anyone know the last time a Democrat won a statewide race in Florida?
edit - 20 years since a Dem was governor in florida
Last edited:
Dems. The GOP have repeatedly made a map that skews things their ways. While they routinely get 50-55% of the statewide vote, they usually get ~60-75% of the seats. In 2012, the Dems won a majority of the vote (51-49) and got 4 out of 13 house seats.
It's a clear case of a win due to Sanders nomination. Yes there is the poll numbers are questionable but the guy was not even in the picture for a win apparently. Probably one of the first Trump vs Bernie candidates this election?
Randy Bryce is the Dem nominee in Paul Ryan's old seat. He's inspired and endorsed by Bernie. The GOP guy was endorsed by Trump in his primary. The seat is rated R+5, but Trump won by 13 and Ryan by 30. That's the other direct one.
Both tough ones but Wisconsin is tougher. Florida should be in play if Dems have any chance
McSally v Sinema should be one hell of a battle
Also doesn't help that many voters in the US are morons.
‘The race has tightened’: Cruz allies sound alarm about Texas Senate race
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/28/texas-senate-race-club-for-growth-ted-cruz-799116
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/28/texas-senate-race-club-for-growth-ted-cruz-799116
I was genuinely shocked to see the results pop up on my phone. Couldn’t be happier as this was the guy I preferred.
He’s up against Ron DeSantis, a total MAGA nutjob. He had a commercial where he was teaching his baby daughter to build a wall. Florida may have went to Trump in 2016, but I’m confident that the backlash against him has surged. It also helps that Gillum is both a real progressive and potentially the first black Florida governor.
Ohhhh he's THAT guy. Jesus. Didn't think he actually won the Republican nomination.
Here's hoping for Gillum.
November can't come soon enough .Great result from Florida ,now we will see how a Bernie candidate v Trump candidate will do.
Its only been been a day and the dog whistling has already started.
Off to a great start..... #MAGA
Last edited:
Doesn't monkey something up mean to make it go tits up? Mess it up? I've heard that expression used.
Never heard it used in that context.
Yeah that's fecking disgraceful.
even if it does given how many other turns of phrase you could use it would seem a strange one to pick unless you wanted to imply something
Sure, but there are 100 ways to express the same thing. He went with the monkey route. He literally could have said "don't feck this up" and it would have been less controversial.
Ahh the beauty of the dog whistle, it’s super easy to claim you didn’t hear it, right?
Textbook dog whistle right there.
There are so many words he could have used in place of monkey.
There are so many words he could have used in place of monkey.
The Antifa need to add all these names to a long list.
Once the Socialist are in power we need to 'address' them.
Once the Socialist are in power we need to 'address' them.
Wtf, why did Nikhil get banned?
Mind your own fecking business
Someone's acting bigshot!I'll come back when you've cooled down.
Well, that De Santis guy is certainly leaving everything on the field. He went for it, it being "publicly being a massive racist".