2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Fivethirtyeight did a piece recently where they said that the Dems supposed electoral college advantage is overstated. It would take only a 3% shift in certain voting groups for the GOP to win the states that you mentioned above.

I'd agree with you that Sanders winning the nomination would all but mean that the GOP wins the election.

Yes, and it can't be stated enough that the Dems in the current set up, have an advantage in most of the key swing states to where someone like Cruz would need to win nearly all of them to win the Presidency - which if he faced Sanders would be a very good chance he does. Hillary on the other hand, has a great chance of winning Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Just winning Virginia would make the GOP path to 270 nearly impossible. Winning both Ohio and Virginia would cut off all plausible paths to a Republican victory, like so....

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MQlkP
 
Ahh c'mon, you of all people know she's a Wall Street shill with absolutely no honesty or integrity.

That's a stereotype advanced by her detractors who are mad she's not a left wing socialist. In reality, she's as middle of the road as it gets for establishment Dems, which is what is needed to do business with the opposition party. If she's remotely as good as Bill, the US will be in good hands.
 
That's a stereotype advanced by her detractors who are mad she's not a left wing socialist. In reality, she's as middle of the road as it gets for establishment Dems, which is what is needed to do business with the opposition party. If she's remotely as good as Bill, the US will be in good hands.

She's an entitled, power/money hungry crook who's out for what she can get. How the Clinton Foundation's status as an obvious slush fund for the Clinton family hasn't already ended her political career, I don't know. I guess that's what being a slimy, corrupt political dynasty is all about...the freedom to do just whatever the hell you want.
 
Make it 'burn gays' and they might consider voting for him.
He will make the Muslims burn the gays - as an excuse to invade any Muslim country... Then he will get the Mexicans to round up and execute the Muslims before they are forced to build a big wall along the boarder and trap themselves on the Mexican side... Then bill the Mexican government for it
Scarily enough I could see him proposing that
 
She's an entitled, power/money hungry crook who's out for what she can get. How the Clinton Foundation's status as an obvious slush fund for the Clinton family hasn't already ended her political career, I don't know. I guess that's what being a slimy, corrupt political dynasty is all about...the freedom to do just whatever the hell you want.

Nope. I have friends work for and have worked for her and they paint a distinctly different picture. Nice to see the clutching at straws of misogyny though.
 
Nope. I have friends work for and have worked for her and they paint a distinctly different picture. Nice to see the clutching at straws misoginy though.

:lol: They don't work for the Clinton Foundation do they?

If they do, it's not surprising that they don't have a bad word to say about her. It must be nice to fly around the world on private jets and to stay in luxury 5 star hotels in the name of charity. I bet their palms have been greased nicely too...after all I'm sure not even Hillary and Bill's pockets are deep enough to deal with all that illicit cash streaming in from the world's biggest despots.
 
:lol: They don't work for the Clinton Foundation do they?

If they do, it's not surprising that they don't have a bad word to say about her. It must be nice to fly around the world on private jets and to stay in luxury 5 star hotels in the name of charity. I bet their palms have been greased nicely too...after all I'm sure not even Hillary and Bill's pockets are deep enough to deal with all that illicit cash streaming in from the world's biggest despots.

Nope.
 
Raoul is correct. The prez has to be able to work with congress and foreign leaders. When you think of it like that the Clintons are the only game in town.
 
When Obama was elected the Republican leaders got together on his 1st day and decided to stall obstruct block halt his every move.
With Clinton, they haven't even waited till she's in - they've been trying to stop her since Benghazi, and may even have found something with the emails. I don't know why she has any better hope than Obama, or Sanders, of introducing progressive legislation. They hate her like they hate Obama.
 
When Obama was elected the Republican leaders got together on his 1st day and decided to stall obstruct block halt his every move.
With Clinton, they haven't even waited till she's in - they've been trying to stop her since Benghazi, and may even have found something with the emails. I don't know why she has any better hope than Obama, or Sanders, of introducing progressive legislation. They hate her like they hate Obama.

Its not her, its the Clintons in general. They have had it in for them since the beginning, because they realized how popular Bill was and knew they couldn't stop him unless they whipped up a few scandals.
 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

Nate Silver has spoken :)

Also, this little gem:
We’ve got an unpopular set of presidential candidates this year– Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in either party with a net-positive favorability rating — but Trump is the most unpopular of all. His favorability rating is 33 percent, as compared with an unfavorable rating of 58 percent, for a net rating of -25 percentage points. By comparison Hillary Clinton, whose favorability ratings are notoriously poor, has a 42 percent favorable rating against a 50 percent unfavorable rating, for a net of -8 points. Those are bad numbers, but nowhere near as bad as Trump’s.
 
I could definitely see Sanders beating Trump, but it wouldn't be a sure thing and extremely stressful leading up to the election (with Cruz even more so, as I can see ways he could win anyway). Plus I can see him mirroring Carter and losing after a term.
 
That's a stereotype advanced by her detractors who are mad she's not a left wing socialist. In reality, she's as middle of the road as it gets for establishment Dems, which is what is needed to do business with the opposition party. If she's remotely as good as Bill, the US will be in good hands.

Not really, you don't have to be a radical socialist to consider her your typical dishonest and manipulative member of the elite. The fact that she's universally disliked across the left-right spectrum tells us what you need to know about her. She's only ever considered a sweetheart of wall street, the political elite and whatever institutions that want to keep the gravy train rolling. Just look at her list of donors compared to Sanders ffs.
 
Politicians are sociopaths by nature. It's pointless to scrutinize their personal dealings, what matters is the public record.

It's quite similar to footballers, actually. Think of Giggs, for example.
 
Worth posting again I think (apologies for the size):

koeze-demdebate-ideology-liveblog-1114.png

And her approval ratings among the left:
CZCc2j8WMAAXtHt.png

CZCbG2cWYAMxGnh.png

Not exactly persona non grata.
 
Worth posting again I think (apologies for the size):

koeze-demdebate-ideology-liveblog-1114.png

And her approval ratings among the left:
CZCc2j8WMAAXtHt.png

CZCbG2cWYAMxGnh.png

Not exactly persona non grata.


It's her approval ratings amongst independents that's the problem. She's accepted by most of the base (which is why an argument against Sanders on the previous page was that he will not be able to generate enough turnout among African Americans in the general election)
 
Not really, you don't have to be a radical socialist to consider her your typical dishonest and manipulative member of the elite. The fact that she's universally disliked across the left-right spectrum tells us what you need to know about her. She's only ever considered a sweetheart of wall street, the political elite and whatever institutions that want to keep the gravy train rolling. Just look at her list of donors compared to Sanders ffs.

That won't matter in the end. What does matter is that she has establishment credentials, which is rather important in terms of getting things done in Washington. If she wins, she'll do well especially with Bill contributing to her calculus.
 
"He cannot win"
" The financial markets will crumble"

None of this is true. Sanders does not want the 'same ol. same ol.' That is what he is fighting against...and so are his supporters.

He wants power in the hands of ordinary people not a few billionaires. This is the richest country on earth. Yet there is so much poverty. Everyone who wants a job can have it and everyone should be able to get a living wage. Health care is not a priviledge. It is a fundamental right. All this can be paid for Now.

I am disapointed in Obama. But perhaps I should not be. He was brought up by conservative people from Kansas. I will always remember what he said in St. Paul when he had sufficient delegates to win the nomination. "My grandmother poured all of herself into me and made me the man I am" He is a decent man who does not know how to hurt and destroy. He always wants to believe in the people he works with. Sanders is a 'revolutionary'. He will be tougher.

Hillary will make a good President. But why should we 'settle'. We need to believe in ourselves and not surrender hope.
 
I must respectfully disagree with you, I feel that Bernie Sanders is the best candidate I have ever seen in a very very long time. I feel that all politicians are full of shit except for Bernie and Elizabeth Warren. The good people of the USA have a great option, they just have to push for it and choose it.

As for the GOP, perhaps Kasich is a decent candidate, but there is no way he can make it through the crazy Repub primaries.
Bernie for 8 years followed by Warren! :eek:
My concern with both is gridlock. If it's bad now what will it be like with them?
 
"He cannot win"
" The financial markets will crumble"

None of this is true. Sanders does not want the 'same ol. same ol.' That is what he is fighting against...and so are his supporters.

He wants power in the hands of ordinary people not a few billionaires. This is the richest country on earth. Yet there is so much poverty. Everyone who wants a job can have it and everyone should be able to get a living wage. Health care is not a priviledge. It is a fundamental right. All this can be paid for Now.

I am disapointed in Obama. But perhaps I should not be. He was brought up by conservative people from Kansas. I will always remember what he said in St. Paul when he had sufficient delegates to win the nomination. "My grandmother poured all of herself into me and made me the man I am" He is a decent man who does not know how to hurt and destroy. He always wants to believe in the people he works with. Sanders is a 'revolutionary'. He will be tougher.

Hillary will make a good President. But why should we 'settle'. We need to believe in ourselves and not surrender hope.

He can't win and the financial markets will destabilize at a time when the global economy is going into recession. Hardly the best time for a Robin Hood, class warfare socialist to take the reigns. And that's not factoring in the intense gridlock that would take place. He would literally spend his entire Presidency vetoing every bill to come from the GOP controlled House and Senate.
 
Neither Bernie nor Warren are black so I suspect the gridlock wouldn't be as bad.

Neither of them are a centrist like the current black man, so the gridlock will be worse.

There's undoubtedly racism in the GOP's hostility to Obama, but the real reason for their fervor against him is that his success represents an existential threat to their party.
 
Still hoping that Cruz will win the Republican nomination, I despise Trump. Not really the ideal president but better than either of Hillary or Sanders for me.

May I ask why do you feel that Ted Cruz is a viable candidate for the presidency?
 
May I ask why do you feel that Ted Cruz is a viable candidate for the presidency?
I'd ideally like a Republican president who's pro-market and for smaller government, but isn't an idiot/bigot on social issues. Failing that, I'll settle for a Republican who talks all the religious rhetoric but doesn't actually walk the walk. As far as I can tell, Cruz wants gay marriage and marijuana to be state issues which is fine by me. A marriage in one state has to be recognized by all others, so while that's not ideal, I think it's the best political solution for now.

On immigration, I don't think any of the border patrolling nonsense will ever get serious legislation since its simply impossible on a practical scale, and he's for expanding legal immigration. Abortion I don't have strong views on one way or the other.

He's the lesser of the viable evils, coming from my perspective.
 
I'd ideally like a Republican president who's pro-market and for smaller government, but isn't an idiot/bigot on social issues. Failing that, I'll settle for a Republican who talks all the religious rhetoric but doesn't actually walk the walk. As far as I can tell, Cruz wants gay marriage and marijuana to be state issues which is fine by me. A marriage in one state has to be recognized by all others, so while that's not ideal, I think it's the best political solution for now.

On immigration, I don't think any of the border patrolling nonsense will ever get serious legislation since its simply impossible on a practical scale, and he's for expanding legal immigration. Abortion I don't have strong views on one way or the other.

He's the lesser of the viable evils, coming from my perspective.

Cruz would be socially regressive, as in, his views on abortion, gay rights, immigration, and a host of other topics are contrary to the direction the country is drifting in, which would cause all sorts of social upheaval since he would almost certainly appoint one or two Scalia type justices to the Supreme Court. I actually have a lot more confidence in Trump's capacity to govern than anyone else on the GOP side. As he often brags, he knows how to get deals done which is critical to breaking the endless cycle of gridlock governance.
 
He can't win and the financial markets will destabilize at a time when the global economy is going into recession. Hardly the best time for a Robin Hood, class warfare socialist to take the reigns. And that's not factoring in the intense gridlock that would take place. He would literally spend his entire Presidency vetoing every bill to come from the GOP controlled House and Senate.

The Dems will take the Senate in 2016
 
I'd ideally like a Republican president who's pro-market and for smaller government, but isn't an idiot/bigot on social issues. Failing that, I'll settle for a Republican who talks all the religious rhetoric but doesn't actually walk the walk. As far as I can tell, Cruz wants gay marriage and marijuana to be state issues which is fine by me. A marriage in one state has to be recognized by all others, so while that's not ideal, I think it's the best political solution for now.

On immigration, I don't think any of the border patrolling nonsense will ever get serious legislation since its simply impossible on a practical scale, and he's for expanding legal immigration. Abortion I don't have strong views on one way or the other.

He's the lesser of the viable evils, coming from my perspective.


Ted Cruz may be the most hated man in US Politics, apart from Trump, how would he ever get anything done if elected?

Does it bother you that he shut down the government, costing the taxpayers billions for no real reason, or that he is in favour of building the wall on the border of Mexico while opposing the dream act? Lets not even get into this stance on climate change, the violence against women act or marriage equality. He is playing to a specific base in the GOP and could never be elected nationally. I actually think Trump would have a better chance in a national election.
 
The Dems will take the Senate in 2016

They may or may not - the point is extreme candidates on the left or right aren't likely to get anything accomplished in a bifurcated government. The Dems are definitely not taking back the house anytime soon, so having Sanders in the White House trying to give people free health care, education etc would be a pointless exercise since the other side would simply set themselves up to thwart any policies he attempts. This is precisely why the Dems or GOP need to come up with an establishment candidate who can actually work across the aisle.
 
Cruz would be socially regressive, as in, his views on abortion, gay rights, immigration, and a host of other topics are contrary to the direction the country is drifting in, which would cause all sorts of social upheaval since he would almost certainly appoint one or two Scalia type justices to the Supreme Court. I actually have a lot more confidence in Trump's capacity to govern than anyone else on the GOP side. As he often brags, he knows how to get deals done which is critical to breaking the endless cycle of gridlock governance.


I agree, Trump talks alot of shit but my gut tells me if he is actually in office it wouldnt be as bad as a Bush (double) term. Kasich would be pretty good as well.
The rest of the GOP field is complete horseshit.
 
I agree, Trump talks alot of shit but my gut tells me if he is actually in office it wouldnt be as bad as a Bush (double) term. Kasich would be pretty good as well.
The rest of the GOP field is complete horseshit.

Yes, I think he would do ok, or possibly very well since he is actually a liberal masquerading as a right wing Republican. I'm willing to bet if he wins the nomination, he will go quite moderate in the general election.
 
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