2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Trump's guest is a woman whose son was killed in Benghazi and calls Hilary a murderer and wants to put her in prison. Charming.

He's always a class act.
I'll give the lady a pass. If she believes what she believes I'd hate Clinton too. If she feels that her son was left for dead then let her have her say. However he was in a very volatile situation. You can't go into a war without the thought you might die. God rest his soul and I might be way off on this
 
KellyAnne Conway is a fruit loop. She's lost the plot completely. It's like Alice in Wonderland and she's drank the kool aid but now she's coming round and she realises she's in a nightmare and completely fecked. She's now hedging her bets and trying her best to come out of this with whatever credibility she can and without destroying her reputation any further. She also looks like shit, and I mean real shit. She looks extremely ill, very, very gaunt, her eyes are hollow and sunken with YUUGE bags around and underneath them and she just looks physically exhausted whenever you see her on TV now. She's also exceedingly short tempered. Long gone is the bright eyed head of the campaign who was willing to debate any question and answered everything with a quip and a smile. Yet another Drumpf campaign manager resigned to the scrap heap.
 
Rubio taking the high road on wikileaks. Hell frozen over?

Very impressed with Rubio. I think one of the Wikileaks emails suggested the Hillary campaign feared him the most, and understandably so. He's an intelligent, politically savvy guy. If the GOP are no longer run by the Bannon/Tea Party insane clown posse in 2019, I'd imagine Marco will be the leading candidate for Pres.
 
I'd forgotten about him oddly enough but it makes sense it will be Rubio 2020. I hope to god it is him or Ryan over Cruz. Who will be the first candidate in the next cycle to talk about vision?
 
Yep. Rubio is the one who I think would have ran Clinton closest. Maybe Cruz, but he's too easily hated.

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails//fileid/1120/251

That's the leak which outlines Carson, Trump and Cruz as the preferred candidates.


There are two ways to approach the strategies mentioned above. The first is to use the field as a whole to inflict damage on itself similar to what happened to Mitt Romney in 2012. The variety of candidates is a positive here, and many of the lesser known can serve as a cudgel to move the more established candidates further to the right. In this scenario, we don’t want to marginalize the candidates, but make them more ‘Pied Piper’ candidates who actually represent the mainstream Republican Party. Pied Piper candidates include, but aren’t limited to:

  • Ted Cruz
  • Donald Trump
  • Ben Carson
 
Giuliani is the one I hope comes out of it most damaged. Maybe Christie too; but Giuliani is the worst. I've never seen someone do so little and claim so much (seems to have used 9/11 to make himself out as some kind of hero).
 
Trump tweet about he's ahead imminent.


I have no idea about this stuff. Is this a reputable poll or not? I've been taken in by polling data before. Is this meaningful or not? (slightly worried)
 
I have no idea about this stuff. Is this a reputable poll or not? I've been taken in by polling data before. Is this meaningful or not? (slightly worried)

Its clearly an outlier. Look at the others released in the past 48 hours.

CVOTER - Hillary +5
PRRI = Hillary +15
Rasmussen = Tie
SurveyUSA - Hillary +10
Selzer and Company - Hillary +9
FoxNews - Hillary +6
IPSOS - Hillary +5

The RCP Average is Hillary +6.2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
 
Stein at 6% is laughable. She probably won't break 1%.
I've seen her at 3-4% in other polls, so 6% is high but doesn't seem outlandish. On the other hand if one poll shows Clinton up 15% with a 3-4% uncertainty and another shows Trump up by 1% with a 3-4% uncertainty that is not a statistical anomaly, someone is just out and out wrong.
 
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IBD/TIPP was the most accurate pollster I hear. What the hell is going on ?
It releases a poll everyday, so let's see what tomorrow brings
 
I've seen her at 3-4% in other polls, so 6% is high but doesn't seem outlandish. On the other hand if one poll shows Clinton up 15% with a 3-4% uncertainty and another shows Trump up by 1% with a 3-4% uncertainty that is not a statistical anomaly, someone is just out and out wrong.
The green and libertarian tickets usually get less than 1% of the vote. Maybe this election will be an massive outlier, but I think both tickets have outpolled where they will ultimately land in 3 weeks time. I suspect too many people will shit themselves when they see Trump name on the ballot and give Hilary their vote.
 
IBD/TIPP was the most accurate pollster I hear. What the hell is going on ?
It releases a poll everyday, so let's see what tomorrow brings
That's what I read too, hence slightly worried.
 
Fox actually seems to have one of the more reliable polls this year, and a lot of conservative analysts have been saying that it's all done and dusted barring some incredible act of god.
 
She also said: "I think Donald Trump’s point is a larger one, ... She has so many advantages, .... “She has endless money, she has a lot of the media. She has a very popular president and first lady out there campaigning for her."

So now her claim is that "rigged" means that the Democrats are simply better at campaigning and are more popular. Well, and I hate to tell her, this is simply what electoral politics are all about.

Plus that is not what Don is saying in the slightest. He's asking people to sign up on his site to be poll watchers like!
 
Fox actually seems to have one of the more reliable polls this year, and a lot of conservative analysts have been saying that it's all done and dusted barring some incredible act of god.

Fox is a good pollster. forget the media side. It's rated A by 538.
 
The green and libertarian tickets usually get less than 1% of the vote. Maybe this election will be an massive outlier, but I think both tickets have outpolled where they will ultimately land in 3 weeks time. I suspect too many people will shit themselves when they see Trump name on the ballot and give Hilary their vote.
The difference is that this year the level of dislike for both major candidates is so high I can easily see them (Lib + Green) totaling 10-15% of the vote.
 
Fox is a good pollster. forget the media side. It's rated A by 538.
Fair point. Monmouth is the highest rated by them, and they currently have Clinton +12 nationally.

I think that's definitely an outlier, though.
 


:lol:

Scottie is an arsehole. I can't stand the silly bitch, but she is quite funny. "Just because Trump said something doesn't mean he did it" Which is actually very true because he's completely full of shit, however saying he goes backstage at the beauty competitions is probably one of his statements you could actually take to the bank.
 
WOW! Massive news if true.

@Raoul I know this one will tickle you :)

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/10/roger-ailes-donald-trump-no-longer-speak?mbid=social_twitter

It's like Ren falling out with Stimpy or Satan falling out with Saddam or................ whatever, it's hilarious if true.

Hehe....I'd imagine it probably had something to do with Ailes advising Trump on what to do and Trump tellling him he would rather wing it the rest of the way. I'd also guess that Ailes is no fan of Bannon's tactics.
 
“Ailes’s camp said Ailes learned that Trump couldn’t focus—surprise, surprise—and that advising him was a waste of time,” Sherman said. “These debate prep sessions weren’t going anywhere.”

On the Trump side, Ellison said the story is different: “Even for the second debate, Ailes kept going off on tangents and talking about his war stories while he was supposed to be prepping Trump.”
I know which one I believe.
 
@Red Viking

I agree with you completely on 3/4 points, but not on China.

Recent Chinese history is one mainly of internal conflict. The wars with Japan were as a result of Japanese imperialist expansionist policy. Japan were the aggressors (twice). Also, the US will be present in the region for a long time, but it has little to do with keeping peace, and everything to do with expanding power. It also becomes problematic when the Japanese population overwhelmingly want the US to withdraw its bases on Japanese soil, yet the US refuses. Also, The DPRK really aren't a threat at all. They haven't got the capacity to threaten either the US or China (although, in any doomsday scenario, they are definitely more of a threat to China).

Also, slightly disagree on Russia. They did annex land, but you can't see that in a vacuum. It was against international law, but then again, if those standards are applied, a lot of Western countries don't look so good. Also, NATO is obsolete, or should be. Its presence is an irritant, not a panacea.

It depends on how you see China as the country at least historically. The current country have been full of many kingdoms with warlords with some similar cultural identity before it was united again. The unification of the current China territory i would say originated as an international conflict and the making of it was brutal ( it really is just semantics but both ways of looking at it can be justified ). Yes the Japanese were the aggressors but it is still an international conflict even though they were the victim here. The peace is crucial to the American power in this region though as that is the foundation of the economic and political development that benefits the Americans greatly. It cost a lot of money to keep the American military power in the region and the added trade with South Korea and Japan help pay for the military bases there. If the region was at full blown war the operational costs would be sky high and problematic long term. So in my opinion keeping the peace is crucial in keeping the influence ( power ) there.

The Japanese people are tired of dealing with drunken American soldiers and the social problems that have risen like rape cases (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/09/sexual-assaults-us-military-japan-prison-unlikely ) and this have caused big problems between them in recent times. I don´t think the Japanese government wants the bases gone though until they have sufficient military capability on their own. They have to react to these cases with harsh words in public though as they want to be re-elected to public office again.

DPRK are not an direct threat to America currently, but they are to the South Koreans and by that connection an serious threat to American interests in the region. The Chinese don´t want an war either as they would end up with millions of refugees and this would be costly and problematic for them.

International law really is murky waters as they get bend and broken by all the big players including U.S.A. They are only worth a lot if all played by them especially U.S.A to give them legitimacy, when U.S.A breaks them so carelessly they devalue the rules greatly. The Annexing of land can´t be allowed no matter what though as that is legitimating military conquest and this need to be dealt with so no other country gets the same funny ideas. We are going to disagree greatly on NATO as the aggression from the current Russia government validates its existence. There is no excuse for Russia annexing land and every country along the Russian boarder most decide for them selves if they want to join NATO or not. It is not op to Russia to decide such things on behalf of sovereign states. You could argue that if Russia treated its neighbours better then these countries would not bother to seek protection with NATO membership.
 
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Hehe....I'd imagine it probably had something to do with Ailes advising Trump on what to do and Trump tellling him he would rather wing it the rest of the way. I'd also guess that Ailes is no fan of Bannon's tactics.


I think that sounds spot on. I also think the old saying "Too many cooks" is especially applicable to this scenario. I can't see Aisles, Bannon or Trump listening to much anyone says. Everyone thinking they know best, and everyone thinking they are in charge and the most important person in the room. A recipe for disaster for sure.

I know which one I believe.

Yeah, I thought exactly the same when I read it.
 
@Red Viking another very good post (I won't quote it because of its length).

I think we mostly agree, except on the issue of NATO which becomes a chicken/egg scenario depending on viewpoint, really.

International law really is murky waters as they get bend and broken by all the big players including U.S.A. They are only worth a lot if all played by them especially U.S.A to give them legitimacy, when U.S.A breaks them so carelessly they devalue the rules greatly.

This is very true. The only thing I'd say is that any country (considered a military power) would respond almost identically to the Russians if faced with an encroachment upon their traditional sphere of influence. There was an agreement with NATO made in the 80s that they would not advance toward traditionally Russian controlled spheres. NATO has sought to break that agreement at every turn since. As Stockham notes:

It began as a pledge by the first Bush Administration to Gorbachev that in return for German unification and liberation of the "captive nations" there would be "not an inch" of NATO expansion. It ended up its opposite, and for no plausible reason of American security whatsoever. In fact, NATO went on to draft nearly the entire former "Warsaw Pact", expanding its membership by 12 nations. So doing, it encroached thousands of kilometers from its old Cold War boundaries to the very doorstep of Russia.

So, whilst I agree that Russian annexation can't be given a free hand, it does have to be seen in a wider context -- one that can't simply exculpate NATO's involvement. Sure, countries can decide to join NATO, but NATO should never have sought to expand to the East, and should have simply made known that those applications would be ignored. In all honesty, NATO hasn't had any legitimacy since the Cold War. We'll likely disagree on this, but I can at least understand your viewpoint (it's a relatively common one, after all).
 
Who is the McMullin guy?
I am a noob so please bear. How can a person who isn't running nationally run for one state alone?

Edit: I've looked him up.

He's a Republican protest candidate who entered the race so normal Republicans could vote for someone they could bear, without the future political baggage of having voted for Trump. He is a mormon, so his numbers in Utah aren't entirely surprising, although not too many people thought he would win the state.
 
He's a Republican protest candidate who entered the race so normal Republicans could vote for someone they could bear, without the future political baggage of having voted for Trump. He is a mormon, so his numbers in Utah aren't entirely surprising, although not too many people thought he would win the state.
Where do you rate the chances of an electoral college deadlock and the House getting to pick the next POTUS?
 
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