think the assumption is the Latino vote turning out in force against Trump.
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Jamie (@Vault Dweller) are here to talk about United's dreadful home defeat at the hands of Big Ange's Tottenham Hotspur. Should this have been the end of Ten Hag? How long does he actually have left? And does Nik finally want ETH out?!
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think the assumption is the Latino vote turning out in force against Trump.
Hillary will not engender as high a turn out as Obama did imo, which will undercut the perceived Dem landslide. Also, if Trump wins the nomination, he will quickly do a U-turn on his aggressive policies to unlock some of the independent voters.
They had a Dem governor for 6 years and have a growing hispanic population. If Hillary plays her cards right she will compete for Arizona as well as places like North Carolina and Indiana.
playing devil's advocate. what about voters turning out to vote against Trump?
His greatest support is white non-college, you can switch all the other groups around but I think it would be unrealistic to reduce Trump's proportion from them.
There will certainly be a good number of Latino voters doing that. However, i think Trump's controversial comments over the past 6 months are aimed mainly at the right wing base of the GOP in order to strictly win the primaries and nomination. Once he wins it, I'm fairly certain he will reverse course and start with a more pragmatic platform to gain non GOP base voters.
Pivot to the centre is pretty much undoable with Trump, he's doubled down too often. Hillary could struggle on turnout particularly if it looks a done deal beforehand, but I think that's even more likely to depress GOP turnout except with the hardcore base, whereas Hillary could use his hateability to get people to the polls.
Anyway, I reckon going on the numbers alone, it's plausible. I struggle to believe even that many people would vote for Trump in a GE to be honest.
agree Ubik. Also lets not discount the growing Muslim vote. They will never forget or forgive what he said.
Among the GOP base I'd agree, but I can't imagine there'd be many of them that would go from an Obama 2012 voter to a Trump 2016 voter, whereas I could certainly imagine a fair few that went Romney in 2012 not wanting to get behind Trump. I tried halving the change to 3% though and compensated with 3% extra college voters for the Dems and it was back up to 448. It's a fairly blunt estimate but it does show this wouldn't take huge unreasonable switches.
Yup and let's also not forget that other group he tends to alienate - women, who make up most of the electorate.
All that said, probably academic posturing as I still can't imagine him getting the nomination, it'll probably be Rubio and far too close for comfort.
This Cruz fellow is really a slimy guy...trying to sneak in under all the Trump hoop la.
Cruz is doing very well - cloaking his nutty right wing views and coming across as a normal GOP kinda guy, while simultaneously avoiding criticizing Trump. Mind you, if Cruz gets too close to Trump in the polls, Donald will hit him hard.
I don't remember for sure but I think Cruz has high unfavourables, and a lot of people saying "will never vote for" him too (not as bad as Trump though).
IMO Rubio remains their best shot. But Cruz becoming president would scare me the most. Trump is unrealistic, and also, he may not cut science budgets, but I'm sure Cruz will, and Rubio probably will too. Right now I have funding but I fear what will happen if they get in (and I have to hunt for profs with funding since mine ends in 2017). On the other hand, I look middle-eastern enough, so that's a reason to not want Trump...
Trump said directly that he wont hit Cruz unless he hits him (Trump) first. His words were...."They all have to come through me". The arrogance of the man
The bigot was called out by almost 1/3rd of the Israeli Parliament with regards to an upcoming visit and this is his response
So, you went to 'Merica for PhD? How it is going on?
Agree that Rubio - and to a degree Cruz - are Republicans best shot to win the election. And I think that Trump won't win GOP nomination, but then I would have bet everything I have that he wouldn't have been leading in December.
Trump looks like the villains from comics, but both Rubio/Cruz seem quite dangerous while also having a chance of beating Hilary.
don't worry lads. A Republican numbnut is not going to become President.
Danny Dyer is on it, we can all relax.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/early_primary_state_polls.html
The State polls are interesting. Now the Republican media are saying Trump supporters will not turn up for caucuses
The State polls are interesting. Now the Republican media are saying Trump supporters will not turn up for caucuses
Trump and Cruz with over 50%. This is going to be fun.
How can the republicans not have a normal candidate.
How can the republicans not have a normal candidate.
Their 'normal' candidate was supposed to be Jeb Bush. Now even Rubio is fading. This is going to be hilarious.
The republican party and Fox News championed the tea party movement that got them huge wins in Congress. But it has hurt the republican party in the long run. They are at the point of taking over the party and it'll be very difficult for the republicans to win a general election with a candidate from that wing of the party.
The fact that Jeb "prove you're a Christian" Bush is what counts as normal, says a lot about the GOP.
I think that his bro' getting re-elected says a lot for GOP and America.
Tbf he was the incumbent running against an extremely inept nominee. His poll numbers weren't too bad until late 05 iirc.
The Obama presidency sure brought a lot of the ugliness to the surface though.
All the Republican candidates have said some untasteful things about Muslims. Hillary has run an add about this. They are all guilty.
Haven't seen any media coverage on the Democrats recently.
Yeap, that's why I don't think Biden staying out was good. A three way run would attract media coverage and sharpen Hillary further for the GE. Now it's Trump and his lesser doppelgänger 24:7.
hope the attempt to limit the number of Democratic debates does not backfire.
Probably because it seems like an almost certain victory for Clinton. Trump really is grabbing all the headlines. You'd imagine it'll backfire on him at some point...hopefully, but if his recent comments aren't causing a downturn then it is quite concerning.
Not to mention his response of, "stuff happens", to one of the shootings.
don't forget the 'thoughts and prayers' bit.
Think we are past the point where he takes himself down.
I reckon the establishment guys will take him down with a deluge of negative ads in January as we get close to Iowa and New Hampshire.
Not a presidential issue...but WTF is wrong with Scalia?
I know conservative groups have come up with some discredited 'studies' regarding this issue...but Scalia really has stopped pretending. He has never been afraid to speak his mind, but lately...wow.
I know conservative groups have come up with some discredited 'studies' regarding this issue...but Scalia really has stopped pretending. He has never been afraid to speak his mind, but lately...wow.
Christ alive, that must be the first time she's ever been referred to as respected!!
She'll love all the new followers she'll gain within the next 24 hours.
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