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2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Jamie (@Vault Dweller) are here to talk about United's dreadful home defeat at the hands of Big Ange's Tottenham Hotspur. Should this have been the end of Ten Hag? How long does he actually have left? And does Nik finally want ETH out?!
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Genuinely think Trump may have been doing the same.
What a concept!
Trump is a real-life Greg Stillson....or is that Ted Cruz? I can't decide.
Spend years defending their first and second amendment, Trump proposes something that violates the first amendment, rapturous applause. 'Murica.
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However it turns out, lunatics still running the asylum
http://i100.independent.co.uk/artic...-muslim-ban-so-what-theyre-muslim--ZkjeXortcg
Unsurprisingly Katrina Pierson is also a Texan Tea Party activist.
Unsurprisingly Katrina Pierson is also a Texan Tea Party activist.
San Bernadino has shocked a lot of people. Trump is playing those fears.
The fact that people who work with you 'may' be a terrorist has shook a lot of people.
The authorities do need to look at the various loopholes that allowed this to happen including gun control and Visa regulations. But when things like this happens, fear mongers have their moment.
It is relevent thought that the very candidates in the GOP who condemn Trump are not too far away from his ideas.
The fact that people who work with you 'may' be a terrorist has shook a lot of people.
The authorities do need to look at the various loopholes that allowed this to happen including gun control and Visa regulations. But when things like this happens, fear mongers have their moment.
It is relevent thought that the very candidates in the GOP who condemn Trump are not too far away from his ideas.
If Trump survives this one, which I think he will, the GOP primary is settled. Trump Clinton still I think.
way too premature. Lets wait for the first 2-3 primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. That is the point where things will clear up. At the moment polls are terribly unreliable.
Previous front runners had gotcha moments at this stage and they dropped off as a result. For example, Perry's oops moment. Trump has had 20 or so moments and continues to climb. He really couldn't say anything worse at this point. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Trump (R) Clinton (D) and Bush (I). Bush has too much money in the bank to give up. Where does all that money go if he does drop out? Same for the super pac money.
I don't think anything is settled atleast until New Hampshire even Christie or Kasich still have a chance. People like Huckabee have won Iowa in the past and come nowhere close to the nomination.
This is a pretty good article running down the scenarios from a stats blog I love:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-ted-cruz-wins-iowa/
Bush won't run as an independent either. His main support is the mainstream Republican vote and sooner than later the party has to rally around someone and its not going to be Trump, Cruz or Carson. He can't survive it as an independent.
I don't see him winning as an independent either. Doesn't stop him running though.
It does because that's effectively cutting ties with the Republican party. Trump can afford to do it and probably will but Bush can't unless he's giving up politics for good. Even then his dad might smack him upside the head and tell him to think straight.
Don't think either of those have a hope in hell. And Huckabee wasn't really ever leading overall and certainly wouldn't have a chance in New Hampshire, where Trump's still got a big lead. I know 538 are pretty sceptical on Trump's chances and I'll listen to them over any other commentators, but it's also possible that Trump is a candidate quite unlike anything else from past years, making it hard to draw trends.
That is not my point. I agree that it is very unlikely that he just “implodes”. At the same time current polls are terribly unreliable. They are meaningful, when they determine one clear cut front runner (e.g. Hillary), but in a huge field where even the front runner has a lot less than 50%, they don´t tell you a whole lot (at this stage of the primaries). They´ll get a lot more reliable in February, when the first primaries are done. Just look at the past: Last year at the same time Cain was the front runner for the Iowa caucus and he got slaughtered in the end.
The most likely scenario is still, that 2-3 alternatives (e.g. Rubio, Cruz) establish themselves after the first few caucuses and the party will rally behind them. Trump is certainly in the mix, but he isn´t inevitable at all. At the moment he dominates the field but that will be a lot harder, when there are only few alternatives left. The one thing that would hurt the GOP and would boost Trumps chances would be, if none of the other candidates are willing to drop out at the end of February. Many of them could have the incentive to run as long as possible to strengthen their claim for a potencial VP nomination. At the same time being loyal to the party could be more important.
Tl, dr: Trump has a long way to go.
Ps: Bush might try to revitalize his campaign one more time, but it will only help if he is able to change his public appearance. All the money in the world make a difference, if you look so disinterested and unenthusiastic.
That was my point exactly. Cain had a gotcha moment and that is why he dropped.
I hope trump becomes the president just to see how he fecks it all up.
Please no. Let's not even contemplate doomsday stuff!
If he becomes president I'll be stuck in Syria for the rest of my life!
Texas is about as safe a Republican state as California/New York is Democratic.
That would be my prediction of a Trump vs Hillary election.
hell would freeze before Texas and South Carolina go blue.
McCain won it by 12 points in 2008, when Obama won Cali and NY by ~25. South Carolina = 8 points. If I was saying Idaho or Utah, you'd be more in the ballpark.
Better get in before the election then or convert to christianity and then reconvert once you've reached
Isn't Texas scheduled to be a blue state soon due to immigration?
It's moving that way, and a switch in white voters that would usually go GOP but couldn't stand Trump would put it in play.
Not if trump wins...
Come to the UK! It's better.
good point!
Here are the demographic projections if the Great Wall of Trump (@redcafe_photoshoppers) is not built:
Yeah like the UK is easier to get to.
Maybe if you Americans had hired a plane to go over his rally, he wouldnt be leading right now. Sort your life out peeps!
A Middle Eastern leader Rand Trump to tell him that his travel ban is an excellent idea... Never knew Baghdadi had a direct line to Trump.
That would be my prediction of a Trump vs Hillary election.
It would be a bit closer....probably a bit more like this.
Cruz could be the sleeper nominee for them.
I would agree with Raoul's numbers.
It's really not that much of a stretch, check out this on 538 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
I moved white (college) to 50/50 from 56%GOP, white (non-college) to 56%GOP from 62% GOP, hispanic to 80%DEM from 71%DEM, asian to 73%DEM from 67%DEM. Got to 451. There's decent arguments to be made that Trump would have aliened/put off/disgusted that number in each demographic to make it viable. In fact perhaps the most optimistic thing about it would be Hillary getting the same turnout and support that Obama got with african-americans. But inheriting his ground game and campaign staff like Jim Messina, it's also certainly within reason.
Maybe I just have too much faith in americans.
Can't see Arizona going Blue.
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