Ah feck.
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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I really wanted to go surfing but now I´ll fly to my secret fallout shelter near Cho Ming to get ready. It is probably warranted to add another layer of protection just to err on the side of caution. I keep some space free for the red-café server.
Wish I didn't open this tread.
There are still a lot of variables that could change any of this.
- Early voting is taking place which will favor Hillary (Dems have been mailed more early voting ballots than Republicans)
- Florida is a complete toss up. Trump has to win it in order to make his current momentum add up to a win. If she wins it, it will be a massive set back for him and completely invert the odds, which of course wont matter since we wont find out until election night. Basically FL is a must win for Trump otherwise he may lose.
- North Carolina is also more or less a complete toss up and may drift towards Hillary due to the racial tension, bathroom law issue, as well as early voting (where again) Dems have been mailed more ballots than Republicans.
- Polls in heavy Latino states (NV, AZ, TX, CO, and FL) are generally underweighted towards hispanic participation, often because of the language barrier.
- The likes of Johnson and Stein will fade later in the race when a portion of their current supporters realize their votes may wind up electing Trump.
- Obama has blocked out the entire month of October to campaign, and his popularity is at an all time high. Michelle Obama, Liz Warren, Bernie Sanders et al will also be out in full force.
- Then there are 3 full debates and a VP debate that could also move the polls.
Sit back and enjoy the ride.
- Early voting is taking place which will favor Hillary (Dems have been mailed more early voting ballots than Republicans)
- Florida is a complete toss up. Trump has to win it in order to make his current momentum add up to a win. If she wins it, it will be a massive set back for him and completely invert the odds, which of course wont matter since we wont find out until election night. Basically FL is a must win for Trump otherwise he may lose.
- North Carolina is also more or less a complete toss up and may drift towards Hillary due to the racial tension, bathroom law issue, as well as early voting (where again) Dems have been mailed more ballots than Republicans.
- Polls in heavy Latino states (NV, AZ, TX, CO, and FL) are generally underweighted towards hispanic participation, often because of the language barrier.
- The likes of Johnson and Stein will fade later in the race when a portion of their current supporters realize their votes may wind up electing Trump.
- Obama has blocked out the entire month of October to campaign, and his popularity is at an all time high. Michelle Obama, Liz Warren, Bernie Sanders et al will also be out in full force.
- Then there are 3 full debates and a VP debate that could also move the polls.
Sit back and enjoy the ride.
How the feck can you lose to Trump? What a fecking shite candidate.
and a shite electorate
I view this election as a collective IQ test for USA.
Absolutely. How the feck can an openly racist, corrupt mother fecker be taken seriously?
If I was American, I'd be fuming.
Complaining about Hillary but voting for Trump is like asking for a bullet to the head because, you have a headache.
Both aren't palatable but one is terminal.
Great. More Hillary health nonsense. She is fine.
30 years of a shifting of wealth from the middle class to the top tenth of the top one percent, sky rocketing family debt, college tuition rates, rising housing and rent prices, a fear of losing the traditionalist identity (ie ageing white people getting nervous about multiculturalism and political correctness), a news network and talk radio infrastructure that has basically run a 24/7 non stop anti-Clinton infomercial for decades, and a demagogic narcissist candidate who has figured out how to instill a degree of anger into the population by pandering to their greatest fears of economic and security. With all that said, Trump is still only a coin flip from winning. She could reverse a lot of his gains be having a strong debate tonight, and I believe she will.
How did trump go from a 35% chance to 53% in 3 days!? I don't doubt their numbers, but that's one massive shift.
How could Al Gore and John Kerry lose to a "dummy" like Dubya ? The candidates are merely reflections of the people who vote for them.
When are the debates?
He has closed the gap in the national polls as well as surged in PA and CO, which are states in the Hillary column (still are for the most part), as well as consolidated his gains in Iowa and Ohio. That has more or less made this a coin flip.
First one is tonight
I have a feeling the VP debates will be the only ones with substantial policy discussion and nobody will be watching.
What time? Or rather, in how many hours? I'll end up tuning in.
The 538 forecast moves very easily. Others aren't quite as dramatic.
2am Uk time.
9pm New York time
Will be nice to see if Silver's model was sent into drama queen mode because of the assymetrical nature of Trump's candidacy or whether Wang and The NY Times were just too conservative in folding in Trump's probabilities. I tend to think Silver may be slightly aggressive with his pics this cycle.
Can't wait for the Civil War to erupt after he is elected.
White supremacists, Vladimir Putin, and Joe the Plumber are delighted.
The polls have consistently tightened for the last two weeks. He's pulled significantly ahead in OH and IA. If he wins OH I think he will could win PA too.
Don't think it's necessarily anything to do with the models.
If even @Raoul is now doubting Hilary's chances then we're all fecked.
Can't wait for the hunger games once the orange one is elected.
If even @Raoul is now doubting Hilary's chances then we're all fecked.
I've always followed the polls, polling averages, as well as a qualitative view that the electoral college was slightly tilted towards the Dems to form my view. When things looked tilted in Hillary's favor I called it as such. At the present, you could flip a coin. She needs to make him look reallly dumb tonight to reestablish a bit of momentum.
Decent....
Anyone else working on their end of the world playlist for Nov. 8th?
We have until Jan.
Inauguration is in January. I am considering the possibility of spending the entirety of my savings on girls, booze, and other recreational stuff.
I'm just going to listen to Scott Walker's Jesse on repeat until the nukes go out.
Pfft, the 'world' is bigger than just the US. I'm sure there'll be a cave in Antarctica that'll escape Trump's influence.
Gonna make for one hell of a holiday party season!
Great now the NSA is busying alerting the Pentagon to target a few missiles at Antarctica.
So business as usual.
Going to record the debate tonight and watch it tomorrow. But I feel all of Trumps best lines will be memes all over the internet before I get to sit down to watch.
It's by definition to do with the models when different models show different things. It's tightened, yes, but 538's the only one showing a genuine tossup. The others may follow soon, they may not.
How is that any different? oh wait, the order is different.
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