Probably won't watch the debates. I am voting for Hillary and anything short of her eating live babies during the debate will not change that and even then it might depend on how many babies she eats. Oh who I am kidding, eat them babies Hillary, I will still vote for you.
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
- Status
I'm more wanting to watch with a morbid fascination - how awful can Trump be, and still not see his poll numbers go down? I've no idea what the answer is.
I'm going to be having nightmares of waking up to headlines that Clinton fainted.
Whoever wins the election, American politics is going to be unbearable for the next four years, yeah? So much hatred on each side.
There won't be a civil war, mainly because the type of people who would fight in said war would also be the types to vote trump.Can't wait for the Civil War to erupt after he is elected.
If Trump wins it will be hell on earth in terms of the ensuing war with the media. He will basically limit his press availability to Hannity and O'Reilly.
It's weird. You have a large section of the population who will vote Republican no matter what. You have an equally large section of the population who will vote Democrat no matter what. For those people the debates won't swing them one way or the other. Then you remove the 5 to 10% who will vote for third parties (and don't bitch about them if you think the two party system sucks). So what the campaign really comes down to is convincing this small group of voters who will get swayed by whatever the big headlines in the press are.
Is there going to be a baying audience?
My ideal debate would be the two of them in a small room and the moderator says "So what do you want to start with?" and then let them just go off.
My ideal debate would be the two of them in a small room and the moderator says "So what do you want to start with?" and then let them just go off.
I've still not read much recently about Trump's ground campaign, Clinton will be inheriting probably the best electoral machine in modern politics and is outfundraising him substantially. Then again, if not talking about it helps their campaign overlook its importance then...
They should cancel the elections and start over again without Trump, Cruz and Hillary.
Is tonight the Fox News debate?
So the polls seem to show that an overwhelming number of people are already decided and that the debates are unlikely to change their minds.
That’s always the case if you look at absolute numbers, but this time the relative number of undecided voters is fairly high (compared to the historic average). Pretty big swings are still possible/the variance of this election is high, which increases the importance of the debates. It will be interesting to see if one of them is trying to court specific demographics that are still “on the fence”.
So gutted this will be on too late to watch 
Are Johnson voters more likely to switch to Trump or Clinton?
So gutted this will be on too late to watch
Yeah. I was thinking about staying up to watch but the sheer state I'd be in at work (otherwise known as hell-on-earth) the next day would be too much to bear. It's almost an excuse to call in sick but I reckon I'll leave that to another time when I really need to.
Will watch a repeat when I get home most probably.
He is apparently gobbling up quite a few millennials, so if he does fade as predicted, one would think Hillary would be the primary beneficiary, especially as the reality of a possible Trump win begins to set in over the next few weeks. If she even gets 1-2 percent more as a result of Johnson fading, it may be enough to completely turn a critical swing state like Ohio, NC, or FL.
Haha yeah, same here. I'll be up for the election night though.
This is great from the other (better) Nate:
People invest too much in forecasts. The small margins in this election could flip flop half a dozen times between now and election day.
Of course it's all great fun!
Hillary has inexplicably gained 5 points on Silver's nowcast from this morning to this afternoon.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1#now
Another reason I'm increasingly finding his model a bit kneejerkish.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1#now
Another reason I'm increasingly finding his model a bit kneejerkish.
Andrew Sullivan live-blogging the debate here later - http://nymag.com/
538 seems a bit over the place in this election. Has the Brexit shock has made them conservative in their estimate? Not a statistician so I can't back that claim, but they seemed a lot more confident in the last election. Maybe it's more to do with the numbers the polls are providing as inputs to the model.
Everyone should read Nate Silver's book and gain insight into his modeling process. Bayesian models with uncertain priors are very sensitive to incoming data.
Looking back now McCain vs. Obama must have been one of the strongest pairings in living history. I was firmly pro Obama back then, but one had to respect McCain...
What catastrophe happened that the same process now produced these two!? I blame Roger Ailes, Zuckerberg and whoever thought it would be good to limit communications to 140 characters And their disciples.
Reuters/Ipsos tends to be very volatile from memory, but something to add to the pile at any rate.
And they also don't make much sense when paired with these.
I shall be staying up to watch the live debate. Working from home tomorrow. Should be interesting to see what Trump comes out with.
Which will also fast forward global warming with a hundred years. Good times...
I'd be curious to know the difference between Silver and Sam Wang's Bayesian model (which has Hillary at 87% chance of winning).
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/29/the-short-term-presidential-predictor/
Last edited:
I'm in love with this page already. Much more technical detail than 538's site. I'm leaning towards Silver for now because of his prediction success in the previous election. I think the difference comes down to what priors each modeler used, as well as methodology.
Your pre-debate briefing book:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/your-debate-briefing-book-the-politics/#part1
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/your-debate-briefing-book-the-politics/#part1
Ah then I'm undecided.
- Status