2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Raoul said:
Not really. The USC poll is not considered particularly reliable since it has consistently polled Trump at much higher than the national average. She is still trouncing him in all the key swing states.
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Ran into a guy I know this weekend, he was talking up some poll that showed Trump ahead 56% to 35% or some such nonsense. He was talking about how the other polls are inaccurate and this proves it. Turns out the poll he was backing was some online thing, "Vote and post this on your facebook page" type thing. He had trouble grasping how that type of polling might not be entirely accurate.
 
langster said:


Fecking hell! Eric is just like his dad, was a bumbling feckwit of a human he is. And he's cringey too, something about him just isn't right, he looks off.

And.............

Hannity advises Trump. The blind leading the blind. :lol: :nervous:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/22/b...ubexchange&mtrref=www.huffingtonpost.com&_r=0
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I am always amazed by the Trumps' lack of self-awareness. Two of Eric's step-mums are foreign born. ... unless their rule is -- its ok they are attractive looking, feckable women otherwise if you are a brown or dark colour skinned guy, you can stay out.
 
How reliable are American pollsters? The pollsters here are shite. I am worried the polls are misleading.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
C+ pollster fwiw :p

National/state polls last few days seem to confirm one thing: convention bounce is consolidated and she's up by 7/8 nationally.
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She's probably not up that much in VA, but she is definitely up in the near double digit range, which means she is leading Trump by more than he is leading her in places like AZ, GA, TX, MO, and UT - and probably a few other previously slam dunk red states.
 
It's actually criminal how Dems leave places like Mississipi, Arizona, Georgia and Texas unattended for years. The last one especially, since it has been a minority-majority state for years. They aren't demographically red state, they are non-voting state.

Campaign finance turns a lot of people away from the process, but the biggest factor has to be gerrymandering. There's just no incentive to voting if you think your vote won't change the outcome. When Anne Richards was TX governor, their voter participation rate was 51%. Last time Rick Perry won the governorship, it was 38%. Nearly 2/3 eligible voters don't vote. Elections have consequences.
 
langster said:
:lol:

I love it when he blatantly says "yup, not even getting the irony of it" None of them get it at all do they? Hypocrites the lot of them. "I believe in freedom of religion and all religions are equal, except Islam" :rolleyes:
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I don't find those people funny at all. They scare me.
 
psychdelicblues said:
This might be of interest as well although it was a fortnight ago, probably at Trumps lowest.

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Not likely at the moment as her RCP average is down to about 5.5 of thereabouts.

She only needs to win about 22 states to win the election and could win as many as 30 or 31 if you chuck in GA, AZ, and MO. Realistically though, I think she will wind up with about 25 states which should be good for a 150 electoral vote win.
 
Raoul said:
Drumpf struggling to crack 37% in the latest national average. Can't win the Presidency unless you are above 40.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
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New poll from MO shows Trump ahead by only 1.

At this point he is having trouble holding on to solid red states let alone win states that Obama won in 2012 and 2008. Co and Va seem to be gone already.

Even in a tight race the electoral map was going to be difficult. With his current numbers it's going to be impossible.
 
DenisIrwin said:
A couple of, possibly naive, questions:
Is George Orwell's book 1984 well read in the US?
Has anyone over there even heard of Robert Tressell or his book The Ragged Trousered Philanthropists?
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Hey man, found out today that 1984 is on the English curriculum this year at my school for seniors.
 
New Florida poll has Clinton +14 among likely voters :lol:. Strong house effect, 538 adjusted to +10 but it's still utterly terrible for Agent Orange because that means no change from last week Monmouth +9.

Seriously, at this point Clinton better spend her money on downballot races. Electoral landslide is nice and all, but there really is no reason to waste time and money campaigning in Utah.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
New Florida poll has Clinton +14 among likely voters :lol:. Strong house effect, 538 adjusted to +10 but it's still utterly terrible for Agent Orange because that means no change from last week Monmouth +9.

Seriously, at this point Clinton better spend her money on downballot races. Electoral landslide is nice and all, but there really is no reason to waste time and money campaigning in Utah.
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I'm just hoping to see Texas go blue.
 
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/08/border-wall-donald-trump-immigration-clinton/

The Border Wall Already Exists
The American border patrol regime was lethally effective long before Donald Trump came along.

As he pulled that promise out of a hat, the actual history of the border disappeared. From then on in election 2016, there was just empty desert and Donald Trump.

Suddenly, there hadn’t been a bipartisan government effort over the last quarter century to put in place an unprecedented array of walls, detection systems, and guards for that southern border.

In those years, the number of Border Patrol agents had, in fact,quintupled from four thousand to more than twenty-one thousand, while Customs and Border Protection became the largest federal law enforcement agency in the country with more than sixty thousand agents.

The annual budget for border and immigration enforcement went from $1.5 to $19.5 billion, a more than twelve-fold increase. By 2016, federal government funding of border and immigration enforcement added up to $5 billion more than that for all other federal law enforcement agencies combined.

Operation Streamline, a cornerstone program in the “Consequence Delivery System,” part of a broader Border Patrol deterrence strategy for stopping undocumented immigration, is just one part of a vast enforcement-incarceration-deportation machine. The program is as no-nonsense as its name suggests.
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Twenty-one years before Trump’s wall-building promise (and seven years before the 9/11 attacks), the US Army Corps of Engineers began to replace the chain-link fence that separated Nogales, Sonora, in Mexico from Nogales, Arizona, in the United States with a wall built of rusty landing mats from the Vietnam and Persian Gulf wars.

Although there had been various halfhearted attempts at building border walls throughout the twentieth century, this was the first true effort to build a barrier of what might now be called Trumpian magnitude.

That rusty, towering wall snaked through the hills and canyons of northern Sonora and southern Arizona forever deranging a world that, given cross-border familial and community ties, then considered itself one. At the time, who could have known that the strategy the first wall embodied would still be the model for today’s massive system of exclusion.

In 1994, the threat wasn’t “terrorism.” In part, the call for more hardened, militarized borders came in response, among other things, to a never-ending drug war. It also came from US officials whoanticipated the displacement of millions of Mexicans after the implementation of the new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which, ironically, was aimed at eliminating barriers to trade and investment across North America.
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The unprecedented and desperate migration that followed came up against what might be considered the other side of the Clinton doctrine of open trade: walls, increased border agents, increased patrolling, and new surveillance technologies meant to cut off traditional crossing spots in urban areas like El Paso, San Diego, Brownsville, and Nogales.

“This administration has taken a strong stand to stiffen the protection of our borders,” President Bill Clinton said in 1996. “We are increasing border controls by 50 percent.”

Over the next twenty years, that border apparatus would expand exponentially in terms of personnel, resources, and geographic reach, but the central strategy of the 1990s (labeled “Prevention Through Deterrence”) remained the same.
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Although wall construction began during Bill Clinton’s administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) built most of the approximately seven hundred miles of fencing after the Secure Fence Act of 2006 was passed. At the time, Senator Hillary Clinton voted in favor of that Republican-introduced bill, along with twenty-six other Democrats.

“I voted numerous times when I was a senator to spend money to build a barrier to try to prevent illegal immigrants from coming in,” she commented at one 2015 campaign event, “and I do think you have to control your borders.”

The 2006 wall-building project was expected to be so environmentally destructive that homeland security chief Michael Chertoffwaived thirty-seven environmental and cultural laws in the name of national security. In this way, he allowed Border Patrol bulldozers to desecrate protected wilderness and sacred land.

“Imagine a bulldozer parking in your family graveyard, turning up bones,” Chairman Ned Norris Jr, of the Tohono O’odham Nation (a Native American tribe whose original land was cut in half by the US border) told Congress in 2008. “This is our reality.”

With a price tag of, on average, $4 million a mile, these border walls, barriers, and fences have proven to be one of the costliest border infrastructure projects undertaken by the United States.

For private border contractors, on the other hand, it’s the gift that just keeps on giving. In 2011, for example, the DHS granted Kellogg, Brown, and Root, a subsidiary of Halliburton, one of our “warrior corporations,” a $24.4 million upkeep contract.

In Tucson in early August, Republican vice presidential candidate Mike Pence looked out over a sea of red “Make America Great Again” caps and t-shirts and said, “We will secure our border. Donald Trump will build that wall.” He would be met with roaring applause, even though his statement made no sense.

Should Trump actually win, how could he build something that already exists? Indeed, for all practical purposes, the “Great Wall” that Trump talks about may, by January 2017, be as antiquated as the Great Wall of China given the new high-tech surveillance methods now coming on the market. These are being developed by a boomingborder techno-surveillance industry.

The twenty-first-century border is no longer just about walls; it’s about biometrics and drones. It’s about a “layered approach to national security,” given that, as former Border Patrol chief Mike Fisher has put it, “the international boundary is no longer the first or last line of defense, but one of many.”
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It is not a great article but an interesting one.
 
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