Well that's really concerning
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
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I thought Michelle's speech was cookie cutter.
I think Trump led Polls only yesterday, but Polls and Projections always had Hillary up
I think he's an underwhelming pick. Playing it safe, I guess.
It's early days, but it looks like it could be a close race. The problem for Hillary is that she's such a known commodity that it's difficult for her to convert her doubters. Her best chance going forward is that voters will reject Trump as they become more familiar with him. His large post convention bump is ominous for her in that respect, as it suggests greater exposure to Trump is more likely to attract voters.
Kaine's first speech was great. Up there with michelles obama in terms of stage speeches this us election cycle.
I don't think Hillary has ever been down in the polls in any race except 2008 v Obama. So if she wins it will be unprecedented.
Edit: and AFAIK she was never down in any state that she went on to win vs Bernie either. I think some polls in CA and NV came close, and maybe KY. But that's it.
Edit: and AFAIK she was never down in any state that she went on to win vs Bernie either. I think some polls in CA and NV came close, and maybe KY. But that's it.
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It suggests little more than conventions give candidates a small bump.
To take the median with 5 points, when 2 are such clear outliers....sort of defeats the point of taking the median.
The swings are 0,1,1,4,10. Median=1. IMO not representative.
is better but it would be helpful if they found the source.
Edit: the polls also seem to be settling around a narrow Trump lead, as opposed to pre-convention when it was a wide range, -1:+7 IIRC.
(Again, from memory) Most polls that were already pro-Trump seem to have stayed that way, is it that the Hillary-leads polls are basically correcting (and there was no convention bump)? Or that the pro-Trump polls were wrong and are correcting now (and there was a bump).
This was sent to me - any thoughts on it?
Connect the following 7 dots. Do you see a pattern?
1. Trump's debt load has grown dramatically over the last year, from $350 million to $630 million. At the same time, he’s been blackballed by all major US banks.
2. Post-bankruptcy, Trump has become highly reliant on money from Russia -- most of which has over the years become increasingly concentrated among oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin.
3. Paul Manafort, Trump's campaign manager and top advisor, spent most of the last decade as top campaign and communications advisor to Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian Ukrainian Prime Minister and then President whose ouster in 2014 led to the on-going crisis and proxy war in Ukraine. Yanukovych was and remains a close ally of Putin.
4. Trump's foreign policy advisor on Russia and Europe is Carter Page, a man whose entire professional career has revolved around investments in Russia and who has deep and continuing financial and employment ties to Gazprom, which, in turn, is part of Putin’s financial empire.
5. Over the course of the last year, Putin has aligned all Russian state controlled media behind Trump.
6. The Trump Camp was totally indifferent to the Republican Party platform, with one exception: They changed the party platform to eliminate assistance to Ukraine against Russian military operations in eastern Ukraine. Not incidentally, this is the single most important issue to Putin.
7. Trump is also suggesting the US and thus NATO might not come to the defense of NATO member states in the Baltics in the case of a Russian invasion -- another important issue to Putin.
Connect the following 7 dots. Do you see a pattern?
1. Trump's debt load has grown dramatically over the last year, from $350 million to $630 million. At the same time, he’s been blackballed by all major US banks.
2. Post-bankruptcy, Trump has become highly reliant on money from Russia -- most of which has over the years become increasingly concentrated among oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin.
3. Paul Manafort, Trump's campaign manager and top advisor, spent most of the last decade as top campaign and communications advisor to Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian Ukrainian Prime Minister and then President whose ouster in 2014 led to the on-going crisis and proxy war in Ukraine. Yanukovych was and remains a close ally of Putin.
4. Trump's foreign policy advisor on Russia and Europe is Carter Page, a man whose entire professional career has revolved around investments in Russia and who has deep and continuing financial and employment ties to Gazprom, which, in turn, is part of Putin’s financial empire.
5. Over the course of the last year, Putin has aligned all Russian state controlled media behind Trump.
6. The Trump Camp was totally indifferent to the Republican Party platform, with one exception: They changed the party platform to eliminate assistance to Ukraine against Russian military operations in eastern Ukraine. Not incidentally, this is the single most important issue to Putin.
7. Trump is also suggesting the US and thus NATO might not come to the defense of NATO member states in the Baltics in the case of a Russian invasion -- another important issue to Putin.
The trend of the odds shows a significant tightening of the race over the last several weeks. I think more of it is due to the public reaction to the FBI announcement about her tenure at the State Department. At one point it was nearly 80-20 in Clinton's favor. A LOT has happened since then. We're in for a real race.
Please, granted there's some advantage for Russia if Trump gets elected. If it's true, then Trump would go hard on Russia, get elected and do his stuff in the background instead of risking the wrath of Americans by changing platforms.
Well at least now, the conspiracy theorists who think Hillary set up Trump to run this race could please shut up.
We can agree that he's been gaining in recent weeks, but:
1) he's up against a hard ceiling. Never at any point during this cycle has he moved past 45% in any polling aggregate (of course, he was also up against a ceiling in the primaries, until he wasn't)
2) the idea of a 'large' convention bounce is fanciful. Bar CNN, whose poll was immediately blared loud and wide on major networks (surprise, surprise), every other polling oulets, from reputable ones like NBC to dumpster rubbish one like Gravis have pegged his bounce from 0-2.
3) polling during conventions is highly unreliable. Most pollsters agree it's noise due to variations in response rate rather than any meaningful change.
Drawing conclusions based on one outlier is...(choose the adjective)
Anyone remember had St. Reagan and crew got in bed with the Iranians before the 1980 elections to scuttle Carter´s presidency, after they had humiliated the US with the hostage taking . . . and then ended up selling our arch enemies all those missils?
It´s not like this is new to the Republican playbook?
Nobody is buying it.
Did "The Russians" also force the DNC to write those bigoted emails, or collude against one of the candidates? That's the real issue. Democratic corruption and voter suppression.
Did "The Russians" also force the DNC to write those bigoted emails, or collude against one of the candidates? That's the real issue. Democratic corruption and voter suppression.
The Republicans are hardly innocent either. From what I've seen they are guilty of much the same...
Random fact: The briefcase (which is used when the president is not at a fixed command centre) that is used if the president wants to carry out a nuclear attack is called the nuclear football.
Another random fact: Both Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter once lost the nuclear launch codes presidents are required to keep on person
.The emails themselves are small potatoes compared to the Russian angle where you have another country attempting to influence the outcome of the US elections by tacitly promoting their candidate of choice by attempting to embarrass his opposition. That's the real story here and its far bigger than a few hacks at the DNC chatting about how to promote Hillary over Bernie. That will be soon forgotten, but what won't is Putin attempting to influence who becomes US President.
So why do the Republicans get a pass for all of their own dodgy stuff?
Re: "The Russians did it!"
Wikileaks promises more damaging email links that could lead to a Clinton indictment:
And for all you anti-Trumpists out there, here's your girl Elizabeth caught in a Nazi salute last night:
Wikileaks promises more damaging email links that could lead to a Clinton indictment:
And for all you anti-Trumpists out there, here's your girl Elizabeth caught in a Nazi salute last night:
Another random fact: Both Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter once lost the nuclear launch codes presidents are required to keep on person
Reading about nuclear codes and things connected to them is immensely interesting. The football travels the whole world with the president and there is a guy who's job it is specifically to carry it around.
Brandon approves.
Bill Clinton apparently used to lose it from time to time.
The inevitabilty of it has taken away the novelty of Hillary becoming the first woman candidate of either major party in the Usa ever. Its kinda of a big moment but very less talk of it compared to what the first black president talk/Obama got.
Yeah, quite a few of the presidents since JFK have been out of contact with the football. I think Nixon was away from it for 30 minutes.
Also, apparently the code in the JFK, Johnson, Nixon, Ford Years was 0000 0000
Another random fact: Both Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter once lost the nuclear launch codes presidents are required to keep on person
Not that big a deal, since the launch codes need double authorization from a elected person. Still better than actual warheads "lost" during the USSR breakup, I suppose.
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Bit rich for us to complain, given our past, um, record of influencing government elections around the world. cf Chile
Good job the News of the World never tried to hack them.Yeah, quite a few of the presidents since JFK have been out of contact with the football. I think Nixon was away from it for 30 minutes.
Also, apparently the code in the JFK, Johnson, Nixon, Ford Years was 0000 0000
Hillary and dems should just nickname trump as the russian, russiantrump or just Putin. Use his tactics vs him.
We are getting a recession either way (these things go in cycles after all), but with Trump we may get it sooner rather than later.
The expansion has felt like it is getting a little long in the tooth for a couple of years now, and yet stock continue higher. Probably a beneficiary of global liquidity. When liquidity is withdrawn you’ll probably see more reasonable levels in the market.
Trump may be a catalyst to that. Not because it has anything to do with Trump, but because the Fed, which is full of Obama appointees are not going to feel any obligation to help Trump at all. We will get our rate hikes. And a pullback in the market.
Yeah, quite a few of the presidents since JFK have been out of contact with the football. I think Nixon was away from it for 30 minutes.
Also, apparently the code in the JFK, Johnson, Nixon, Ford Years was 0000 0000
Some details are pretty comical. The list of options a president have to choose from is called 'the menu', with short descriptions for 'courses', shortened from at the behest of one Jimmy Carter, who complained it was too complicated to digest given the limited response time.
The Republican primary was conducted fairly and equitably. The Democratic primary was not.
The President can't launch nukes unilaterally, Joint Chiefs and SecDef need to be in concurrence. You'd think there'd be no need for dumbing things down.
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