Crono
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- Dec 2, 2008
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I'm not American, but I don't see why he wouldn't have a chance in the election if nominated. It's getting nominated against Clinton that will be the really hard part. I asked an American poster why he thought Sanders didn't have a chance in the general election in the Labour Party thread, I'll bring it in here...How is that anti-American? You think Sanders had a chance in the election if nominated? Because I'd be all for that.
I'm basing it on the fact that extreme candidates never win general elections in the US. There's also the median voter theorem that supports the historical record. That's without addressing him specifically. As for him, he won't raise enough money to win the election, he'll be 75 next November, he has limited voter recognition, he's an old white man, and he's avowedly a socialist. While some portion of the American populace is supportive of parts of Sanders' platform, it is either a) not a majority or b) not the people who matter politically ($$$). Ex: The majority of people support decriminalizing marijuana, but those in Congress and those in the FDA don't. Most of the policies that the public likes are policies that Clinton also supports, or any other major candidate for the Democratic nomination.
As for polls, it's August. Sanders is the only person campaigning hard on the Democratic side right now and has the benefit of several things going on for Clinton that are dragging her numbers down. Biden and Webb either haven't announced or aren't campaigning seriously right now. Both are more moderate and likely to gain the votes of average Americans.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
You make some strong points I partially agree with, particularly that he won't be able to raise much money.. and if it's him up against a Republican, no matter who it is, all of the corporate money in the country will flood that one candidate, very much unlike the two elections Obama contested where the money raised was more or less evenly split. Something to consider though is that in a general election, it will be simply impossible for the media or anyone to marginalise Bernie Sanders's voice, and I don't think you really need much money to get the electorate to pay attention in a presidential election; which is very much unlike a mid-term or Senate/House election where money really means the difference between people having heard of you or not when they're filling in their ballots. That definitely won't factor in here.
I don't think the point about his limited voter recognition makes sense for the same reason. You also have such long and drawn-out election campaigns that everyone who is willing to pay the slightest bit of attention to politics will surely be forced to know who he is by voting time. I'm not persuaded at all that his being an old white man will be held against him. I also think the idea that he is too 'extreme' or far-left to win an election is based on really flimsy evidence and logic, and is something the establishment believes only because they tell it to themselves over and over again, partly to justify themselves selling out for campaign $$$. I bet most of his policies that are considered the most extreme by Washington pundits are popular with the electorate.
I hope he wins the nomination, because it will be one of the most exciting presidential elections ever.
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