2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Silver seems to believe that 80% of Rubio voters will turn out for Cruz in upcoming primaries, as would about 2/3 of Kasich voters if he were to drop out. That should be enough to win a few states, or at least blunt Trump's momentum. Kasich should probably consider getting out, but he's likely angling to accrue delegates for leverage at a contested convention, which must be driving Cruz nuts right about now.
 
I'm pretty sure Hillary would rather face Cruz than Trump. He's a lot more predictable and is equally unlikable. So at the moment the Dems are in a win win situation.

Cruz has played a great race so far to be fair to him. If they oust Trump, the GOP might be so relieved that Trump isn't their nominee that they'd be willing to coalesce and fight vigorously for Cruz. Something that I don't think would've happened if Cruz won the primary without Trump in the mix.
 
Raoul said:
Silver seems to believe that 80% of Rubio voters will turn out for Cruz in upcoming primaries, as would about 2/3 of Kasich voters if he were to drop out. That should be enough to win a few states, or at least blunt Trump's momentum. Kasich should probably consider getting out, but he's likely angling to accrue delegates for leverage at a contested convention, which must be driving Cruz nuts right about now.
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I feel like this could be abbreviated somehow.

Thing is with Kasich, I doubt he wants to tie himself as a VP candidate to either of those remaining, and though he probably sees Cruz as a less damaging candidate in a GE, it's essentially like choosing which leg you want to cut off. Though he and Cruz could at least play it smart and coordinate as to who challenges Trump in certain states - instead Kasich is going into Utah which'll prevent Cruz getting over the 50% threshold and thus allow Trump to get some delegates. The whole Never Trump thing is pretty symbolic of the mismanagement of the GOP generally.
 
Ubik said:
538 has opined on the primary turnout matter - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/

Conclusion that it doesn't look to be predictive of the GE, likely more to do with how competitive the primary is.
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Interesting, but I wish they had posted the raw difference numbers from this time around. The huge difference (16m) seen in 2008, did definitely show an enthusiasm for Obama (though the R race was not a foregone conclusion either); if it is mirrored on the R side this time I think we cant dismiss it.
 
Apparently, Sanders' wife was ambushed by Joe Arpaio, a nutter who endorsed Trump. With very little momentum going into a must win Arizona, this controversy could create further trouble for Sanders within the Latino community in AZ.
 
Cheesy said:
Surely "just wanting change" isn't a valid reason to vote for someone like Trump, though? Surely they've actually got to offer something reasonable and coherent to actually warrant letting them in?
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One would hope so, but sadly not. But remember this is the voting populace that back in the 90's when there was a big "vote for the Washington Outsider" feeling one of the elections actually did not blink an eye when many career Congressmen/women and Senators ran as "DC Outsiders." Okay to be fair not everyone bought into this, but a fair number of incumbents managed to re-brand themselves as outsiders
 
Ubik said:
I feel like this could be abbreviated somehow.

Thing is with Kasich, I doubt he wants to tie himself as a VP candidate to either of those remaining, and though he probably sees Cruz as a less damaging candidate in a GE, it's essentially like choosing which leg you want to cut off. Though he and Cruz could at least play it smart and coordinate as to who challenges Trump in certain states - instead Kasich is going into Utah which'll prevent Cruz getting over the 50% threshold and thus allow Trump to get some delegates. The whole Never Trump thing is pretty symbolic of the mismanagement of the GOP generally.
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Cruzuts?
 
Sanders just pretty much repeated what Devine said the other day :nervous:

I know he cares not one whit for the Democratic Party, but surely he has enough sense not to be involved in conspiratorial waffle like taking the nomination by supes when being beaten in both pledged delegates and popular vote?
 
berbatrick said:
Interesting, but I wish they had posted the raw difference numbers from this time around. The huge difference (16m) seen in 2008, did definitely show an enthusiasm for Obama (though the R race was not a foregone conclusion either); if it is mirrored on the R side this time I think we cant dismiss it.
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The differences between 2008 and 2016 are so great (huge favourables for Obama, liked within the party, put together a broad coalition, very unpopular sitting president, financial crash, etc) that even if you can't dismiss it, I think it deserves a hell of a lot less handwringing than it's currently causing. That the dip in Dem turnout is being judged against such a freak high in 2008 shows that more is being made of it than should be.
 
Raoul said:
Silver seems to believe that 80% of Rubio voters will turn out for Cruz in upcoming primaries, as would about 2/3 of Kasich voters if he were to drop out. That should be enough to win a few states, or at least blunt Trump's momentum. Kasich should probably consider getting out, but he's likely angling to accrue delegates for leverage at a contested convention, which must be driving Cruz nuts right about now.
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think Kasich wants the VP nomination.
 
Red Dreams said:
surely it will be with the guy who has the most delegates.
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Cruz and Kasich could easily strike a deal and go public with it, whereby Kasich is guaranteed a VP slot. If Rubio then publicly endorses Cruz like Lindsey Graham did, it will pretty much galvanize Cruz into the anti-Trump option and give him more momentum. If Cruz can keep things within 2 or 3 hundred from Trump's delegates, then he has a reasonable shot of causing him all sorts of problems in terms of reaching 1,237.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Someone posted in this thread yesterday that the FBI were investigating a claim that Trump had promised Carson a post. I haven't checked it out though.
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Yeah that was me, it was on the news yesterday or the day before but haven't seen any follow up on it since then. It also said he could face arrest over inciting a riot for the violence at his rallies, but not seen anything about that either. To be fair, the news today is concentrating more on him getting sent white powder in the post and the fact "Anonymous" have targeted Trump and said they are going to take him down, and today posted his phone number and social security number online to prove they can get to him. Apparently because he said they couldn't and he wasn't bothered.

http://occupydemocrats.com/2016/03/...egally-promised-cabinet-position-endorsement/
 
fishfingers15 said:
Ted Cruz names Frank Gaffney as one of his National Security Advisers. He's another terrible nutter apparently
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His wiki page has a selection of his conspiracy theories:

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The Jews must be so jealous...all the far right bigots used to blame the Jews in all of their conspiracies.

The muslims have taken over and are working hard to live up to the expectations. We're still a work in progress, but give it another decade and BOOM!

I'm not surprised - Cruz is a Christian fundamentalist and would much rather the US was a theocracy like Iran.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Sanders just pretty much repeated what Devine said the other day :nervous:

I know he cares not one whit for the Democratic Party, but surely he has enough sense not to be involved in conspiratorial waffle like taking the nomination by supes when being beaten in both pledged delegates and popular vote?
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Just saw that as well. Essentially repeating what RD was saying the other day - black voters in the South shouldn't decide the nominee. Combine that with one of his booster organisations referring to those states as "the Confederacy", I think they're tanking pretty hard in the moral high ground stakes of late.
 
Neutral said:
The Jews must be so jealous...all the far right bigots used to blame the Jews in all of their conspiracies.

The muslims have taken over and are working hard to live up to the expectations. We're still a work in progress, but give it another decade and BOOM!

I'm not surprised - Cruz is a Christian fundamentalist and would much rather the US was a theocracy like Iran.
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The Irish don't get a fair shake in conspiracy theories. I believe we're at the bottom of quite a bit of the world's evil-doing - but we never get credit. Our charming exterior is the perfect disguise. :(
 
fishfingers15 said:
Ted Cruz names Frank Gaffney as one of his National Security Advisers. He's another terrible nutter apparently
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Cruz's list of security advisors is genuinely frightening. Today I'm wondering if Trump just randomly clicking buttons is the safer option.
 
Ubik said:
Just saw that as well. Essentially repeating what RD was saying the other day - black voters in the South shouldn't decide the nominee. Combine that with one of his booster organisations referring to those states as "the Confederacy", I think they're tanking pretty hard in the moral high ground stakes of late.
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I think got a muscle sprain with that reach you just attempted.
 
adexkola said:
Linking comments from booster orgs to Sanders. If the comments were made by people closer to him and he didn't rebut them you'd have a fairer point.
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Yeah that's fair, though I was thinking more of his more vociferous supporters with that half (and they were proper dicks about it afterwards as well), but the two are certainly separate and I allowed the conflation. But diminishing the delegates Clinton's earned in the South with suggestions his "greater electability" could override them with the supers, even in the case of a deficit in pledged delegates, remains well beneath the expectations I have of Bernie.
 
Tarrou said:
Cruz's list of security advisors is genuinely frightening. Today I'm wondering if Trump just randomly clicking buttons is the safer option.
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As crazy as Trump is, he has got nothing on Cruz.
Cruz is a genuine villain.
 
Gambit said:
WOW! Thats actually really surprising. Although out of all the choices the Koch's would prefer Cruz.
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is it? Kasich did his job and denied Trump Ohio...but winning your own state is the bare minimum. He's done nothing elsewhere and Cruz is in 2nd place...

It's like Graham endorsing Cruz - not much else they can do.
 
Neutral said:
is it? Kasich did his job and denied Trump Ohio...but winning your own state is the bare minimum. He's done nothing elsewhere and Cruz is in 2nd place...

It's like Graham endorsing Cruz - not much else they can do.
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Plus, it's important for the Utah caucus, where obviously the Mormon population is one that'll take Romney's endorsement to heart. If it pushes Cruz over 50% there, it's done its job more or less.
 
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