The Republican Party are actually going to do this, aren't they? 
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
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Look at that face though.
Rule 40...
To be eligible to be the republican candidate rule 40 states that a nominee must win a majority of delegates from 8 or more states.
Surely only Trump and Cruz can possibly do that - kaisch would need to finish first in a third on the remaining states which looking at polls seems impossible
So cruz or trump - I find it hard to see the party supporting cruz so trump will be the nominee
if the change the rules I could see a lot of people coalescing around kaisch but if they change the rules the donald will say he is being treated unfairly - go independent and fracture the party... so they wont do that
so trump is the nominee as far as I can see
To be eligible to be the republican candidate rule 40 states that a nominee must win a majority of delegates from 8 or more states.
Surely only Trump and Cruz can possibly do that - kaisch would need to finish first in a third on the remaining states which looking at polls seems impossible
So cruz or trump - I find it hard to see the party supporting cruz so trump will be the nominee
if the change the rules I could see a lot of people coalescing around kaisch but if they change the rules the donald will say he is being treated unfairly - go independent and fracture the party... so they wont do that
so trump is the nominee as far as I can see
I can see them (the RNC) pushing Cruz over Trump if push came to shove. Cruz will likely lose them the election, but Trump could lose them the entire party.
If Trump still wins, either through delegate count or brokered convention, I think the RNC will simply not help Trump during the election. The establishment is going to be badly-wounded anyway, so they will simply do what it takes to minimise the damage done to the GOP so they remain in "power". And if Trump does decide the RNC isn't being fair and runs as an Independent (either voluntarily, or if the RNC ignores the delegates, or if the RNC changes the rules), second-placed Cruz would be a useful sacrificial lamb to lose them this election.
As much of a freefall the GOP are in, their likely nomination could still beat Hillary Clinton. You'd think whoever the dem nominee is would walk the GE by default, but the establishment choice has ironically made it closer than it needs to be.
In short, the dems are also considerably fecked up and Bernie's Momentum could signal fracturing of the support base considering the disdain for shillary.
In short, the dems are also considerably fecked up and Bernie's Momentum could signal fracturing of the support base considering the disdain for shillary.
No way. Even if Trump doesn't reach the magic number, come convention he is going to be the front runner by a huge margin. Big wigs in smoke filled rooms awarding the nomination to Cruz then will destroy the party, both in regional and national elections.
With the changing demographics, there really isn't any future for the current iteration of the Republican party beyond November. Their best chance for remaining relevant is throwing all their support behind Trump and urging him to rein in more moderates and independents (which isn't impossible against Hillary).
Trump-Clinton race. Thoughts on turnout and how it impacts the house and Senate? Could this be a trifecta for Dems?
If Trump wins the nomination, the GOP establishment is going to be destroyed regardless of whether or not they nominate Trump. It just becomes a question of whether the long-term pain inflicted by Trump outweighs the pain inflicted by disavowing him.
Remember, I'm talking about the establishment here, not the party.
If the GOP elders were willing to work with Trump, they wouldn't be talking about a contested convention and we wouldn't be having this discussion.
I think the GOP elders are betting on the GOP lasting longer than Trump, and I think they will be willing to hurt the party for long-term gain. Everything they have done so far in this cycle demonstrates this.
Trump is going to need one hell of a negotiation to get them on his side. Cabinet picks? SCOTUS picks? We might see his so-called "Art of the Deal" in full swing...
I think that Bernie will force Hillary to lean more to the left in the general. That's the only chance she has of snatching some of his voters. She has the advantage of having Obama campaigning for the Democratic nominee as well, so there is a good chance the Democratic base will be inspired to rally around an insipid nominee.
Trump has done real well in the midwest so far, let's see if he can make that happen in November.
As far as the establishment goes, I can't see them being this Pyrrhic at the convention. If they are, then your analysis is right, but I'd still be confused as to how the potential of being a minority in all 3 branches of the federal government and numerous States is appealing to them.
To rub salt into the wounds Obama is set to announce a supreme court pick today. He's a WUM master.
Wow, didn't realize Clinton pretty much won Missouri too. Horrid night for Bernie.
Both IL and MO have some weird rules. Delegates are assigned by how you do in congressional districts. It's more complicated than that but roughly if Trump outperformed Cruz in more districts then he'd win many more delegates. Cruz can run up the score in one or two congressional districts and be close in the statewide race but that doesn't help him in the delegate math.
Both IL and MO have some weird rules. Delegates are assigned by how you do in congressional districts. It's more complicated than that but roughly if Trump outperformed Cruz in more districts then he'd win many more delegates. Cruz can run up the score in one or two congressional districts and be close in the statewide race but that doesn't help him in the delegate math.
A Trump win is about as good as pyrrhic though, surely? Once they go Trump, the GOP will become more nationalist and extreme - is that what the GOP elders want in the long-run? And what if Trump loses in the general election? They would all be tarred with the same brush for backing him.
I think the GOP will simply support him half-heartedly, and bait Trump into throwing a tantrum and going Independent. That can be spun as Trump being a traitor rather than the GOP being the traitor.
Personally, I think they have a decent shot at the House and Senate, especially if they give up the Presidency and divert all their resources to it. If not now, the next election after the base gets sick of Hillary. And in a lot of ways, that could be enough - they did it with Obama.
Hillary has gone as left as she can - there will be no further shift to the left.
Sanders supporters will come to their senses - people always do. Anyone suggesting mass defections or apathy...is either too young to remember 2008 or has a failing memory
In 2008 - when Obama won the nomination, hardcore Hillary supporters bitched the party machine and the establishment had conspired against their candidate and they wouldn't vote for Obama (they complained about turncoat super delegates lol).
They even formed a group - 'Party Unity, My Ass'.
What's worse - a significant number said they wouldn't vote for Obama and would vote for McCain....
And then the Democrats had a convention, and people started to fall in line...I won't spoil what happened in the GE
There is no 'center' for Trump to move to - he is where he is....counting on angry white people and completely alienating everyone else....you simply can't win a GE with that demographic.
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Yep, another night like this next week and/or the week after and I suspect Bernie will suspend.
Well I imagine quite a few Republicans running for other levels of government will distance themselves from Trump, you will not see him out on the campaign trail stops with other Republican candidates standing next to him. Well some will, some won't. How much this hurts those candidates, not really sure.
OF course a trifecta for the Dems is a real possibility especially if the Repubs splinter as expected. Then the Dems will have a chance to really push their agenda through, the one downside to that is that if things go wrong they won't be able to blame the Repubs. They will be in their 3rd straight term of holding the White House, have control of the House and Senate, everything that happens good they will be able to take credit for, anything bad that happens will all fall on them.
An interesting article on Bernie and his chances going forward.
http://linkis.com/usuncut.com/politics/TcDSI
And Trump has just announced live on Fox just said he WILL NOT be attending the next debate on Fox news in a couple of days. He said he has an important speech lined up in front of some very important people, when the presenters asked who he said "ermm important people" and they had to answer the question for him.
http://linkis.com/usuncut.com/politics/TcDSI
And Trump has just announced live on Fox just said he WILL NOT be attending the next debate on Fox news in a couple of days. He said he has an important speech lined up in front of some very important people, when the presenters asked who he said "ermm important people" and they had to answer the question for him.
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I said about 20-30 pages back that it'd be over by New York. Looks like it's still on course.
Good post. The exit polls so far have showed Hillary as the candidate most would be satisfied with, at around 75-80% compared to Trump's ~50. Those saying she'll lose a lot of support don't really have anything to back that up other than their own wishful thinking.Hillary has gone as left as she can - there will be no further shift to the left.
Sanders supporters will come to their senses - people always do. Anyone suggesting mass defections or apathy...is either too young to remember 2008 or has a failing memory
In 2008 - when Obama won the nomination, hardcore Hillary supporters bitched the party machine and the establishment had conspired against their candidate and they wouldn't vote for Obama (they complained about turncoat super delegates lol).
They even formed a group - 'Party Unity, My Ass'.
What's worse - a significant number said they wouldn't vote for Obama and would vote for McCain....
And then the Democrats had a convention, and people started to fall in line...I won't spoil what happened in the GE
There is no 'center' for Trump to move to - he is where he is....counting on angry white people and completely alienating everyone else....you simply can't win a GE with that demographic.
That site is genuinely awful. Anything that says Bernie had a "phenomenal night" is to be immediately disregarded.An interesting article on Bernie and his chances going forward.
http://linkis.com/usuncut.com/politics/TcDSI
And Trump has just announced live on Fox just said he WILL NOT be attending the next debate on Fox news in a couple of days. He said he has an important speech lined up in front of some very important people, when the presenters asked who he said "ermm important people" and they had to answer the question for him.
Hence my use of "interesting" didn't think it would be taken seriously with the headline.
I literally LOL'ed when it said Bernie could win California or New York 60-40, talk about being delusional
Its probably a good job Kaisch won his home state otherwise he would probably have had to drop out and the debate would just have been ted cruz on the stage.An interesting article on Bernie and his chances going forward.
http://linkis.com/usuncut.com/politics/TcDSI
And Trump has just announced live on Fox just said he WILL NOT be attending the next debate on Fox news in a couple of days. He said he has an important speech lined up in front of some very important people, when the presenters asked who he said "ermm important people" and they had to answer the question for him.
Still I imagine the ratings without trump will be very very low... and no doubt he will say / do something that will swallow up all the news coverage
He'll be giving a speech at an AIPAC event - so lots of I love Israel and discussions about the muslim problemAn interesting article on Bernie and his chances going forward.
http://linkis.com/usuncut.com/politics/TcDSI
And Trump has just announced live on Fox just said he WILL NOT be attending the next debate on Fox news in a couple of days. He said he has an important speech lined up in front of some very important people, when the presenters asked who he said "ermm important people" and they had to answer the question for him.
Interesting.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/15/paul-ryan-wont-categorically-rule-out-accepting-gop-nom.html
Ryan-Kasich would be a pretty good ticket for the GOP if they wind up at a brokered convention. I'd be for it just to watch the Trump meltdown.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/15/paul-ryan-wont-categorically-rule-out-accepting-gop-nom.html
Ryan-Kasich would be a pretty good ticket for the GOP if they wind up at a brokered convention. I'd be for it just to watch the Trump meltdown.
If the GOP fix it so Cruz is the nominee, they have no chance. Only Trump has any chance. I hope Bernie contests all the way to California. Hillary needs to meet him half way to read his supporters votes. to fight for public option and to eliminate interest costs for student loans will help.
that makes no sense. Even if they push aside Trump, surely Cruz has more delegates. It would make a mockery of the primary process. Why not just let the RNC appoint their person at the convention.
Obama is set to announce a SCOTUS nominee today - my money is on Srinivasan, who is actually a friend of Ted Cruz's, which would make things interesting given the GOP obstructionist position.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...the-supreme-court-could-change-u-s-elections/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...the-supreme-court-could-change-u-s-elections/
As in, they can't select any one of the remaining candidates due voting gridlock, and eventually opt to go with someone completely different. That's why Romney has suddenly stuck his beak in, and Ryan as well as others would also be in the mix.
Hillary has gone as left as she can - there will be no further shift to the left.
Sanders supporters will come to their senses - people always do. Anyone suggesting mass defections or apathy...is either too young to remember 2008 or has a failing memory
In 2008 - when Obama won the nomination, hardcore Hillary supporters bitched the party machine and the establishment had conspired against their candidate and they wouldn't vote for Obama (they complained about turncoat super delegates lol).
They even formed a group - 'Party Unity, My Ass'.
What's worse - a significant number said they wouldn't vote for Obama and would vote for McCain....
And then the Democrats had a convention, and people started to fall in line...I won't spoil what happened in the GE
There is no 'center' for Trump to move to - he is where he is....counting on angry white people and completely alienating everyone else....you simply can't win a GE with that demographic.
Hillary isn't as inspiring as Obama, who had a record breaking turnout in 2008. Not sure she'll get the same reaction.
Trump on the other hand is capturing blue collar workers who a Cruz or Rubio would have never got.
You said that weeks ago though, and outlined the reasons why. Funnily enough they were talking about it on Fox the other night and someone said all the names mentioned so far are just a diversion and that it will be Srinivasan and it would be a near impossible position for the Republicans with the general public, because he was voted unanimously and any rejection would make the Republicans look awful and like obstructionists. Which I believe is almost word for word what you said weeks ago.
You don't happen to know this weeks lottery numbers do you?
I think this election so far all of it, the debates, candidates and their positions proves that the political system in States is quite broken. I also think that Trump nomination can set GOP back years, they've just started to appeal to not very conservative folks, they started to work with minorities, all this will be under threat and it could translate into worse senate, congress performances.
to pick people who have not been voted for will be giving a walkover to Hillary. won't happen imo. It will be one of the 3. Most probably Trump.
If it is Trump for the GOP, it will be very close in FL,OH,MI and NH.
Limbaugh said the other day that Jeb! could make a convention comeback.
Would be hilarious, the Donald will literally explode
Would be hilarious, the Donald will literally explode
Republicans would have their own 1968 Chicago convention. It will be very ugly only it won't be the police kicking ass, it'll be mouth-breathing Trumpers.
all this talk about taking the nomination from the person who has the most votes is wishful thinking.
It's pretty obvious that @Raoul works for Fox News. My bet is that he is Hannity posing as a liberal as cover.
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