2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Neutral said:
'Moderate' Republicans will not cooperate with a Democratic President.

Anytime they do anything but obstruct, they get called out and a campaign starts against them.

John Boehner was a bonafide douchebag...yet, he wasn't good enough for the Tea Party retards.
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The whole thing will turn on its head one day, it's unsustainable. The GOP used the teabaggers to reclaim Congress and States legislations but that movement is hijacking their party and sooner or later will drive out all the moderates into the independents or Dems camp.

Conversely, on the Dems side, the progressive wing may in one day become a full fledged democratic socialist party, and the conservative Dems will become unaffiliated. American politics is becoming increasingly polarized and it's likely we'll see a 3 parties system in the near future, one extreme right, one center right and one left.
 
naturalized said:
Ehhh... I think I see what you mean, but my untrained eye is possibly just not very good at interpreting this stuff. I'll take your word for it.

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Some things that interested me about the Des Moines Register's findings:

1. Trumpeters have been talking shit for months now about how there will be a massive surge of new voters for their man, as Obama managed to do in 08. Nothing in the data supports this.

2. Part of Cruz's problem is that the Evangelical turnout seems to be mysteriously lower this time round. If that's an error and they turn out at historical levels, then Trump and Cruz are literally neck and neck, even more so than now.

3. Trump's biggest weaknesses are his pro-choice history and support of eminent domain, exactly as people like Ross Douthat have been pointing out for months now. Why establishment Republicans are such pussies about hitting him harder on these things (or at all) continues to mystify me.

4. The all-important trendline (Santorum rode a positive trend from 6th to 1st in the space of a week in 2012) is negative for Cruz. He might possibly do even worse than expected.

5. Cruz has much broader support than Trump. In a two-horse race, Cruz crushes Trump 53 to 35. His vote is being diluted. Not coincidentally, Cruz benefits most from last-minute changes of minds.

6. Iowa Republicans don't seem to care either that their Governor hates Cruz or that Trump skipped the last debate.

7. Democrats really, really love each other even if they disagree. Clinton's favourable-unfavourable is at 64 percentage points (81-17), Sanders is at 70 (82-12). O'Malley is at 33, but that's only because no one knows who he is (41% undecided). Compare Cruz at 37 (65-28), and Trump at a brisk 3 (50-47).

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...rump-reclaims-lead-latest-iowa-poll/79562322/
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...er-look-democrats-iowa-poll-results/79571562/
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...0/closer-look-gop-iowa-poll-results/79566664/
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Nice summary!

Had a thought earlier than Sanders is essentially the Dem version of Ron Paul. Grandfatherly party outsider that wants radical change, long record of saying to same thing to prove authenticity, large and vocal following on the internet and among young people, initially not taken too seriously but strong poll numbers forces the establishment to take notice.
 
I want Trump and Bernie to win just so I can see whether the American people choose a racist, sexist, islamophobe or a socialist as their next president.

Trump it is then! :lol:
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
The whole thing will turn on its head one day, it's unsustainable. The GOP used the teabaggers to reclaim Congress and States legislations but that movement is hijacking their party and sooner or later will drive out all the moderates into the independents or Dems camp.

Conversely, on the Dems side, the progressive wing may in one day become a full fledged democratic socialist party, and the conservative Dems will become unaffiliated. American politics is becoming increasingly polarized and it's likely we'll see a 3 parties system in the near future, one extreme right, one center right and one left.
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you may have a point. It probabaly will be better for governing. Though I do believe the country is moving left.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
The whole thing will turn on its head one day, it's unsustainable. The GOP used the teabaggers to reclaim Congress and States legislations but that movement is hijacking their party and sooner or later will drive out all the moderates into the independents or Dems camp.

Conversely, on the Dems side, the progressive wing may in one day become a full fledged democratic socialist party, and the conservative Dems will become unaffiliated. American politics is becoming increasingly polarized and it's likely we'll see a 3 parties system in the near future, one extreme right, one center right and one left.
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There's a decent chance the GOP will fracture into two elements since the establishment and conservative wings can't seem to see eye to eye. The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because both sides know very well that doing so now would gift the Dems the Congress and Presidency, whereas a bifurcated GOP with both elements still within it, slows that process down and gives Republicans some chance to have a say in big elections. Trump is obviously a complete outlier in all of this, in that he is more a Dem than Republican who is using the GOP to get elected.

The Dems don't yet have enough consensus for a full on socialist platform as it would estrange the political independent/centrist vote and help the GOP, although that will change in the future since as Red Dreams said, the country is gradually drifting left and one more Dem President (Hillary or Sanders) would almost certainly codify that with a couple of new Supreme Court justices who would almost surely strike down things like Citizens United and other laws.
 
I don't really buy that America is moving left. On social issues, yes, but economically,more or less a throw back to 19th century protectionism is preferred by the majority if the rise of Trump and Sanders is anything to go by. Obviously this is from the perspective of an outsider looking in so I might well be wrong, but imo it's not a simple case of Republicans in disarray and the Dems keep getting stronger. Both parties have ideological issues that if go unsolved will fracture them in the future.
 
Raoul said:
There's a decent chance the GOP will fracture into two elements since the establishment and conservative wings can't seem to see eye to eye. The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because both sides know very well that doing so now would gift the Dems the Congress and Presidency, whereas a bifurcated GOP with both elements still within it, slows that process down and gives Republicans some chance to have a say in big elections. Trump is obviously a complete outlier in all of this, in that he is more a Dem than Republican who is using the GOP to get elected.

The Dems don't yet have enough consensus for a full on socialist platform as it would estrange the political independent/centrist vote and help the GOP, although that will change in the future since as Red Dreams said, the country is gradually drifting left and one more Dem President (Hillary or Sanders) would almost certainly codify that with a couple of new Supreme Court justices who would almost surely strike down things like Citizens United and other laws.
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Agree with much of what you say. As for the GOP, because they do not want to become irrelevent, and still want to govern, I think they may try and dry up the Tea Party of funding for elections. The moderates want to cut deals. This may be the first approach. The Democratic party with a coalition of progressives/liberals, minorities and moderate/centerist voters will get larger simply because of the changing demographics. Even now the Blue color voters tend to vote mostly Republican and tbh the Dems don't really run for their votes. Hillary may be the last of the old Center left candidate. The economic reality hitting ordinary people just trying to make ends meet will force changes. The Supreme Court judges will be a big part. We live in interesting times. This election will be a see change.
 
I really hope Bernie wins Iowa. That will have a snowball effect and he will then have a bigger chance of winning NH as well. Polls are giving Hillary a slight lead so far. Her campaign is much bigger and stronger financially. Apparently her campaign has lots of buses to ferry caucus goers to polling booths during the caucus and such. Sanders' campaign which only takes individual small donation can in no way match that.

Come on Sanders! Feel the Bern everyone!
 
Nikhil said:
I really hope Bernie wins Iowa. That will have a snowball effect and he will then have a bigger chance of winning NH as well. Polls are giving Hillary a slight lead so far. Her campaign is much bigger and stronger financially. Apparently her campaign has lots of buses to ferry caucus goers to polling booths during the caucus and such. Sanders' campaign which only takes individual small donation can in no way match that.

Come on Sanders! Feel the Bern everyone!
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His campaign isn't lacking in money, in 2015 he raised about $75m.
 
Red Dreams said:
several times I've heard this. A Republican who wants to vote for Trump will vote for Sanders as a second choice.

have not heard the reverse from a Democrat though.
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I assume they just like the sort of more anti-establishment type candidate who speaks their mind? Even though the two are obviously massively different.
 
Prediction time:
In terms of delegates, Iowa goes 60-40 to Hillary.
1. Bad weather
2. Some colleges are not giving holidays while Hillary's supporters tend to be (much) older
3. She has stopped the decline in her numbers so the momentum is stagnant for both
4. The first-timers supporting Bernie will not be used to the tricks you need during the caucus (join the MoM camp to give them 15% and reduce Hillary's delegates in districts where she is far ahead, etc)

Which means that Bernie still wins NH but by <10 points, not the 20+ he needs (which the latest polls are showing) to really make a statement.
 


Cruz busted for lying and not taking it well - on FOX of all places

Republicans complaining about the rich getting richer lololol
 
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My God, he's detestable.

Palin on the Today Show! Haha...hilarious. Lots of words but zero sense....I love watching her stream of consciousness rants.
 
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and after all this...it's essentially a straw poll.

Iowa won't be pledging delegates for ages....heh.

Still - on the republican side, it will hopefully start to spell the end for some of the idiots hanging on for no reason.
 
I've been reading this thread pretty regularly lately and still can't understand anything. Primaries, Caucuses, Delegates, Iowa, New Hampshire, some can vote, others can't - oh, and the actual election is 10 months away? Seems like such an unnecessarily complicated process.
 
Scarecrow said:
I've been reading this thread pretty regularly lately and still can't understand anything. Primaries, Caucuses, Delegates, Iowa, New Hampshire, some can vote, others can't - oh, and the actual election is 10 months away? Seems like such an unnecessarily complicated process.
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And the best bit is...there are actually only about 25% of the States come into the equation when it comes to the election. The remaining States are foregone conclusions.

For example, no Republican is going to bother with States like NY or California - that's 29 and 55 electoral college votes respectively. Similarly, there are red states, which the democrats have zero chance of winning atm - Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina

States that swing victory one way or the other - Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania - there are a couple more.
 
Grinner said:
So it's only about 100,000 people who actually vote tonight?
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I think so, I was watching CNN and FOX for a bit before work and they were both saying usually around 140-160,000 and both saying any higher (180,000+) can only be good for Trump because he will be attracting and mobilising new voters to the caucus.
 
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