The work the Red Sox have done the past five months earned them a 2 ½-game lead in the American League wild card. But their most significant advantage may lie in the future -- starting tonight in the first of a two-game series against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway -- and not the past.
The Red Sox have 25 games remaining over eight series – against the Orioles, the Rays, the Angels, the Orioles again, the Royals, the Yankees, the Blue Jays, and the Indians.
That’s six games against baseball’s best, and 19 games against the American League’s true dregs. The average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .466; on average, the Red Sox will play a 75-win 25 times.
The schedule may even be easier than that. The Blue Jays are 34-62 since May 19. The Rays unloaded Scott Kazmir. The Orioles traded Aubrey Huff and George Sherrill. The Royals are a special kind of mess.
The Rangers, meanwhile, face a much more challenging schedule. They get to play the Indians three times, including twice today, and the Athletics three times. But they have to play the Angels seven times and the Mariners six times. The average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .510; on average; the Rangers will play an 83-win team 26 times.
By losing of three of four against the reeling White Sox this weekend in Chicago, the Red Sox proved how they play will matter more than who they play. But with less than a month left and the Sox still vying with the Rangers, they have an easier path to the playoffs than their main competition.
