Cracking window,only thing it lacks is a RB and can we afford to leave Osimhen for Chelsea
Everything depends on who buys us and how quickly the takeover is done;
Scenario A - The Glaziers still own us, we have no cash and the club is losing money at the tune of £100-120m per year so more debt on club, higher interest payments and a 90% FFP rule only for this summer with no cash in the bank to do much. The club would panic have a fire sale to clear the decks quickly offering - Maguire(20m), Mctominay(20M), Henderson (20m) Teles (8m), E Baily (7m), F Pellistri(loan),
Due to Henderson and Mctominay not costing the club anything they are profit on our amortised budget; Eg The combined £40m over 4 year contracts means we have £10m per year or £50m added to ours sales budget on a 5 year contract. The others apart from Bailey simply cancel each other out as his contract was renewed so you might add another £10m to budget. When you factor in new reduced contracts like De Gea and leaving plus the rumoured budget of £80m you would have about £150m in total.
- GK / D Raya (20m)
- CM / A Rabiot (Free)
- CB / J Timbor or M Guehi or F Tomari (35m)
- CF / G Ramos (80m)
- AM / Sabitzer (15m)
- W Zaha or MRheus (Free)
The problem is the speed at which this would be done, they would only get the frees done early and others transfers dependent on 1. Player sales and 2 CL qualification not guaranteed with oiur current form and injuries.
Scenario B - SJR/Ineos take over, he appoints his man to get best in class, most transfers are halted apart from obvious ones. Players sales going and he Targets one huge Marquee player, whilst listening to what ETH has to say but tells him Fletcher, Murtourgh and Arnold will be gone soon so he can only get 3/4 players at the value of £200m which is not dependent on sales and 1 or 2 more if he sells 3 or 4 players like Maguire, Telles, Mctominay, Bailey,
We Keep D Henderson and he has the chance to be number 1, we buy ;
- CB / J Timber, F Tomari or M Guehy £35m
- CM/DM / A Rabiot
- AM/N10 / MKudas 45m
- CF/ V osimhen £120m
- E Ferguson (35m) if sales
Scenario C - The Qatar bid is successful by 1st June, this would pose a problem to SJR as he looks to appoint Dave Brailsford as his right hand man and then change all the Exec board like Arnold, Murtourgh, delaying potential transfers. The Qatar will want the same thing but they will be fully focused on the summer window and encourage deals like Victor Osimhen, FDJ, N Barello , J Gvardiol, K M Jae. They would have already have been lining up some of these players from May onwards, that’s how they work and they will want a full quick fix ; the debt will be paid off, player sales not key to moving in the market quickly as they will know they have to get 3 or 4 players out but the easiest options are Mctominay and Henderson as they cost the club nothing with Maguire conveniently going to PSG at the end of the summer for £40m on a 4 year contract giving the club a net profit on what we owe for the next two years.
The Transfer budget could be £350-400m under Qatar which is £70-80m amortised over 5 years against our allowed £500m of 90% (Wages £370m, Agent Fees £30m and Net amortised transfer of £58m after sales of Maguire, Mctominay, Teles, Bailey and Henderson cap to expected turnover of £550m (458/460m) 82-83% meaning they would have to do some creative accounting in season 24/25 but if we have CL and new shirt sponsorship deal turnover will grow to £650m easily.
- GK / D Costa (50m)
- RB / Dumfries or Frimpong (40m)
- CB / J Timber, F Tomari or M Guehy 40m)
- CM:N8/ FDJ or N Barello £60m
- DM/CM / A Rabiot (Free)
- AM/N10 / M Kudas (45m)
- CF / V Osimhen or H Kane (120m)
- RW / W Zaha (Free)
The most important thing for ETH is to finish the season strongly , a top 3 finish and another cup should cement his position and power who ever comes in, a failure to land top 4 could mean we see a new manager especially under Qatar or SJR so now the club needs to get back to wining in the PL and we need to ensure we don’t lose to Newcastle or Spurs in the run in.
… but you are not there yet.
