Yeah I’ll say it: The Relegation Thread

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People keep dismissing it but they are kind of mixing the ETH/Ruud/Amorim tenures into one. Looking at it only with Amorim’s stats we are going to be right in the mix - every game seems like we will drop points right now.
 
Camilo said:
Nobody to score goals?! We've got our first choice striker, first choice (arguably) no 10s and first choice wingbacks available!
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Yeah they don't know how to score goals, which is why we're 15th. Also Amad is our first choice 10 and he's out
 
We might just about survive this season although I wouldn't put my house on us winning any games in the league between now and the end of the season, and that includes Ipswich, Leicester and Wolves. We are THAT bad. On the law of averages, we might scrape an unexpected win somewhere which might keep us up.

Next season, on a continuation of the form of the last 18 months, and with bad recruitment in the attacking department, we're going to be right in the relegation shit, let nobody be in any doubt.

Everton have been almost relegated a few times in the last decade, and our squad is probably as bad as any of theirs. A keeper that can't save shots. A midfield that can't run. Strikers who can't score. So why couldn't we be dragged into a relegation fight?
 
While the OP is not doom mongering, there are such a shocking three clubs unable to get to even 29 points United have already amased.

Focus on cups, sack off the leage campaign.
 
We'll be okay because of the bottom three sides being so poor but yeah we're shocking. Struggle against every team in the league and can't score for toffee.

It's a disgrace that we're even having this discussion with the size of the club we are to be honest. Talk about fecking mismanagement.
 
There’s no real danger of relegation in my opinion. Not that it’s any consolation in a season that is shaping up to be the worst in most of our lifetimes.
 
DRJosh said:
So what’s happening now? Are we getting relegated or winning the Europa? Struggling to keep up here
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There's every chance we could win a cup this year despite playing like utter fecking trash for the majority of the season. It'd be pretty typical of our post Sir Alex years frankly.
 
With many teams having nothing to play for toward the end of the season, the relegation battlers may get more wins than expected and of course those same teams would raise their game against United
 
I’ve been having this debate with my dad for months. I can categorically say that we won’t get relegated this season, or the next, or the next, or the next, or the next….you get the idea. I mean, we outplayed Liverpool at Anfield. We beat high-flying Fulham twice. We beat City. We beat Arsenal in the cup. We beat Everton 4-0 in a period where they were taking points off every big team they played against (and still are).

Even now, despite the hysteria, we’re 12 points off 18th. Despite it feeling like we’ve not won a game since the cup final, I’ll stick my neck out there and say that we’re already safe. For lack of a better word, Ipswich and Leicester are simply too shit to win 4 games in 14. Are people not realising that Leicester have literally lost every week, aside from against Spurs, since the back end of 2024? In contrast, we’ve got a 60% win rate in 2025.

I actually did research on this for a dissertation a few years ago, and the chance of a club with our resources getting relegated is essentially zero. Due to the revenue we generate, we’ve simply got too many talented (but far from good) players to go down, as shown by the list I’ve given above of our “achievements” in our worst season since relegation in 1974, when it was actually remotely possible for a mega club to get relegated. Talent wise, the best ever team to go down in this millennium is Leicester 2022-23, and while that team was very decent, it still had many starting players who are hardly even Championship quality. Take the likes of Danny Ward and Wout Faes as the examples.

It would take a perfect storm with regard to injuries, a dressing room mutiny akin to France 2010, points deductions etc to put us anywhere near danger, and that’s for the next 10-20 years. As for this season, my prediction is 40 points (3 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses) and 15th place. Don’t get me wrong, this post isn’t meant to be one of those faux-positivity gaslighting posts that I despise on Twitter. As per this prediction, I’m utterly disgusted with where we are, and for the first time today, I turned on Amorim for his cowardly in-game management. It’s just that I can see through all that to know that we won’t get relegated.

Now, whether a relegation would actually be all that bad is a different matter. Within my debates with my dad, we’ve found common ground that for the obvious reasons that it would probably force the Glazers and even INEOS, all of whom have zero interest in football, to sell the club, it probably would be for the best to spend one season in the second tier. Instead, we’re currently stuck in a loop of mediocrity that I cannot see a feasible way out of.
 
Those that dismiss the possibility of relegation. Do you not think that fans were saying the same thing back in the 70’s? The way we are playing right now, I don’t know where the next win is coming from in the league. We are in free fall and we are in big fecking trouble.

In all likelihood we won’t get relegated, but the mere fact that it’s being discussed is absolutely shocking for a club of this size and stature.
 
Garethw said:
Those that dismiss the possibility of relegation. Do you not think that fans were saying the same thing back in the 70’s? The way we are playing right now, I don’t know where the next win is coming from in the league. We are in free fall and we are in big fecking trouble.

In all likelihood we won’t get relegated, but the mere fact that it’s being discussed is absolutely shocking for a club of this size and stature.
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It is shameful and I think the players know that they're going to be a part of the worst United team in the PL era if things don't change drastically (I think Dalot mentioned as much a few weeks back). The result against Spurs wasn't anything to do with a lack of effort though, rather a lack of quality and cohesion.

I'm honestly not worried too much about relegation as I don't think it will happen. We'll nick a few wins here and there, and hopefully keep going in the Europa League, but if this season isn't the most serious wake up call imaginable for the club then god help us.
 
Won't happen. The current bottom 3 will not make it out of there.
 
We won't get relegated. Not because I'm optimistic but mathematically speaking we're very safe since the bottom 3 is already way behind

But that's nothing to be proud of. Manchester United safe from relegation. Good Lord
 
The gap between us and Leicester should be enough; Ipswich however are a very spirited side with an incredibly effective player in Delap so they would be the danger - they'll have closed the gap by the end of the season, but enough to relegate us?

We're not going to get past 40 points, but avoid defeat to Ipswich at home and we should survive. The Everton game is already lost really, so the focus now probably should be on Ipswich, especially given our injury list.

But I doubt we'll do much to save ourselves, so we're relying on Ipswich to drop enough points for the current gap between us and them to be sufficient.

Next season however...
 
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Bring it on if it means we get rid of the Glazers. Their plundering of this club deserves no less.
 
It needed to be one of those years where you need a lot of points to survive. I just checked for fun, like 10 years ago you needed 38 points to survive. If it had been that year then i would have been worried.

But too many shitty teams this season. Wolves is not even bottom 3 with 19 points. Two of the bottom 4 teams are not going to catch us.
 
If it ever did somehow come down to us needing a win on the last day of the season I would bet against this squad achieving that. We don't have any fight in us
 
Honestly if we're only 6pts away from relegation with only 5 games to play and we're trending down, I don't know if Amorim is still the coach. Most likely he'd be fired before we get that close. This team would be in catastrophic mode if they get relegated so I doubt they even think of risking it

Edit: Actually looking at the next 4 PL games, if he can't get 2 wins and a draw I think there will be huge alarm bells and talks of him getting fired during the international break
 
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These guys got Lausanne relegated a million times. They are specialists in failing
 
You are not even close to getting relegated. You suck, but you don’t suck that bad.
 
We have a chronically bad goalkeeper and no premier league level striker, meaning we fire a lot of blanks and let in a lot of soft goals.

Don't rule it out.
 
HTG said:
You are not even close to getting relegated. You suck, but you don’t suck that bad.
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There’s a possible scenario where if Ipswich beat spurs and we lose to Everton (neither that unlikely), they can then get to within 6points of us if they then beat us with 11 games left.
 
HTG said:
You are not even close to getting relegated. You suck, but you don’t suck that bad.
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If we still had Amad, I might agree with you. We only have three fit forwards - Hojlund, Zirkzee and Garnacho - they have 1 goal between them in their last combined 46 appearances.
 
Infra-red said:
If we still had Amad, I might agree with you. We only have three fit forwards - Hojlund, Zirkzee and Garnacho - they have 1 goal between them in their last combined 46 appearances.
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You could play me as a forward and you would still not get relegated. You’re 12 points away from relegation. Even if you don’t win another point, which is not going to happen, you’d have a good chance of staying in the league.
 
Leicester and Ipswich are on course for around 26 points using their current points per game average (0.68). Ours is around 1.16 looking across the whole season and 1 just looking at Amorim.. unless we see a continuous drop of form and one of them (and wolves) massively improve, we are fine
 
We're already basically safe.

Ipswich and Leicester are on 17pts after 23 games. At that rate, they will score 28pts by the end of the season. We have 29pts.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
There’s a possible scenario where if Ipswich beat spurs and we lose to Everton (neither that unlikely), they can then get to within 6points of us if they then beat us with 11 games left.
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Ipswich are playing some good football and carry a goal threat. So do Wolves. It’s crazy people aren’t considering these and looking at the fixtures. I don’t see us scoring 6 league goals before the end of the season and maybe picking up 2 points. Ipswich can make up 14 points on us if they plug away and keep improving.
Club deserves to be relegated for being so poorly run.
 
As others have pointed out, we could realostically lose every remaining game and not be relegated. Securing only a handful of points more would secure survival. Odds of relegation infinitely small.

The more pertinent question is whether we will face a relegation battle next season...
 
Trequarista10 said:
As others have pointed out, we could realostically lose every remaining game and not be relegated. Securing only a handful of points more would secure survival. Odds of relegation infinitely small.

The more pertinent question is whether we will face a relegation battle next season...
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If we don't improve, and the promoted teams are half decent, then we would of course find ourselves in a relegation battle. It'd be arrogant to think it could never happen to us. Although I'd be astonished if we're as bad next season as we are now
 
So in an attempt to think it through the situation. It’s reasonable to assume that the bottom 3 may beat each other. Obviously a draw is possible, as is a victory.
Let’s take Leicester. I think they play Iswich and Southampton. Let’s say they win, 6 points.
Leicester also play united. Wouldn’t be shock of the year if they took three points from united. Assuming united have scored nothing Leicester now are 1 point behind united.
It’s unlikely united will get relegated but not “infinitely” so.
 
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