I imagine the xG on Fred's goal was actually quite low though, it was probably the hardest opportunity we made to score.
xG under Ralf
- Thread starter Pogue Mahone
- Start date
xG is useful but for single games you're going to step in a lot of landmines if you interpret the xG number as "the number of goals you should have scored after rounding out the decimal."
Ronaldo and Elanga had two very good chances.
What’s does xG even mean?
You guys are on a different level to me.
I can just imagine talking to old mates about xG, wouldn’t go down well!
You guys are on a different level to me.
I can just imagine talking to old mates about xG, wouldn’t go down well!
I also would have thought the difference would be larger and that we accumulated more.
0.06 according to fotmob.
Ronaldo's was 0.71 and Elanga's miss was 0.26.
It's really just a numberification of saying things like "Misslington played really well but their players couldn't find the empty net" or "Clinical Town FC didn't do shit all game but Good Player saved them with his unlikely finish".
Right ok, I sort of understand.
Thank you anyway for the explanation, I appreciate that.
It's saying that on average United would score 2.16 goals based on the chances they've created. It's an early attempt to quantify football with numbers but is very noisy and shouldn't be relied upon itself. But it's somewhat helpful to identify a run of good luck by consistently outperforming the xG and vice versa.
Thank you for the further explanation, I sort of understand it and can understand it being useful for stats etc.
Gives a measure of how well the team is performing as a unit.
it does feel low, Ronaldo's chance must have been at least 0.7 you'd think
The Rodrigo fluke with an xG of 0.02 and a xGOT of 0.71. That's what luck looks like.
What’s xg,xga, xgd, ddp?
What was Elanga’s goal?
0.25.
Post GW12 when Ole got fired:
Now:
Nothing you would wouldn't expect but backs up the point that underlying performances have certainly improved along with results.
Now:
Nothing you would wouldn't expect but backs up the point that underlying performances have certainly improved along with results.
FBref have it 2.7 - 1.5
Well at least we're consistently creating chances.
*weeps*
*weeps*
SACK rangnick now.
Why hasn't he coached our forwards to put away open goals ? Get them to shoot in open goals in training.
Even the resident caftard can coach better than rangnick, he's not fit to lace ole shoes.
/s
Why hasn't he coached our forwards to put away open goals ? Get them to shoot in open goals in training.
Even the resident caftard can coach better than rangnick, he's not fit to lace ole shoes.
/s
Drunk?
It felt like a 0-0 draw against Burnley at Old Trafford back in 2016/17, just without goalkeeper making crazy saves like Heaton did back then.
Sarcasm.
I wonder what the xG was from 20 minutes onwards. It felt like the quality of chances really got worse and worse throughout the match.
That's a good question. We had some great chances in first 20 minutes. Dominated other 70 as well but didn't create big opportunities.
Post GW12 when Ole got fired:
Now:
Nothing you would wouldn't expect but backs up the point that underlying performances have certainly improved along with results.
There's no doubt that we have improved, clear to see.
From a very low bar, it has to be said.
Notice how the xG apologists didn't bump this thread after the Atletico game. Atletico, the only half decent team we've faced in 2.5 months under Ralf. Guess it doesn't fit a certain agenda.
Oh yes, I'm in no way saying it's good enough just that we aren't in free fall anymore.
xG is about the statistical "average" player. Outperforming your xG doesn't necessarily mean you have just luck (though that can certainly be the case too), it can just as easily mean that you have simply above average quality which is why many top teams outperform their xG.
Yet over time, the best strikers don't really outperform their xGs by more than about 10%. Look at the chart posted by bosnian_red a few pages back I think it was.
https://www.redcafe.net/threads/xg-under-ralf.467969/page-7#post-28488636
We were poor. Anyone who thinks xG is useful, would probably told you as much. Weird post.
The last graph shows it all. Just a shame Ole's squad building was utter crap and we are left with no proper strikers. Otherwise we'd have made it count much more often
Just taking sone of the games in the last month:
Watford 22 shots 3 on target 0 goals
Burnley 22 shots 5 on target 1 goal
Middlesborough 30 shots 9 on target 1 goal
West Ham 18 shots 3 on target 1 goal
Brighton 19 shots 7 on target 2 goals
111 shots 27 on target 5 goals is a shocking conversion rate with the likes of Ronaldo, Bruno, Rashford, Sancho and Pogba having played a fair majority of the games.
Watford 22 shots 3 on target 0 goals
Burnley 22 shots 5 on target 1 goal
Middlesborough 30 shots 9 on target 1 goal
West Ham 18 shots 3 on target 1 goal
Brighton 19 shots 7 on target 2 goals
111 shots 27 on target 5 goals is a shocking conversion rate with the likes of Ronaldo, Bruno, Rashford, Sancho and Pogba having played a fair majority of the games.
To be fair, he couldn't predict, what was going to happen with Rashford and Greenwood, we lost a lot of goals with Rashford completely losing his confidence and ability, and Greenwood doing what he did. On top of that he wanted to sign Haaland. Instead he got Ronaldo and we had to beg Cavani to stay. Not that he was great recruitment wise, but I don't think he's solely to blame for what has went wrong this season.
We are quite inefficient and not playing that well either.
No way we will get top 4 now or win CL so season is a massive mega failure.
No way we will get top 4 now or win CL so season is a massive mega failure.
Refs then. Also, is xP a thing? I mean expected penalties rewarded. Would be interesting to see. We have received 3, Liverpool has 6. How many appeals we have I don't know.
We're still doing well for that xG medal under Ralf.
In all seriousness today was silly, we had complete control, Watford had nothing going on and we allowed them to escape through our own profligacy.
The stats very much follow the obvious conclusion that this manager knows what he is doing and has much improved our play but we are hamstrung by a rather sorry bunch.
In all seriousness today was silly, we had complete control, Watford had nothing going on and we allowed them to escape through our own profligacy.
The stats very much follow the obvious conclusion that this manager knows what he is doing and has much improved our play but we are hamstrung by a rather sorry bunch.