At least all that outlay got him somewhere. Think the number of pounds isn't the relevant detail for us. It is whether or not we find a way to spend it clever and to go for players who match each other under a plan.
xG under Ralf
- Thread starter Pogue Mahone
- Start date
I knew that xG considered the part of the body that you took the shot with, I just forgot to include that.
However, I stand corrected about the position of the keeper and other players. I wasn’t aware that there were xG models that accounted for that - that is very interesting. Though, in my defence, Statsbomb does claim to be pretty much unique in this regard, so it would seem most xG models work the way I described them.
This is a far more useful model, however it does raise a question; when we quote an xG score - what model are we using?
This is in addition to the other main point I mentioned about xG only accounting for registered shots taken. They don’t represent things such as:
- An attacker who slips when through on goal
- A cutback missed by millimetres
- An unnecessary offside from a mistimed run
- A poor final ball to a forward with the goal gaping
Of course, over time, a team that created a large number of chances that are not covered by xG would likely also create a large number of chances that the metric does represent. So in the long term, xG is an incredibly useful statistic.
However, in an individual match, it is possible that xG doesn’t always match “the eye test” because of some of its inherent limitations.
It should always match. High xG and bad finishing leads to people calling out the strikers for it, slightly misplaced passes that don't appear in xG will lead to the playmakers being criticised based on the eye test. It's just a different aspect of the game that would be measured by another stat.
That's my hope as well. The only potential issue here is that we've had mostly significantly inferior opposition and that might skew the data. We'll have to see a few big games and then average out.
You’re right of course, and my main point originally was that it should be obvious to anyone that if we need six or seven players to be brought in to the club that they can’t all cost £100m if you want to do it in one summer or two. You have to be extremely savvy (and lucky) to get six players in who all fit the system for under £250m. But if you do that, you’re much better equipped than if you were to buy three £100m players who may or may not fit the team’s style and which may leave the squad with gaping holes still.
If we were to spend £300m this summer on Kane, Rice and say de Ligt, we would still need another few players (and be lucky with the guys bought being successful and fit) to comfortably get into the top four.
2.64 - 1.16 tonight according to infogol. Thought we'd be a bit higher but really should've scored the second a lot, lot sooner. We were at 2.17 before Bruno's goal.
With 35min against a 10men Brighton team which didn't really started parking the bus. The first chance of the game (should account for quite a bit of that 2.17) came from a mistake from defender doodling with the ball...
It is great to see the xG rising a bit. We are getting more oppportunities, but I have some difficulties calling it "creating chances"...
It was ten men because we forced errors on them.
But forcing errors (if we did that) isn't the same as creating chances. Both are good things but it isn't the same.
So what? XG is largely a combination of the two.
First chance (0.41xG) came from a defender missing his touch, but you have to be there around him to nick it. It's like Sancho's goal v Chelsea when Jorginho miscontrolled it. If you don't have the mindset to be close to the defenders when they are playing the ball then you'll never capitalise on those errors. First goal (0.08 xG) came from us pressing Bissouma. Red card came from Elanga pressing the defender. Second goal came from Bruno pressing MacAllister and winning the ball. Surely you have to see the effect that Ralf's management is having in terms of leading to chances being created?
Yeah today is definitely a rough one where they gifted us multiple big chances and it wasn't a good performance at all. Sometimes you need the luck though. We've been rock bottom with confidence this season.
I think you have a point. However, that's how Ralf's teams typically work, they generate a high number of their chances after turnovers. We're not going to pick teams apart for our chances. It's similar to the Liverpool model except they're also very capable of creating chances via set pieces and crosses, something we still lack the ability to do unfortunately.
I see an effect of course. I see that we are more stable, cutting the brainfarts. But in terms of resilience, there isn't much to be spectacularly proud of. As soon as the tempo has been upped by Brighton (or So'ton) we started getting shaky at the back. And chance creation in my eyes stopped. You are right too - we increased the awareness and therefor the number of forced mistakes. And it is fine, I don't need tiki taka when we can play forceful and steam rushing opponents. But we don't. We usually sit back (not parking the bus but in a controlled reserved shape).
I know many on here want to see positive trends. They are there but, at least to me, they are small.
The most devastating to me is seeing Southhampton and Brighton being so courageous on the ball. So comfortable, so inventive. To think what they do with their players is remarkable. They may have the greatest games of their respective seasons, I don't know, but comparing it to us is depressing.
Yeah you are right, RR is known for that and probably he is somewhat restricted by our personnel. It is worrying though as the level of "force" we use is homeopatic and bigger teams won't struggle with that.
Yeah, agreed. Be interesting to see how we match up against Atletico, first really big test for us under Rangnick.
To be fair, both sides have good managers. I get the feeling if we gave Rangnick a season or two then we'd be equally comfortable and courageous. Not that I'm advocating him getting the full time gig as there looks to be some considerably better options on the market, come summer.
Agreed on both.
Would love to have your optimism. Seeing Dalot, Lindelof and Maguire handle the ball like bomb with motion sensor in the first half was terrifying.
Leeds and Atletico next who conceded plenty of goals never mind chances.
we should really be eating up the goal, especially with Bruno and Ronaldo hopefully kicking on.
we should really be eating up the goal, especially with Bruno and Ronaldo hopefully kicking on.
It’s so obvious things have improved significantly and it’s night and day from the shambles under Ole.
The fans going after the manager are genuine trash, especially given the long standing issues with these players.
The fans going after the manager are genuine trash, especially given the long standing issues with these players.
I feel like if we can land the first blow against Atletico next week then won't be so easy for them to be so solid defensively
City scored 5 from xG of 2.46 against a better opponent than brighton.
We scored 2 from xG of 2.57 really tells you the difference in quality of finishing, we need to keep in mind we play with a world class striker and city doesn’t.
We scored 2 from xG of 2.57 really tells you the difference in quality of finishing, we need to keep in mind we play with a world class striker and city doesn’t.
We're going to win the post-Ralf-appointment xG award. Come on lads!
That’s a strange one, I would not have guessed it was that close at all.
Their goal was about 0.8. though so was Ronaldo's miss. Caley has it 1.6 - 2.5 anyway which is good.
Same. Maybe corners for us are an xG of -1
Nor me…Ronaldo and Elanga missed absolute sitters, on top of the four goals, whilst I’m struggling to think of any outstanding chances missed by Leeds, and one of their two goals was a speculative cross.
We definitely played much better than that xG summary suggests.
I never thought they were dominant, just our defensive mistakes made us vulnerable.
I never thought they were dominant, just our defensive mistakes made us vulnerable.
Klich was on one man mission to drag down xG. Did basically backpass into De Gea from centre of goal and also dragged a shot poorly wide. Aside from that Leeds didn't create much and one of the goals was a mishit cross that happens once a season.
Don't get how Man. United's is so low when Elanga missed similar chance to his goal with similar backpass shot and Sancho had one deflected wide from similar position to what Fred scored from. And that was just second half.
The metric moves in mysterious ways sometimes.
I also immediately felt that was way too low. We created a lot of great chances. We played them off the park tbh. De Gea being a shambles made it closer than it had any right to be.
Dave was shambles??
xG is such utter bollocks.
De Gea was a shambles?
What’s the xG table since Ralf was appointed?
Enlightening comment. Tell us more.
I’m also assuming xG wouldn’t have taken into account for the fact that Elanga could have taken a touch and had a far higher xG chance.
isn't 2.16 a bit low? We could've scored 5 or 6 today.